The Toronto Raptors need a win, and we could all use a distraction. The latter will at least come to fruition for a couple of hours on Tuesday, as the New Orleans Pelicans visit the Air Canada Centre. No game is a must-win, but coming off of one of their most inexcusable losses of the season and losers of six of their last seven and 11 of their last 18, the Raptors could really use it. They have been varying degrees of bad for over a month now, and it needs to stop this week. With a trip to Boston looming right after, it probably needs to stop right here.
The Pelicans, meanwhile, are only in a slightly better place. They’ve won three of six, including terrific victories against the Cavaliers and Spurs. They’ve also been home for six games, though, and dropped a couple of winnable games on that stand. At 19-29, they’re hardly in a good place, but they can at least hang their hat on defense. They also possess the biggest matchup problem in this game, representing perhaps the biggest edge at any position on the floor.
In other words, nothing will be easy. Nothing should be when you’re in the malaise the Raptors find themselves in. A suddenly average offense and a consistently mediocre defense probably won’t get it done here. The Raptors need to find another gear on each side of the ball, and as reductive as it is to say, it starts with their energy level.
The game tips off at 7 p.m. (NOT 7:30 – the time was changed) on TSN 1/4 and Sportsnet 590.
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To help set the stage, we reached out to Oleh Kosel of The Bird Writes, who was kind enough to help us out.
Blake Murphy: Anthony Davis has somehow missed three consecutive meetings in Toronto. It’s a real shame for Raptors fans, even if it’s made the likelihood of victories a little higher. Davis is expected to play on Tuesday. It’s obvious he’s an All-Star and one of the best players on the planet, but for Raptors fans who haven’t seen him intimately in a while, what about his offensive game stands out as the most difficult from a matchup perspective? Or is “ridiculous basketball unicorn” just kind of an all-encompassing matchup nightmare?
Oleh Kosel: I’m not all that fond of the unicorn term — frankly because it’s been tossed around to describe a few too many — but there’s no denying it serves the intended purpose of aptly describing Anthony Davis. His skillset and unique physical attributes are quite possibly the most tantalizing in the game. He can overwhelm any sized defender from any part of the floor if he so chooses, while locking down an opponent on the other end, even if matched up against a solid player on the perimeter. For these reasons, nothing in particular stands out because the total package is so damn good!
Blake Murphy: At 19-29, the Pelicans have once again underperformed. And yet they’re only a few games out of a playoff spot. There’s no chance this franchise does anything but push forward for a near-term playoff berth, right? Davis is young, but they seem pot-committed at this point to staying in win-now mode rather than taking a step back.
Oleh Kosel: Yep, that’s the correct assessment. The front office has shown time and again that they’re primarily interested in pushing for postseasons. Although Dell Demps focused on the process rather than a playoff berth back on media day, the term was more meant to lower expectation levels to give the incomplete cast a chance to come together and develop a blue-collar attitude rather than signal the team is in the midst of any rebuild.
Blake Murphy: I, for one, am shocked that Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans have missed time due to injury. Holiday’s play, when healthy, has stood out in particular. How different a team is this with those two guys healthy to help carry the load with Davis?
Oleh Kosel: When Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday are right and playing alongside Anthony Davis, the trio has been magical. For instance, last season this three-man lineup had an astounding +23.5 net rating in 160 minutes, and they’ve always maintained a positive net through their four years together. The union has been a little slow to display the explosiveness so far this season, but that was to be expected considering Evans 11-month layoff and his current minutes restriction. However, if they largely manage to stay healthy, it will probably be the single biggest reason they sneak into the 2017 playoffs as the 8th seed.
Blake Murphy: Terrence Jones was a popular “why not buy low on this guy” name throughout the offseason, and his market tanked far below what I think most expected. He’s been a huge find, in a value-per-dollar sense, for the Pelicans. Is there any lingering indication why everyone was so cool on him? Or has this been a pretty unqualified success?
Oleh Kosel: Reportedly, a lot of teams were interested in Terrence Jones, but none were offering him anything significantly greater than the Pelicans so he decided to hook up with his UK alum buddy, Anthony Davis. Of course, now that he’s proven teams shouldn’t have put away the pocketbooks, it’s easy to go back and point fingers, but over the summer, there were a lot of legitimate questions about his health, durability and overall effectiveness based on his final two years in Houston.
Blake Murphy: The Pelicans have shot to a top-10 defense thanks to a somewhat conservative style that keeps teams off the line but also doesn’t commit many turnovers. Do you think they’ll tweak the aggression level against a Raptors team that barrels to the rim to try to draw fouls at every chance, or will they sit back and trust their ability to prevent penetration, even through an endless number of screens?
Oleh Kosel: It’s difficult to imagine Darren Erman, the Pelicans defensive mastermind, make any substantial strategic changes before the matchup so I expect the team will rely on what’s gotten them here: a versatile small-ball lineup that switches most pick-and-rolls. Holiday, Davis and Solomon Hill are all outstanding defenders who can guard any number of positions and secondary role players like E’Twaun Moore and Dante Cunningham are also very reliable. I don’t expect the Pelicans to completely shutdown Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, but I think they’ll make them work harder and shoot more contested shots than they’re accustomed to.
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Raptors updates
The Raptors have finally gotten to #FullSquad status for the first time all year, not that it made a lick of difference on Sunday. Sure, Bruno Caboclo is on assignment with Raptors 905, but two players are going to be inactive, anyway, and all the Raptors are really out is his amazing new cornrows. Everyone else is here, and as the team works to rediscover their chemistry, the excuses about injuries are in the rear-view mirror and the nods to the time it takes to re-acclimate will become weaker and weaker.
The biggest question still facing the Raptors, then, is what the hell they can do about their fonrtcourt rotation. Here’s an idea: Tether Patrick Patterson and Jonas Valanciunas as much as you can, and if you’re going to play Jared Sullinger or Pascal Siakam, play them with Patterson (if his minutes restriction is up) or Lucas Nogueira. The data is pretty straightforward, even if the samples are small, and it tends to back up the logic. The strengths and weaknesses of Patterson and Valanciunas/Sullinger line up, as do the strengths and weaknesses of Nogueira and Siakam (although you could probably get away with playing Nogueira with anyone, weird though that would have sounded a few months ago). And the Pelicans will play just one natural big at least some of the time, so there’s an option to downsize (almost always a good option if it means more Norman Powell-Terrence Ross lineups).
Anyway, I’m in favor of Patterson remaining a starter, but Dwane Casey seemed to hint at a potential return to the bench for him at practice Monday. Maybe I’m reading too much into, but to me, this sounded like a coach who thinks maybe the stability and certainty they had before, even if not the optimized 48-minute rotation, is what they need to get back on track. Whether that would mean Sullinger or Siakam starting is unclear, but it wouldn’t be shocking if Patterson wasn’t starting Tuesday. I’m not in favor of it, but I would understand it.
Far less important from today: Dwane Casey may have hinted at Patterson going back to the bench today. Not positive that's how to take this. pic.twitter.com/dOcQdWa7GU
— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) January 30, 2017
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, Fred VanVleet
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell, Delon Wright
SF: DeMarre Carroll,Terrence Ross
PF: Patrick Patterson, Jared Sullinger, Pascal Siakam
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Lucas Nogueira, Jakob Poeltl
TBD: None
ASSIGNED: Bruno Caboclo
OUT: None
Pelicans updates
The Pelicans are, surprisingly, as healthy as they get. With 13 healthy players, Alvin Gentry must be doing back flips. Of course, given this team’s luck over the last few years, he’d probably somehow injure a starter in the process.
Speaking of starters, the Pelicans start in an interesting way for a Raptors matchup. Both Solomon Hill and Dante Cunningham could conceivably see time on DeRozan, which means there’s likely to be a mismatch somewhere with rookie Buddy Hield. Lowry will have to deal with Jrue Holiday’s presence, which is always difficult. Going the other way, the Pelicans don’t have incredible spacing, but they’re a shade above average in 3-point volume and hit at a respectable 35.8-percent clip. Hill and Cunningham can’t be lost in transition, and so even if they’re not major matchup issues as individuals, the Raptors might not be able to get away with helping aggressively on perimeter penetration, their biggest weakness during this rough month.
Oleh pointed out the vaunted Holiday-Evans-Davis triumvirate, but they have a handful of dangerous lineups. Their top-four most used groups have positive net ratings, including their starters, who are a plus-6.6 in 154 minutes over 14 games together. The Raptors will need to start strong, because that’s a lineup that can really bottle up an offense.
PG: Jrue Holiday, Langston Galloway, Tim Frazier
SG: Buddy Hield, E’Twaun Moore
SF: Solomon Hill, Tyreke Evans
PF: Dante Cunningham, Terrence Jones
C: Anthony Davis, Donatas Motiejunas, Omer Asik, Alexis Ajinca
Assigned: Cheick Diallo
TBD: None
Out:Quincy Pondexter
The line
The Raptors are 8-point favorites, which is an awful lot of faith in a team playing the way they are. Sure, the Pelicans aren’t taking names, either, but it’s a hefty line. The over-under is sitting at 215.
