Note: This is a guest post from Louis Zatzman.
With the Raptors having played six games since the trade deadline, some trends are beginning to normalize with the team. There is noise in the numbers, sure, but we can learn a few things about the Raptors’ slapdash 4-2 record in the last six. Let’s dig into some stats that offer glimpses into this new team, sans Kyle Lowry. A few notes: the stats I’m using are only from the games played since Serge Ibaka and P.J Tucker joined the team. Furthermore, I’m excluding players who haven’t played much from lists of team leaders, such as Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet.
First and foremost, Ibaka is amazing. He is more for this team than even the most optimistic outlook projected. Let’s start on the offensive end, where his shooting at the four provides a much-needed outlet for slashing scorers like DeMar DeRozan, Cory Joseph, and Norman Powell. He’s shooting an incredible 45.7% on catch and shoot attempts and an unbelievable (but maybe unsustainable) 44.8% from three on a hearty 4.8 attempts a game. But he’s so much more than just a shooter. Ibaka has a robust 56.5% effective field goal percentage, but the truly impressive aspect is the variety in his ability to score. On the elbow, he leads the team in field goal percentage with a strong 55.6% mark. He’s shooting 58.3% in the post and 53.8% in the paint. He also excels in the more traditional role for Raptors bigs as a screen setter, providing an impressive and team-leading 3.5 screen assists a game.
On defense, Ibaka is even more important for the Raptors. He can effectively anchor a defense at the five or switch to the four to play with Valanciunas. He holds down the fort in the paint, contesting a team-leading 8.5 2-point shots a game and blocking 1.5 shots a game. More impressive is his ability to stay with jitterbug guards behind the 3-point line. He moves his feet incredibly well for a man of his size, running an average of 1.05 miles a game on defense. To put that in context, if that number held up over a season, Ibaka would be fourth in the league for centers, behind only Karl-Anthony Towns (1.16), Anthony Davis (1.12), and Marcin Gortat (1.08) for miles run on defense. Ibaka not only anchors the defense, but gets out and chases smaller guys with the best of them. Hand in hand with moving his feet, Ibaka also offers an incredible ability to defend the three. He contests an absurd 3.0 shots a game from behind the 3-point line. If that number held for a season, it would also put him in fourth place on the season for centers, behind only Al Horford (3.6) Towns (3.6) and Davis (3.5) for contesting 3-pointers. After a stop, he cleans the glass well, leading the team with 6.2 defensive rebounds a game. Ibaka can do it all on both sides of the ball.
Fortunately, Ibaka isn’t the only good thing going on for the Raps right now. As has been said and written by several Raptors commentators, the team now boasts a healthy array of switchy defenders who can stifle multiple positions. Some of the Raptors leaders in net rating are those players who can lock down on defense: Joseph has a team-leading 9.7 net rating, DeMarre Carroll a strong 7.6, Ibaka 4.5, Tucker 3.5, Delon Wright 1.6, and Powell 0.5. That’s a lot of different guys you can throw on the court and trust to outscore opponents of late.
Tucker in particular offers the Raptors a unique piece thanks to his excellent defense. Such stats are shaky, especially in small samples, but he offers a strong 100.2 defensive net rating, and players shoot a paltry 39.1% from the floor when Tucker matches up. He can guard multiple spots, and feasts on opponents when they try to make a move near him. If you have face blindness, Tucker can look like Kawhi Leonard on some stops, bending opponents to his will and making their offensive talents look childlike. He snatches a strong and team-leading 1.3 steals per game since the break. On offense, he is a little less willing to shoot than advertised, hitting only 0.5 3s a game (though on an impressive – and probably unsustainable – 42.9% from behind the arc). However, what he lacks in talent, he makes up for in effort. He is second on the team in loose balls recovered (1.0) and first in deflections (2.8). His offensive rebounding is second on the team to Valanciunas. Tucker is playing like Carroll with even more hustle (JYD 3.0?).
The point guard position is much weaker without Lowry, but his replacements have performed admirably. Joseph is back to his winning ways from last season. His offense is much stronger than it has ever been, as he is much more decisive, spends less time dribbling, and gets other players involved. He offers an incredible 4:1 assist-turnover ratio (that would be third in the league if it held up over the season, just behind Chris Paul). He assists on a team-leading 20.6% of his team’s shots when he’s in the game. That’s important for a team that lacks guys who make plays for teammates. He’s also hounding opponents on D, staying inside their jersey on most possessions. The team misses him when he sits, which is nice because it hasn’t been true all season.
Fortunately, the infinitely long-armed Delon Wright has been good, too, and the team’s defense has been even better with him on the floor. Wright is second on the team in blocks per game, at 0.8, which is insane for a point guard who only plays 15.6 minutes a game (it’s obviously inflated by his one four-block game). Wright’s offense is coming, and he has a tendency to pass up easy looks for himself in favour of more difficult ones for teammates (highlighted by a particularly egregious transgression in the second game against Washington).
Lay the ball up 🤦🏾♂️
— Dorell Wright 🏁 (@DWRIGHTWAY1) March 4, 2017
But his drives are unpredictable and effective. He drives the ball 5.0 times a game and finishes on the drive at an amazing rate of 55.6% (DeRozan is 57.1%, as a comparison). He scores 2.3 points in the paint a game, which compares well with the team’s forwards. Joseph and Wright even have an impressive 5.5 plus-minus when they play together. The Raps’ depth at the point guard position is a good problem to have when Lowry returns.
There are a few things worth noting in regards to Patrick Patterson and Carroll. Patterson has had a rough stretch on offense, shooting an anemic 28.0% from 3 and ghastly 31.4% from the floor. It’ll get better, as he’s a streaky player just going through a down streak. His defense is still there, and he leads the team with an unbelievable 99.2 defensive rating. But due to his vanishing offense, the plus-minus king has somehow been a net negative in the last six. He’ll get there. Carroll, on the other hand, has thrived. He hasn’t scored well, but he has been an important part of an absolutely dominant Raptors closing lineup with Ibaka, Tucker, DeRozan, and Joseph. This is the best-case scenario for the Raptors: Carroll embracing his role as a scrappy, versatile, defense-first wing who can switch coverages with Tucker, trust Ibaka behind him, and stifle opposing offenses. If he misses time with the ankle injury suffered against Milwaukee, that hurts Toronto a lot more than some fans think.
All of the change for the Raps has provided some insight into two Raptors mainstays: Jonas Valanciunas and DeMar DeRozan.
Valanciunas has had a rough stretch. The team has doubled down on a modern switchy defense, sliding forwards down positions to match up with bigger players. Having a guy like Ibaka allows the Raps to do that. Valanciunas has seemed out of place whenever he’s on the floor, except for a dominant showing against Milwaukee’s overmatched and underweight front line in the first quarter. Valanciunas does stuff that other players on the team just can’t do, but team efforts can feasibly conjure up the same positives that he offers the Raps. He eats glass better than Ibaka on both ends, but having guys like Tucker (offensive rebounding) and Joseph or DeRozan (defensive rebounding) crash the boards can help make up for Valanciunas’ rebounding when he sits. Valanciunas looks increasingly out of place whenever he’s on the court (which is increasingly less often), and the Raptors look much better without him. It’s too bad – he’s a great player that just doesn’t fit with what Toronto is trying to do right now. That may change in the playoffs, where he has been known to dominate guys who are lighter than him, like Hassan Whiteside. We’ll see, but don’t hold your breath.
DeRozan, though, is finally coming into his own. He has played consistently at an all-star level for the past few seasons, but this is something new. The man is on fire. He has always scored, but now DeRozan is adding so much more to winning. His defensive rebounding has made up for JV’s scarce playing time, as DeRozan is crashing the glass, upping his defensive rebound percentage from 14.2% on the season to 17.7% since the all-star break. He is passing well, trusting Ibaka as an outlet when he’s doubled on high hedges. He’s second on the team with 3.3 assists per game, but that number would be higher if Patterson and Carroll weren’t going through shooting slumps. DeRozan’s 3-point shooting has been electric, with him connecting on 41.7% of attempts (and hitting multiple Steph Curry-style deeeep threes in wins). His shooting in general has been hot fire, reflected by the man contributing a true shooting percentage of an insane 61 percent. That’s Lowry level. On the season, DeRozan has a more reasonable true shooting percentage of 55.3. Hopefully he can maintain his new heights of efficiency.
DeRozan’s defense has improved of late, too. Being surrounded by hustle and communication is infectious. Guys are taking the ball at DeRozan, attempting more shots while guarded by him than by any other Raptor. However, DeRozan is holding opponents to an inefficient 43.4% from the floor. He’s putting in effort: the all-star is first (!) on the team in loose balls recovered (1.2) and second on the team in miles run per game (2.35). He’s putting in work on both sides of the ball. As a result, DeRozan is finally favoured by the advanced statistics that have thus far reflected poorly on his career. He has a respectable plus-4.8 net rating, third on the team in this stretch. He’s stepping up and taking his game to superstardom, comparable to any player in the league.
So where does this leave the Raptors? They’re playingwell, and the games are fun again. Despite the new atmosphere surrounding the team, they’ve lost a few stinkers where the effort just hasn’t been there. This team has little margin for error, without enough offensive talent to survive off nights. The team needs more shooting, and thankfully Lowry is coming back evenetually. It’s going to be a wild ride down the stretch, and every win could be the difference between seeing the Celtics or the Cavaliers in the second round. It’s going to be tight, but the numbers have to favour the Raptors for continued success this season.
