James Johnson.
One of the most divisive characters in recent Toronto Raptors history, Johnson sputtered out in two different stints with the team under Dwane Casey. Why the organization liked him and gave him a second chance was always clear. Massive and skilled, Johnson can defend all across the floor when engaged, and his vision in transition or as a secondary playmaker are awesome. He’s perhaps even too creative and selfless, previously eschewing his strong finishing around the rim to zip passes around for lesser teammates. He was brought in to be the combo-forward stopper the Raptors needed for playoff success, and there was a sense he could find himself as a multi-faceted bench piece.
His first year returning was frustrating, as most metrics showed Johnson was valuable far beyond his role. He was being under-utilized, and when he was deployed sparingly in the playoffs, the exact time and matchup he was brought in to help with, the writing was maybe on the wall. His 2015-16 follow-up was difficult to digest. DeMarre Carroll was brought in essentially to usurp him, and when Carroll hit the shelf, Johnson lost his job filling in to Norman Powell. Battling plantar fasciitis, Johnson’s weight increased fairly significantly, and despite cries that he should be playing more, the data no longer really backed up those arguments. He fell to the end of the rotation, the blame shared across the team for failing to use Johnson effectively for so long and across Johnson for playing poorly for most of the season, even when given the chance.
The Miami Heat have done wonders for Johnson. He trimmed nearly 40 pounds, and he’s been freed to be himself, within reason. He’s responded by once again becoming a difference-maker on defense and leading the Heat as a bench piece, putting up career numbers across the board. At 30, Johnson is averaging 12.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.5 assists, nearly doubling his career averages. He ranks 15th among power forwards in Real Plus-Minus, he’s scoring efficiently thanks to an uptick in 3-point percentage and volume, and he owns the eighth- best assist rate among frontcourt players.
He’s been revitalized in South Beach, with a new body, a new approach, and a new freedom. If you don’t think he’ll be geeked up to show the Raptors what a fully utilized version of James Johnson looks like, well, you haven’t paid much attention to James Johnson the last few years. That the Heat can move into the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference with a win only stands to increase the likelihood of a strong Johnson effort.
The game tips off at 8 on Sportsnet One and Sportsnet 590. You can check out the full game preview here.
Raptors updates
With DeMarre Carroll making his return from a one-game absence on Friday, everything’s pretty straight-forward for the Raptors. Kyle Lowry is still on the shelf, and there remain question marks at the backup center position (the Raptors just declined to use one again against the Hawks), backup point guard (Delon Wright may be feeling Fred VanVleet’s breath on his neck), and with the closing lineup (Dwane Casey’s preferred fivesome didn’t get the job done Friday, though they are still much more good than bad and were hamstrung by Serge Ibaka questionably fouling out). These elements seem likely to be fluid for a while still, at least until Lowry returns and helps stabilize the rotation.
One thing the Raptors may have stumbled on despite a starting lineup that owns a -3.5 net rating in 104 minutes? The Ibaka-Jonas Valanciunas pairing is making strides. It always made sense that the duo could succeed on paper, and so we cautioned patience as they searched for chemistry. They’re still being outscored by 4.4 points per-100 possessions in 141 minutes together, but that mark has improved to a plus-7.2 in the last three games. Even better? It’s getting it done with defense, with a defensive rating of just 88.6. (The Raptors as a team have a tidy 102.2 defensive rating over their last three and 104 over their last eight, pushing them to 15th in the league on the season.)
LATE UPDATE: DeMarre Carroll is a late scratch, as the sprained left ankle he was dealing with is experiencing some soreness. Norman Powell starts in his place. This calls into question his appearance in Friday’s game, of course, and might explain some of his shaky performance in that one. He should sit until he’s right. This in-and-out stuff, man.
G: Cory Joseph, Delon Wright, Fred VanVleet
SG: DeMar DeRozan
SF: Norman Powell, P.J. Tucker
PF: Serge Ibaka, Patrick Patterson, Pascal Siakam
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Jakob Poeltl, Lucas Nogueira
TBD: None
ASSIGNED: Bruno Caboclo
OUT: Kyle Lowry, DeMarre Carroll
Heat updates
The Heat have dealt with so many injuries and so much roster flux this year that they have just a single lineup that’s played more than 100 minutes together (their starters, who have a -3.8 net rating). Naturally, it took them some time to find themselves and figure things out. They were 11-30 back on Jan. 13, and they’ve figured it out in a major way since, going 20-4. They’re a tough team to evaluate, then, because it’s really only been the second half of the season where they’ve been themselves (or themselves as they exist now). James Johnson is a sixth-man extraordinaire, Wayne Ellington is zipping around screens to shoot a ton of threes, the Goran Dragic-Hassan Whiteside pick-and-roll is as dangerous as Raptors fans will surely remember, and then there’s Dion Waiters, the human embodiment of #ShootYourShot2017.
The starters still struggle a bit, though, and the Raptors will need to come out of the gate strong. Lineups with Johnson at the four have been difficult, as his point-forward prowess really helps the offense hum around that main one-five action, or when Dragic sits. Their bench units have a ton of energy, and Erik Spoelstra, the likely frontrunner for Coach of the Year right now, has these guys playing smart, hard basketball, no matter how odd the lineups may look at first blush.
Okaro White is dealing with an ankle injury but is expected to be available, by the way.
PG: Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson
SG: Dion Waiters, Josh Richardson
SF: Rodney McGruder, Wayne Ellington
PF: Luke Babbitt, James Johnson, Okaro White
C: Hassan Whiteside, Willie Reed, Udonis Haslem
TBD: Okaro White
ASSIGNED: None
OUT: Justise Winslow, Josh McRoberts, Chris Bosh
Assorted
- Bruno Caboclo remains on assignment with Raptors 905, who closed out their own five-game trip on Friday night.
- The 905 return home Monday for a matinee at the Air Canada Centre, leg one of a Raptors 905-Raptors doubleheader.
- The NBA’s Last Two Minute Report for Friday’s game doesn’t exist, as the Raptors fell too far behind before the two-minute trigger. So that Ibaka-Millsap foul turned out to have an impact beyond just, you know, the game. Now we have no idea what they got wrong. Except we kinda do.
- From time-to-time here, I’ve linked to my work over at The Athletic. That work is usually behind a paywall. Starting today, Raptors Republic readers can get 20 percent off the subscription price by using this link. I know some people don’t like the idea of paying for content, but it’s (in my opinion) an important journalistic experiment, and you get not only my freelance work but the full-time work of Eric Koreen, James Mirtle, John Lott, and many more awesome writers. Using that link also helps support me, personally, which in turn helps the sustainability of Raptors Republic.
The line
With the Raptors on the second night of a travel back-to-back and the Heat fresh, Toronto finds itself as a 5.5-point underdog, up from an opening line of Heat -4. The over-under is at 202, owing in part to the slow pace these two teams play with. At the end of a five-game road trip, even with a break in the middle of it, and with their third game in four nights, taking the Raptors will take some stomach. Getting those points helps. If you’re optimistic, that is.
