This past Friday morning, as I stared at the upcoming NBA schedule and what it meant for the Toronto Raptors, something was quite clear to me. With just over 80% of the regular season slated to be over once the weekend was finished, two games on tap, and both Washington and Boston in action with crucial games, this weekend was going to be truly indicative of where the Raptors may end up in the standings. Yesterday was selection Sunday for March Madness set to tip off on Thursday; and for the Raptors, the answer to the seeding question that has bewildered the fan-base over the past month or so, has also started to become clear. And let’s be honest, it’s not ideal.
With back-to-back losses – a disappointing one in Atlanta, and a schedule loss against a rested and rolling Miami Heat squad – the Raptors were counting on the Celtics and Wizards having losing weekends themselves, in order to hold on to their hopes of snagging a second or third seed. And, well…that didn’t materialize. The Celtics did the Raptors a favour by losing on Friday to the Nuggets, but a strong win against the ever-Raptor-killing Chicago Bulls on Sunday effectively neutralized that loss.
Meanwhile, the Wizards continued their streak as one of the NBA’s hottest teams since January 1st, claiming a ridiculous comeback victory against the Kings in overtime on Friday night, and following that up on a back-to-back against the Blazers on Saturday (a team fighting for that eighth seed out west) with ANOTHER furious comeback win in Portland in overtime. To put the Wizards’ weekend in perspective, just get this. They played a western conference back-to-back (something that is never easy for any NBA team at any point in the season) and outscored both of their opponents by a combined 150 – 108 in the second half and overtime in both of those games. And in both of the contests, the Wizards’ backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal combined for an average of 64 points. Contrast all of that to the Raptors’ weekend…and well…that pretty much sums up the way the past 2 and a half months have gone.
So what does all of this mean? The standings today show the Raptors 6 games back of a first seed, and 3.5 games back of both Washington and Boston, who hold the second and third seeds respectively. Despite holding tie-breaks against both teams (go figure), the relative ease of the Celtics’ remaining schedule, and given the way the Wizards refuse to lose to anyone, the second or third seed finally seems like it may be out of reach for the Raptors at this stage.
Obviously, a lot of this disappointment is due to the Raptors missing their three-time all-star, best player, and the most important cog to their offensive machine. But as fans, perhaps it’s time to swallow that pill that has tasted so bad over the past few weeks, and re-calibrate our expectations. Sure, this is certainly not how we viewed this team 4 months ago…heck, I even wrote a piece back in mid-December on how winning 60 games was an actual possibility! So don’t consider me a pessimist, just somebody who’d rather see something coming, instead of being disappointed come April and May.
What a way to start the week, huh? Okay, so instead of saying the sky is falling and the season is over already, let’s start by setting a few more realistic expectations and what could come of them.
The more realistic expectations
- Securing home court advantage: With a loss to the Hawks on Friday, and a loss on Saturday (combined with an Atlanta win in Memphis), the Raptors now find themselves just a game ahead of Atlanta for fourth in the Eastern Conference. The Friday loss also means the Raptors lost the season series with the Hawks, meaning they would need to finish at least a game ahead of Atlanta to secure home court in the first round. Not saying home court has meant a ton to this team over the past few years, but I’d probably be speaking for most fans when I say that I don’t feel any better about starting a series on the road. It could be tough to keep the fourth seed, but this is a realistic expectation for the Lowry-less Raptors. Atlanta has a much tougher schedule down the stretch, with upcoming matchups against the Spurs, Grizzlies, Celtics, and two matchups against the Cavaliers. It’s reasonable to expect that the Raptors will fair better coming down the stretch, as their only real tough matchups are against the Heat in late March and early April (Miami’s likely to be fighting for playoff seeding against Milwaukee), the Bulls (for obvious reasons), and potentially Cleveland (though that’s the last game of the season, so it’d be hard to imagine a full-fledged effort from them). All remaining contests, at least on paper, seem winnable.
- Winning at least a playoff round: Not really much to say here. If the Raptors secure a fourth seed, that would mean 4 home games, and 3 on the road against the Hawks to win a playoff series. For so many reasons that I don’t totally want to get into, it would be reasonable to expect the Raptors (presumably with a healthy Lowry) to win that first round matchup.
- Putting up a fight in the second round, no matter who we face: While the Eastern Conference finals may be a goal for the Raptors, for the reasons mentioned throughout this piece, it’s just not something that I’m flat out expecting from this team. With a pre-trade deadline slump under their belt, a resurgent Eastern Conference breathing fire down their neck, and the devastating loss of their floor general, it’s time we put that expectation to rest for now. But with hopefully a first round victory, and Lowry in full stride by then, one thing I do expect is for the Raptors to win at least a game, maybe two, in their second round matchup against what we can only imagine will be Cleveland. And after last year, who really knows what to expect if and when we get there.
While our expectations need to be tempered, there’s no reason not to be hopeful. It’s entirely possible that the Raptors go on a tear to close the season after finding an offensive rhythm, the Celtics collapse, or the Wizards slide as a result of their tough closing regular season schedule. Heck, maybe one of the Celtics or Wizards catch the first place Cavs who appear suddenly beatable these days, and being the fourth seed becomes a blessing. At this point, I’d still say all of those are long-shots. But in the wonderful world of sports, as a fan, that’s why it’s important to know what to expect, despite always remaining hopeful.
