Talk about desperate opponents. For the seventh time in eight games, the Toronto Raptors will square off with a team fighting for its playoff life. Perhaps none of those teams have been reeling quite like the Indiana Pacers are reeling. When the two sides last squared off less than two weeks ago, there was discussion that the matchup could be a playoff preview in a 4-5 or 3-6 scenario. Fast-forward to today and the Pacers are in a tie for seventh in the Eastern Conference, without the tiebreaker, and with the Chicago Bulls just a game behind them.
That creates a fun opportunity for the Raptors to play spoiler here and next week in Indiana (though Raptors fans would probably prefer Indiana make the playoffs over Chicago), and if nothing else, it should mean a hungry opponent. That has at times recently lifted the play of the Raptors, who matched that desperation. On Wednesday, though, the Raptors wilted a bit late as the Charlotte Hornets heated up, resulting in the loss of their six-game winning streak and a very angry P.J. Tucker.
“I can’t see how we lost this game,” he said. “Especially when you consider the last few games, how the season is coming to an end, how close the race is. We can’t come out like that. There’s no excuse for us coming out and playing like that. We got to be better.”
I’d expect Dwane Casey, Tucker, and the entire locker room to set the tone that another effort they deem iffy won’t be tolerated. The outcomes of the games aren’t all that important to Toronto right now, given the uncertainty as to whether the third or fourth seed is preferable, but they still want to enter the postseason playing well and without any bad habits. A Pacers team clinging to life should provide a good litmus.
The game tips off at 7 on Sportsnet One and TSN 1050.
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To help set the stage, I reached out to Ian Levy of Fansided/The Step Back, who was kind enough to help us out.
Blake Murphy: When the Raptors and Pacers met on March 19, it looked like a different Paul George. The DeMar DeRozan stopper from a year ago only seemed partially engaged on the defensive end, his offense was fine, and George, once considered a top-10 player in the NBA or something near it, was just sort of a guy. This has been the case a handful of times when I’ve tuned in this year, but there are still other nights when George looks like the Raptors nightmare from last April. What gives? Am I just seeing things?
Ian Levy: You’re definitely not seeing things. My perception is that the general uneveness of the team this season has really impacted him mentally — their slow start, their inconsistency, and then of course all the trade talk around the deadline. His job is harder this year than it’s been in the past. The team is worse defensively and, as good as Myles Turner has been, not having Hibbert and Mahinmi protecting the rim puts pressure on George to take more defensive responsibility. That is, he can’t just concentrate on his individual matchup in the same way he could in the past.
On offense, the spacing has been bad because the roster doesn’t have as much shooting and it’s made it harder for him to get all the way to the rim. I wrote about this a few weeks ago but, at that point, he was leading the league in free throw percentage and yet taking far fewer free throws than he had in the past. I think his role and responsibilities are harder this year, he’s feeling less successful, and the trade talk is making him feel less valued. The end result is an extremely talented player who is sometimes disengaged on defense or willing to settle for low-energy, low-efficiency shots on offense.
Blake Murphy: That uneven play hasn’t quite sunk the Pacers. Maybe expectations were higher, but they’re in good shape to hang on to a playoff position, sitting in _ with a _-game cushion on ninth with _ games to go. How confident are you in Indiana locking up one of these final playoff spots?
Ian Levy: I would be shocked if they slipped out. It wouldn’t surprise me if Miami passed them but I think they’re still better than Detroit or Chicago and have a reasonable cushion on both of those teams. There’s just not enough time left for a complete meltdown.
Blake Murphy: With five-through-eight and one-through-four so tight in the East, it’s hard to figure how first-round matchups may shake out. Assuming you could pick, though, which of the top teams in the East would the Pacers most and least want to draw?
Ian Levy: I think they would prefer Washington. That matchup seems like the most even in terms of talent and also the most simplistic since the Wizards don’t have a ton of depth. There aren’t a lot of funky cross-matchups or rotational things that could send the series sideaways. Against Washington they wouldn’t have to try to outdo them creatively, just play at their best and hope that Washington couldn’t. In terms of who they’d like to avoid, probably Cleveland. As much as they’ve slid lately they still have the most talent of anyone in the Conference and there’s no answer for LeBron.
Blake Murphy: Let’s say we get a Raptors-Pacers round-one rematch once again. From this side, it looks like the Raptors are better suited to take care of that series in shorter order (the absence of George Hill looms large, even if Kyle Lowry isn’t back to 100 percent by then). Are you in agreement? What would your (very early) call be on the series?
Ian Levy: Yeah, I would think Toronto would be strong favorites. As long as Lowry is playing and somewhat effective, best case (realistic) scenario for Indiana would be something like winning two games. Toronto has more defenders to throw at George this year. The offense has more weapons. And, frankly, I don’t think this Indiana team is as good as last year’s.
Blake Murphy: Indiana is among the league’s worst rebounding teams, ranking in the bottom five on both ends of the floor. Part of this probably just flows from playing small often, starting a pair of combo-forwards with Myles Turner. But it’s a pretty big deal, still. Does Nate McMillan have any options at his behest to paper over that weakness in the postseason?
Ian Levy: Nope. That’s the issue with this Pacers’ roster. There are enough holes that plugging any single hole springs a leak somewhere else. Go small and they get killed on the glass (and don’t really space the floor that well to compensate). Go big with Seraphin or Allen and try to cover up on the glass, the spacing gets even worse and the offense gets even worse.
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Raptors updates
We did about all the rotation talk I can handle in the mailbag this week. DeMarre Carroll-P.J. Tucker, Cory Joseph-Delon Wright, tightening the rotation for the playoffs, it’s all in there. There shouldn’t be much new on that front, either. All three 905ers have been recalled after a nice showing on Thursday, so if things get out of hand, they’re around.
As for injured All-Star Kyle Lowry, he’s progressed to shooting with his right hand, which is huge. Over at The Athletic, I looked at some historical precedent to try to figure out if we should expect Lowry to slump once he’s back.
PG: Cory Joseph, Delon Wright, Fred VanVleet
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell
SF: DeMarre Carroll, P.J. Tucker, Bruno Caboclo
PF: Serge Ibaka, Patrick Patterson, Pascal Siakam
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Jakob Poeltl, Lucas Nogueira
TBD: None
ASSIGNED: None
OUT: Kyle Lowry
Pacers updates
The Pacers signed Lance Stephenson to a multi-year deal, a good reminder not to date your exes. Paul George seems happy, at least. Stephenson won’t suit up until Sunday, though, so the Raptors don’t have to worry about him Friday. The injured Rodney Stuckey was waived to make room for him. Glenn Robinson III (calf) and Al Jefferson (ankle) are also on the shelf, so the Pacers come in a little banged up here.
Since Toronto last saw Indiana, they’ve looked for a spark by moving Monta Ellis into the starting lineup over C.J. Miles, a move that probably won’t work out and will be especially challenging against the Raptors, where Miles is used as an extra option on DeRozan. The lack of true wings on the roster may be forcing their hand a bit there, though, as Naate McMillan would essentially only have very big or very small lineups with George down otherwise. The new starters have been outscored by 4.2 points per-100 possessions in 473 minutes on the year, while that same group with Miles has a plus-8.1 net rating in 435 minutes.
PG: Jeff Teague, Aaron Brooks, Joseph Young
SG: Monta Ellis, C.J. Miles
SF: Paul George, Georges Niang
PF: Thad Young, Lavoy Allen
C: Myles Turner, Rakeem Christmas, Kevin Seraphin
TBD: None
ASSIGNED: None
OUT: Al Jefferson, Glenn Robinson III, Lance Stephenson
The line
The Raptors are 6-point favorites with an over-under of 205.
