It’s that time of the year – in less than a week, the Toronto Raptors will tip off their fourth consecutive playoff campaign. Everywhere stomachs are knotting, butterflies fluttering out of their cocoons, filling northern basketball fans with excitement. Or is it just me? Last year’s playoffs brought many firsts for Toronto – a first ever 7-game series win, two game 7 victories, and a first time conference finals appearance. And the best piece of news yet – that may have just been a warning shot ahead of an even more impressive feat this season.
There are a host of factors giving cause for unbridled optimism, though I’m well aware my fandom makes me biased. Still, I’ll present the case for why this is the year the Toronto Raptors make the NBA finals.
First and foremost, the franchise reached 50 wins for a second straight season and a top 10 ranking in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These milestones are generally considered the hallmark of a true contender. More impressively than that, they have gotten to 50 with their engine, general and catalyst Kyle Lowry missing 22 games (27% of the season). Though laboring offensively for much of that period, the team learned to win with defense, giving in to the vocal leadership of madman P.J. Tucker.
One only has to take a look at a team similar in stature to Toronto out West, the Clippers, who have been elite with Chris Paul in the lineup this season (33-16), but barely above .500 without him (16-15). In a nutshell, this was the expectation for Toronto while Lowry recovered from a wrist surgery, and so they went 6-5 without him in the first while. But then the team meeting happened, and the club’s identity changed. They turned it around, rattling off 8 wins in their next 9 games, to make it a 14-7 record following Kyle’s injury. That’s a testament to how deep and well-rounded the Raptors have become in the wake of Ujiri’s moves (drafting, use of the D-League team, trade deadline acquisitions), a formidable squad even without their leader.
Stars are the most vital cogs for a winning franchise in the NBA, and Toronto has two of them in their prime. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have given the Raptors the edge in tightly contested games time and again this year. From Lowry’s dagger against the Pelicans, to DeRozan’s game winner against the Knicks, the Raptors have legitimate stars ready and willing to take responsibility with the game on the line. Beyond that, these two franchise players can make plays for their teammates upon attracting the double team. But it wasn’t always so.
Not that long ago, a portion of Raptor fans scolded DeRozan for his shot selection and decision making on a regular basis. While there was merit to the claims, it was a simple result of the hierarchy in Toronto’s offense – Lowry acting the role of playmaker (with the occasional scoring bursts), leaving DeRozan as the go-to scorer. This is where Kyle’s stint on the sidelines became the greatest blessing Toronto could have asked for – his absence sowed the seeds for DeMar’s latest evolutionary step.
With the ball in his hands more than ever and deferral to Lowry no longer an option, DeRozan became everything for Toronto. He recorded 9 games of 5 or more assists in the 21-game stretch without his fellow All-Star, and cemented a top 4 finish and home court advantage for his club in the first round. Despite a poor shooting night, that 10-assist performance against Detroit in Lowry’s return raised my appreciation for the Compton product tenfold. Not only that, he answered Tucker’s challenge, picking up his effort level on the defensive side of the ball, something that has been held against him for much of his tenure in the North. It is that growth, that evolution, that added maturity, combined with the learned knowledge of what it takes to win in the postseason, that has set the Raptors up for their own jump to the next level.
Apart from the expected 8-man rotation that will eat the bulk of playing time, Toronto has an abundance of motivated and very different young players, each of them capable of making an impact. From Powell and Wright, to Poeltl and Nogueira, and even Fred VanVleet, all have gotten some burn throughout the 16/17 campaign, and have proven they can hold the fort for short stretches as required. Casey has experimented with small lineups, big lineups, and even three point-guard lineups with differing rates of success. That tinkering and confidence given to the youngest pieces on the team could pay dividends in the coming weeks. Even if just a single momentum change in the midst of a poor second quarter in a road game is achieved by the insertion of Wright’s disruptive defense, all those rookie mistakes he made throughout the season would have been worth it.
Psychologically, the 2016 playoffs were difficult waters to navigate. Somehow, someway, with grit and the aid of Frank Vogel’s game 5 rotation choices, the Raptors managed to get the pesky monkey off their back, winning their first 7-game series against the Pacers. Things should go a bit more smoothly this season with that mental barrier removed. Of course, winning the first round is not a given, and Toronto will need to earn it. Still, besides the talent disparity, a major reason the Cavaliers were able to dismantle the Raptors so easily in their wins was the fact that from April 29 to May 27, Toronto did not have more than a single day off between any of their games. With increased talent level from top to bottom, added toughness, and growing wealth of playoff experience, they have a better chance of closing out their first round opponents without resorting to 7 games, earning valuable rest in the process.
In the rarest of gestures, I would like to extend my thanks to the schedule makers. With how tight the Eastern playoff race worked out this season, Toronto faced one team fighting for their lives after another to close out the 82 games (the Knicks and Cavaliers games aside). In a difficult three game stretch, the Raptors faced the Pacers, Pistons and Heat, each game a must-win for the opposing squads. It is often said that the fourth win is the most difficult to get in a series, and in my view, each of those games represented something akin to an elimination game. After a collapse and loss to the Pacers, the Raptors managed to come from behind to all but erase Detroit’s playoff hopes, and deal a crippling blow to Miami’s, forcing the latter to win out the rest of the way or go home. These battles came at a perfect time to prepare them mentally and physically for the weeks to come, helping the Raptors remember what it takes to win these dogfights. And they proved they’re ready.
Finally, we come to the elephant in the room – LeBron James. The 4-time league MVP, 3-time NBA champion and one of the greatest players of all time is still the one to beat in the East. Having made the NBA finals 6 straight times, it doesn’t appear to be a smart move to bet against the King. He and his team have shown they can flip the proverbial switch with alarming alacrity. And yet, Goliath will always look invincible until the stone crashes against his skull.
Cleveland ranks outside the top 20 in defensive rating (22nd), and no team has ever made the NBA finals with that poor a mark in the category since the league began counting turnovers. As long as the Raptors manage to put together a couple 5-minute defensive lockdown stretches in each game (it’s time for LeBron to meet P.J.) while remaining disciplined offensively (growth of DeRozan and addition of Ibaka), Toronto will give themselves a genuine opportunity to beat the Cavaliers. Whether it be in the second or third round, Cleveland can be beaten, and the Raptors have the tools to do it.
Regardless of what happens, the upcoming playoffs see the best roster ever assembled north of the border take to the hardwood in an attempt to make history. With expiring contracts and the cap crunch looming just over the horizon, this may be the last time we witness the merry band as currently constructed. Ujiri may yet improve the team further, but the possibility remains that this spring will be as good as it gets for a while, and I hope we can all appreciate the golden age that we’ve witnessed these last few years, leaving a wide chasm between this period and the dark years that came before it.
Whether things only get better from here or the team takes a small step back, Ujiri and Casey’s legacy appears to have been cemented – they developed a new culture in Toronto, step by step, to the point that winning became the norm, the expectation. And now, this latest challenge awaits, the pinnacle it has all been building up to. The Raptors have the potential to go a step further than they did last postseason, and this collection of hard-nosed winners knows it. They’ll do it for themselves, for their fans, and for the general manager and coaching staff that believed in them, nurtured them and gave them the chance to become great. They will do it. Feeling those butterflies yet?
