Fan Duel Toronto Raptors

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Game 3 Mailbag: Starting lineup changes, Stackhouse, Archie is bad, and more

Why did I do this?

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I had said I was only going to fire up the #RRMailbag when there were two days between games. I couldn’t help it here – I’m risking my own sanity and mentions because it really, really felt after Game 3 like we could use some group therapy.. We’ll try to do more mini-mailbags when time allows during the postseason, but I’m skeptical there will be time/room for one of the 7,000-word mammoths given that, you know, the series might be over Monday (I joke, kind of). You can find all of the previous editions of the mailbag here, if, for whatever reason, you wanted to read old mailbags.

Before we go ahead: A reminder that we have a Patreon page at patreon.com/RaptorsRepublic. If you appreciate the content we produce, want to support RR, and have the means to do so, any contribution is greatly appreciated and will help us continue to do what we do (and try to do even more). You can also follow me on Twitter for, uhh, tweets, and on Facebook for all of my writing/podcasting/radio stuff. Validate me. You can also ask me questions at any time using #RRMailbag, and I’ll be sure to include them in the next mailbag, no matter how long between.

Alright, let’s get this money.

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https://twitter.com/Kiaan_S/status/855257377720946690

I can! Although because of time constraints I’m opting for a shorter mailbag (I posted a call for questions and then quickly deleted it). I would have loved to just leave it open all day and see how many (and how extreme) come in, but doing so would have meant not posting this until Saturday morning ahead of a 3 p.m. tip-off. So here’s a somewhat abbreviated mailbag, at least by my standards.

Because people feel the need to vent (my mentions were a mess last night), because people seem to enjoy the mailbags, and because even though these take forever to put together, it’s easier in terms of energy investment than writing 1,200 words on Game 3 that nobody will read and just skip to the comments on or doing a video breakdown on the eight or so minutes of game that actually mattered. Also, I love you all.

You don’t lose by 27 points in a pivotal playoff game without plenty of blame to go around. It’s on Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan for doing a worse job against a very similar Milwaukee defensive approach and lacking defensive energy. It’s on DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas for continuing to contribute to the slow starts by kind of just being there. It’s on the bench for bringing no spark whatsoever outside of Delon Wright and, later, Norman Powell for a bit. It’s a telling sign when even P.J. Tucker is complicit. And, of course, the slow starts have to eventually fall on not just the players for playing poorly, but on the coaching staff. There are just so many fingers to point here. Most seem to be zeroed in on Dwane Casey (we’ll get to some of that with later questions), which is fine, but you really can’t hang a performance that embarrassing on any one pillar of the failure.

When a sophomore with 50 games of NBA experience and 50 minutes of playoff experience is your best player in a crucial playoff game, everyone is wearing this.

Come on, you didn’t think we’d get through a mailbag without the captain of the mailbag team, Why Is DeMarre Carroll Still Starting, did you?

Casey made it sound after Game 3 like changes to the starting lineup were coming. He made it sound like the starters would have a short leash after Game 1, and they responded with a plus-5 in Game 2, but were a disaster again on Thursday. Through three playoff games, they have a -20.6 net rating in 31 minutes. In three regular season games together, that mark was -25.2 in 40 minutes. We’re still talking about incredibly small samples, but the Raptors don’t have the benefit of waiting for the sample to expand. They can’t trot out a five-some that’s been run off the floor in five of their six appearances together.

On Thursday, that meant starting Cory Joseph in place of Jonas Valanciunas in the second half, which was confusing. I get why they did it – more ball-handling and shooting – but over real minutes, that group is much too small for Milwaukee’s starters, and it means a point guard on Khris Middleton. (Side note: Why the Raptors have been hesitant to put Carroll on Middleton and Serge Ibaka on Giannis Antetokounmpo so that DeRozan can hide out a bit on Tony Snell, I’m unsure. I know some commenters disagreed when I suggested that alignment in a pre-series mailbag [I didn’t communicate the cross-matches very well, mind you], but it’s clear at this point that neither Joseph nor DeRozan can check Middleton. Anyway.) So they’re going to try something, though I don’t think Joseph is the answer (more on that in the questions to follow.)

As for Carroll, he was kinda far down the list of things that went wrong in Game 3, but he hasn’t been able to hang with Antetokounmpo (shocking), and if he’s not switching on to Middleton, what are we really doing here? He spaces the floor a bit better than P.J. Tucker, is a slightly better playmaker, and starting him keeps Tucker as the defensive quarterback on the second unit, but he has the worst net rating of any Raptor in the series and is the most obvious one-for-one switch. I was willing to have some patience with this decision since the starters fit together OK on paper and because I thought the Raptors might change the individual matchups. It’s now running thin. Carroll probably shouldn’t start Game 4 if Valanciunas is also starting – one of those spots has to change, at least.

It is concerning, perhaps, for the Tucker-over-Carroll crowd that Tucker drew a DNP in the second half despite no indication of injury.

https://twitter.com/SaintPatrickJR/status/855388215993171968

Jakob Poeltl has had a nice series and offers some length and range, but I think if you pull Valanciunas from the starting lineup, the idea is to get more versatile and switchy. Poeltl is a nice defender and he’s going to be a good piece, but the benefit of Ibaka at the five is that you can switch a lot of action on and off the ball and throw multiple guys at Antetokounmpo and Middleton. Poeltl is kind of just a half-measure as a change defensively, and he’d present a downgrade on offense (he’s a savvy offensive rebounder and a better passer than Valanciunas in those 4-on-3 situations, but he’s not quite the screener Valanciunas is, and the Bucks would respect the threat of his rolls even less). I think the move is downsizing to add that element of versatility on defense, and to goose the spacing a bit.

https://twitter.com/alexwdernst/status/855389395595210753

It might seem weird to cape for Lucas Nogueira in a question right after conceding that Poeltl has been good, but I’m still a little surprised Poeltl was the backup center in this series instead of Nogueira. Okay, I’m not surprised. Nogueira was playing great and then hit a cold spell at the worst possible time, as Ibaka came in to eat backup center minutes. In the time since, Poeltl has played steady enough to give Casey little reason to change course. He’s also a fairly inconsistent player who Casey probably doesn’t know what he’s going to get from night to night.

But Nogueira’s the Raptors’ longest defender and best rim protector, and he would have a defensive use against any non-Greg Monroe center the Bucks threw out there. More than anything, though, it’s Nogueira’s ability to take advantage of Milwaukee’s traps that could be huge. Not only was the Brazilian fourth in screen assists per-minute this season, he’s also the team’s best passing big in those 4-on-3 scenarios that develop underneath the trap, as well as their best lob threat on the dive. There’s a reason basically every advanced metric (or even not-so-advanced) thought highly of Nogueira’s play this year, and even when you qualify for the caveats of playing opposing bench units or mostly with Lowry or whatever, the Raptors were pretty good with him on the floor.

I don’t think they’ll start him. It’s just too drastic a change, and the best move still appears to be Ibaka at center. But Nogueira should get a look if things go awry again. I don’t mean that as any disrespect to Poeltl, either – it’s a floor versus ceiling debate, and if Toronto stumbles out of the gates again, Nogueira might be able to provide a spark. (If he doesn’t, well, you change course quickly.)

I kind of beat around making an actual answer on a starting lineup in the earlier questions because I knew this one was coming. That’s the starting lineup I’d roll with. It’s the one they closed Game 2 out with (a plus-2 in the toughest minutes of the series), and one that’s made plenty of sense as a closing group since Tucker and Ibaka were acquired at the deadline. I know the starting lineup is perhaps overstated and you have to manage minutes and rotations over 48 minutes, but at this point, you really can’t afford another bad start, and this is their best five in this series. Moving Ibaka to the five allows you to switch across three, even four positions, let’s you put DeRozan on Snell instead of Middleton, gives you multiple Antetokounmpo options at once, all while really spacing the floor out on offense to help punish Milwaukee’s traps.

(The Tucker-Patterson-Ibaka trio got rolled as part of a DeRozan-and-bench lineup Thursday, but they had a +7.5 net rating in 72 regular season minutes, and they’re one of only three Raptors trios with a positive net rating in 24 minutes or more so far in this series. They make a ton of sense together on paper.)

The bench gets a little thin like that, but the team could then match Valanciunas’ minutes to Monroe’s, Carroll gives the second unit a bit more spacing than they’d have otherwise, and Joseph isn’t overextended starting and having to guard much bigger wings. This setup probably means no Poeltl/Nogueira and you maybe have to choose just one of Wright/Powell (likely Wright given how the series has gone, but you can make a case for Powell in four-around-one bench units, or if you’re of the belief Carroll should lose his rotation space entirely), but that’s fine if you’re getting out to better starts. I know a starting lineup change carries a bunch of trickle-down with it, some psychological/ego management elements, and throws everybody, including the coaching staff, out of sorts. You just have to put your best foot forward in a Game 4 the team is already calling a must-win

https://twitter.com/Elyas_2017/status/855391154149478400

There are a handful of reasons, namely that the NBA has made it more difficult for defenses to defend like that over the years. You can’t hand-check like in the Michael Jordan years, and the Knicks had a lot of players known for that kind of defense and style (it was a Jeff Van Gundy special, and those Knicks were some of the best defenses of all time when adjusting for era. And, it’s important to note, Carter still averaged 22.8-7.2-3.4-1.4-1.2 with 7.2 FTA in that series (despite the loss, Jordan averaged 27.4-8.8-4.6-2.0-0.6 and 7.6 FTA and shot nearly 50 percent in the Jordan Rules series). You just can’t beat up on players as much now, and our memories tend to exaggerate just how effective those strategies were. Plus, it’s not like mauling him would help at all in transition – he covers the whole court in four strides, and you’re going to rack up fouls.

Side-note: Timeless Vince Carter is my favorite thing. He would have been the best player on the Raptors last night.

In terms of Antetokounmpo coverage, a lot of their issues have come from attention issues – Valanciunas being flat-footed in semi-transition, Carroll dying on a screen, even Tucker helping in the wrong direction with his back to his shooter. His impact has been way more pronounced than even his box score line would suggest, because everything Milwaukee gets flows from the attention he’s drawing. The answer is mostly “execute better” and “stop losing focus,” which is extremely frustrating since there aren’t as many tactical changes to point to. (As I wrote about last night a bit, this is one of the most frustrating things about a blowout – you lose a lot of the learning value from a game, because you get like 12 minutes of being sonned, and then it’s all garbage time.) Anyway, I thought in Game 2 they did an OK job getting under Antetokounmpo’s legs and bodying him up a little better, but that was for, like, a half. It’s part of the reason I want the starting lineup change.

Antetokounmpo is awesome. Truly one of the 10, maybe even five, best players in the NBA right now, at 22. It’s remarkable to see him embrace the moment like this and make the Raptors look like the less experienced team. Sucks from a Raptors perspective, sure, but there’s a strong chance the NBA is watching Antetokounmpo take the leap this year.

https://twitter.com/EthanL55/status/855389171367776256

Look man, Bruno Caboclo’s season is about two things: Winning a D-League Championship and being deployed as a Kevin Durant stopped in the NBA Finals. He’s doing his part for the former and the 905 are just two wins away. It’s on the Raptors to put him in a position for the latter, otherwise they don’t deserve him, anyway, and it’s time to blow it up and build around Caboclo.

If they do it, it would be because they’re evaluating the space the team exists in as a whole, not just looking at his playoff performance in the games that stand out (and remember, he shot poorly in the first two rounds last year but was still very good in every other area). I’m not saying re-signing him will be the right call necessarily, but the team’s not just going to look at playoff FG% and make their call from that. They’re going to measure what the team would look like without him, what the point guard succession plan would look like, what the team’s floor and ceiling is without him, how else they could use that money and roster spot, what the lay of the East looks like, and whether being just good for a few more years is worth it in terms of stabilizing the Raptors as a long-term non-joke versus risking backsliding out of the playoffs. You also have to consider what Lowry walking does for your chances of keeping the other free agents. There’s just a ton that will go into their decision, whatever it ultimately is, than “CHOKER!”

If you let Lowry walk, though, you’re saying that this core can’t win together. They’re not better without him than with him, not without the requisite offseason flexibility to add a comparably good player. That means you’re not pushing forward with this same group less Lowry and expecting the same results. Joseph is among the best backups in the NBA and Wright and VanVleet are both quality pieces, but Lowry’s been a top-15 player in the league over the last three years.You’re taking a step back if Lowry walks. The fans that are packing his bags for him need to accept the reality of what deciding to let Lowry go says about this core and how the Raptors are best off moving forward.

(All of this, of course, depends on Lowry even wanting to stay, which I’m skeptical about if they lose in the first round.)

https://twitter.com/causticbee/status/855407288730869760

This requires it’s own full column, but if they lose as a higher seed in the first round for the third time in four years, and their only success in that span included two incredibly narrow seven-game victories in a weak year, you probably need to take a long, realistic look at whether this core is worth going deep into the luxury tax for. I don’t really feel like writing the eulogy column in the middle of the series, but I can’t see the logic in re-upping this same group if they’re out in the first round again.

https://twitter.com/jshchn/status/855312328534892544

Joshua, this next paragraph is not about you and your reasonable question: I am shocked at the number of people on Twitter, in my DMs, in my emails, etc of late who know Jerry Stackhouse’s coaching style and effectiveness so intimately. Considering the 905 are averaging about 3,000 in attendance, their Facebook Live feeds don’t even average 1,000 most games, and our traffic suggests not a lot of people care all that much, it’s wild that so many have gotten to know Stackhouse so well through the standings page. (I’m being an asshole here, but people constantly turning any 905/Stackhouse positive into a Raptors/Casey negative is exhausting. I’m not here to tell you how to be a fan, but at least ask like Joshua if you haven’t actually been watching games or reading about the team.)

Here’s the deal with Stackhouse: He’s done a fantastic job with the 905 this year. Every player on that team raves about playing for him, how much they’ve learned, how much they’ve bought in to the all-for-one concept even if it means fewer minutes and less touches. He works them to the bone, but they’re an exceptionally well-prepared group mentally, and almost to a man, guys have taken big strides, particularly as defenders. Not only that, but the 905 accomplished a bunch of goals beyond just being good this year – Caboclo has improved a great deal, two players earned NBA call ups, and those who don’t stick around the NBA or D-League are going to be in good positions to cash in overseas this summer. And through the call-ups and injuries, the 905 have just kept rolling. They lost their two best players and another key rotation piece and are undefeated in the playoffs. Stackhouse and his staff deserve a great deal of credit for this year.

At the same time – and this isn’t meant to be negative, it’s just realism – it’s difficult to project from here. The 905, prior to the call-ups and even now, were one of the most talented teams in the league, blessed with incredible depth to the point that they found Jarrod Uthoff a new home just to do right by him mid-season (he’s now a Dallas Maverick). The 905 also use a fair bit of what the Raptors use, and though they’ll call some things differently and tweak elements based on personnel – Stackhouse has put more of an individual stamp on the system than Jesse Mermuys before him – it’s tough to know exactly how much credit should fall at the feet of Stackhouse from a tactical perspective. It certainly can’t be called a weakness, to be clear, but extrapolating from a really good D-League season to the NBA is pretty noisy.

No D-League head coach has ever gone directly from a D-League bench to an NBA head coaching job without a stop as a top NBA assistant, and Stackhouse doesn’t have a great deal of experience yet. Some teams would probably want him to do a year as a No. 1 or No. 2 assistant before giving him the nod. There are exceptions, of course, like Jason Kidd going player-to-coach, and Stackhouse is definitely the kind of name and personality who could blaze a new path. I really don’t have much doubt that Stackhouse will be a good NBA coach at some point, and I think he could probably step in for a young, developing team now and make a difference.

Asking him to take over Casey’s job on a playoff team, without a stop between, is a much bigger leap, and it would probably cost you Rex Kalamian and Nick Nurse in the process. If the team loses in the first round and decides to take a step back in the short-term? I think it becomes a conversation. But please, I can’t stress this enough: This is not me saying Stackhouse couldn’t or won’t be a good coach on a quality team right away, it’s just too big an extrapolation from one D-League year to know with any certainty.

I guess I could see why it would rub the Orlando Magic or Milwaukee Bucks wrong, but come on, Bismack Biyombo is Lucas Nogueira’s father. The NBA has to be loose with players rooting on their own families. (I don’t think it’s an issue – he’s close with the guys still, the Magic aren’t in the playoffs, and he’s not a free agent for it to look like tampering. Plus, Dad.)

https://twitter.com/willrobbry/status/855388540242362368

Absolutely he is. Major character, anyway. Let’s run it down: Archie slept with his teacher, bounced between multiple girlfriends, the girl next door is there whenever he decides he wants that, he’s good at football and turned down the captaincy, he gets to play his music, got built a sound lab at home, got special tutoring and help from a teacher and the Pussycats, has a very supportive father, has the most supportive group of close friends, is the most popular kid in school, and gets to do whatever he wants by teenage standards. And we’re supposed to root for this guy? If he’s not the show’s namesake, he reads like the villain in every other series/movies. Not only that, but we’re supposed to feel BAD for him? Why? Because the teacher went away? Because his parents are separated? Because the music school guy correctly pointed out that his music is actually bad? Come on, now.

Archie is dangerously close to bumping Ted Mosby as captain of The Ted Mosby All-Stars for lead characters nobody actually roots for and only exists as a device to further the plot and other, more likable characters to orbit around.

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