Checking in on Pascal Siakam

It is uncommon for a late-first round draft pick to be press-ganged into starting more than thirty games for a playoff team; it is even more rare for that player to exceed expectations. However, Pascal Siakam seems to be doing just that in his sophomore season: outstripping any reasonable projections based on his first-season play.

Siakam came into the NBA rawer than sushi. Seriously, on the grade from sushi to overcooked steak, he was a still-living salmon, swimming upstream and trying to get to baby-making. Despite two seasons at New Mexico State, Siakam remained ungainly, almost unused to his own length and height. He loped more than ran, like a foal testing the limits of its body. His jump-shot was mechanical and slow, his defense was hyperactive, and he looked uncomfortable with the ball.

Needless to say, Siakam had a poor rookie season, at least by the standards of a team that cared only about its lofty win-now standards. However, the basics were there for a young man whom the Raptors drafted with a first-round pick.

Siakam quickly established himself as one of the fastest bigs in the league in transition, and his motor was constantly revving. He leaked out on every missed shot that he had no chance to rebound, and he often snuck behind defenses for easy and early baskets. A young and mistake-prone defense could concede several of these bunnies a game to Siakam:

While his defense was a net negative, with an unsightly defensive rating of 106.4 (comparable to noted Raptor lockdown defender DeMarre Carroll or big-man sieves Greg Monroe and Dirk Nowitzki), the tools were observable. Siakam displayed quick feet, active hands, and the length and willingness (over-willingness) to contest every shot in his vicinity.

Then he was demoted. By all accounts, Siakam took his demotion to the bench – which coincided with Serge Ibaka’s trade to Toronto – personally. However, he responded exactly how any team would want: refocussing his efforts, locking himself in the gym, and playing well wherever he could. Siakam played so well with the minutes he could find for the Raptors 905 that he led them to a G-League title in the 905’s inaugural season, winning Finals MVP in the process.

Coming into 2017-18, Siakam seemed to offer little more than high energy in a low-minutes role, perhaps even achieving a positive plus/minus. Siakam has blown those expectations out of the water. His numbers have improved, but not as much as you might expect given my gushing:

He can still look tentative in the half-court offense, and he can still occasionally be frozen out by DeMar DeRozan, though Kyle Lowry and Siakam have developed a sneaky chemistry. Translation: the young player is experiencing young player problems.

But look deeper at his stats, and much has changed. Siakam is a far better decision-maker. His assist percentage and usage rate have grown massively, while his turnover rate has dropped, per Ben Falk of Cleaning the Glass. These are unlikely combinations. He is taking far more corner 3s and far fewer midrange shots. He has become a more accurate shooter, with his effective field goal percentage jumping from 50.3% in 2016-17 to 54.0 this year, despite his ridiculously cold shooting streak from 3.

More importantly for his development than whether the ball finds the bottom of the net from 3, Siakam looks smooth. His form has improved dramatically, from this:

To this:

His shot is faster and more natural. Look closer: he keeps far more balance during the shot, and his release point is, you know, straight. He jumps straight with real body control, which allows him to keep control over the shot despite moving the ball on the left-right plane during his gather. He is taking a third of his shots from behind on the arc and earning occasional respect from that distance. In the above clip against Boston, Lucas Nogueira even looked off marksman C.J. Miles for Siakam, who jab-stepped Al Horford to gain some space and launched. He’s made strides, even if his percentages haven’t.

Siakam’s handle and finishing have made more impressive jumps than his jump-shooting. Here he recognizes that the Celtics are overplaying Nogueira in the middle of the floor and Delon Wright in the weak side corner – two non-shooters – which means Siakam has a one-on-one opportunity against Boston rookie Semi Ojeleye with no help. He recognizes the advantage and drives without hesitation, keeping the ball high against the smaller defender:

Siakam is even a good passer! He can read defenses in real time and make plays off the bounce, which is a far cry from his rookie decision making. His passing has advanced from this:

To this:

That’s some kind of leap. He can make reads, draw defenders, and find teammates, all while moving at high speeds. This is what it looks like when pundits say ‘the game is slowing down for him’: his mind is beginning to move as fast as his body. It took players like John Wall and Russell Westbrook years to be able to leverage their top-end speed to their consistent advantage, and it seems as though Siakam is turning a corner.

Despite incredible inconsistency – which is common for all but the most outrageously talented prospects – Siakam has had his explosions. With Jonas Valanciunas injured early in the year, Siakam shattered Golden State, going on a personal 10-0 run, and single-handedly keeping the Raptors in the game, only for the team to lose when DeRozan isolated time and again against the entire Golden State defense. This brings us to what Toronto needs to succeed, as DeRozan and Lowry cannot drag a team full of situational role players to the finals or beyond.

Can Siakam become an offensive cog that the Raptors need: another (a?) big who makes fast and intelligent decisions, drives and shoots well, and toggles quickly into screens, hand-offs, and other Raptors-y actions? Siakam has shown all the tools required to vastly lift the Raptors’ ceiling in the future. When his 3 starts falling, he will have the whole package on offense: passing, shooting, and intelligence.

On defense, Siakam is on another planet already. He will most likely not be a full-time center for the Raptors (who already have a young, improving, and defensive center in Jakob Poeltl), as he is too short, at 6’9” and far too thin. His block rate was inflated in his rookie year by his energetic yet out-of-position gambles, yet he has shown more ability to effectively defend the rim this year with less pomp. Players shoot 8.6% worse from six feet and closer with Siakam defending the shot, which is comparable to true rim protectors Myles Turner (7.5% worse), Rudy Gobert (9.8% worse), or Draymond Green (8.2% worse).

He is already one of the team’s best defenders, projecting to be a lockdown wing- and big- defender on a team with few stoppers. His defensive rating is 101.2, third lowest amongst Raptors rotation players, and comparable to Rudy Gobert (101.1), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (101.2) and Andre Igoudala (101.5). Watch:

Here he moves his feet to contain a much-speedier (but is he?) Cory Joseph’s first attack. He funnels him away from the middle, keeps his footing on a hesitation in-and-out, and only jumps to block the shot after Joseph is already committed to his finishing move. Truly awesome exhibition of athleticism, patience, and execution.

He has the foot speed to guard wings (and even guards), and he’s played so well that he’ll even pick up some minutes at small forward when there is a need, as happened during Norman Powell and CJ Miles injuries; the team will find Siakam time wherever it can, even if he’s out of position. His versatility on defense and ability to defend all over the court means that he can help a switching Raptors’ defense that includes rookie O.G. Anunoby (net rating of +26.1 in a not-tiny 87 minutes). His skills on offense mean that he can complement both Lowry and DeRozan in their continued transition to a more free-passing, egalitarian offense.

I wrote in my pre-season preview of Siakam that “the best-case scenario is that Siakam earns – instead of is pressed into – 10-15 minutes at both big spots and contributes positive minutes off the bench.” Holy shit do I use a lot of dashes. More importantly, Siakam is far surpassing my expectations. With his newfound adaptability, he can be played in virtually any frontcourt combination. The JV-Siakam pairing that looked so horrible last year? Not so bad this year, with a +2.0 net rating. He is already the third big in the rotation behind Valanciunas and Ibaka, and the chatter might not stop there. The present might soon be making way for the future in Toronto, as Pascal Siakam demands to be on the court. So let the kid shoot 3s even if they aren’t going in today; the Raptors of the future will be thankful for their past patience.