The Small Forward Conundrum

For centuries, since time immemorial, or at least since the dawn of the Kyle Lowry-DeMar DeRozan era, the Toronto Raptors have lacked production at the small forward position. But should our expectations change? Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are larger-than-life presences on the court, inhaling oxygen on every basketball play. Both are likely to finish any possession in which they play, as they have led the team in field goal attempts since Rudy Gay was railroaded out of town.

So what’s a guy to do next to them? For bigs, it’s relatively easy. Set millions of screens, rebound like a monster, make shots when they give you the ball, and defend near the rim. It makes sense that the Raptors have had a modicum of success when playing centers next to each other (think Amir Johnson, Lucas Nogueira, or even Serge Ibaka next to Jonas Valanciunas). Lowry and DeRozan do enough that they don’t need a playmaker at the power forward position. While playing two traditional bigs next to each other doesn’t work for any other team (except for the outlying Pelicans), it works for the Raptors because of the construct of the team.

But what’s the role for a player who isn’t used to set screens on offence? How can a small forward help Lowry or DeRozan? Primarily, they should be able to hit their open jumpshots (which will come in abundance due to defensive pressure and traps on the stars). They also need to be able to drive and finish at the rim, as well as to move the ball to the open man. On defence, the main role is to defend the opposing team’s most important wing, as Casey is unhappy tasking DeRozan with that role. Let’s look at who has filled the small forward position for the Raptors during the Lowry-DeRozan era.

Note: I haven’t chosen the players who started the most games for each year. Carroll would appear more than once, sadly. I just chose a different sampling of small forwards, one important contributor from each year, to offer a variety of examples.

All statistics taken from Basketball Reference.

Small forwards for the Raptors have had the important job, first and foremost, of being able to defend LeBron James. Note how each of the above players, minus Terrence Ross, is a huge small forward; many even log minutes at power forward. Part of playing in the same conference as LeBron James is the reality that one must eventually defend him in the playoffs.

A small forward playing for the Toronto Raptors need not dribble. More important is being able to stroke 3s, especially as DeMar DeRozan has been unwilling to shoot 3s until this season. Terrence Ross fit in well because the Raps frequently ran him around several baseline screens to trigger a quick-hitting, above-the-break 3. Unfortunately, he couldn’t do anything else. James Johnson was an excellent defender, but his inability to hit outside shots (but willingness to take them) and proclivity to force turnovers as a result of wild passes positioned him firmly in Dwane Casey’s doghouse.

Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan draw lots of traps. When they draw defensive attention and throw the ball to another player, oftentimes he will be positioned well behind the arc to allow a passing angle. With a defender closing quickly, the correct basketball player is often to pump fake and drive to the rim. Raptors small forwards must drive towards and finish at the rim, which was a fatal weakness for Carroll and Tucker. Any drives from either player frequently resulted in awkward floaters or stilted midrange jumpers. Both were also poor playmakers.

This leaves O.G. Aunoby. He can defend at a high level – even LeBron James, if the one example we have is to be believed. His 3-point stroke was deadly to begin the season, though it has recently cooled. He is an able passer and a great finisher around the rim. It is possible that he will fulfill the many requirements for a Raptors small forward, but that would make him the first.

One piece of evidence that playing small forward for the Raptors is particularly hard is that so many who have failed have succeeded after leaving the team. James Johnson has thrived as a point forward for the Miami Heat. Coach Spoelstra is willing to let him play through his high turnover rate. In Brooklyn, DeMarre Carroll has also (kind of) turned into the player the Raptors believed they signed away from Atlanta. This year, Carroll’s scoring, rebounding, and assisting are all up, along with the extra freedom provided by a higher usage rate. No small forward for the Raptors has ever been able to crack a 20% usage rate, which has been afforded to several players this year: Lowry, DeRozan, Jonas Valanciunas, Serge Ibaka, C.J. Miles, and Norman Powell.

It’s hard to be able to do everything the Raptors require – defend the best opposing wing, hit 3s, move the ball, and finish at the rim – without the rhythm built up by actually touching the ball. Low-usage, high-efficiency players are not easy to find. The only wings this season to post low defensive ratings (<104), shoot efficiently from 3 (>37%) and at the rim (FG%>47%), and have a low usage rate (<20%) are Jayson Tatum, Kyle Anderson, Robert Covington, and Danny Green. None have a high assist rate. Only 3 wings ever have accomplished all of the above criteria while also posting assist rates above 20%: Nate McMillan (several times), a young Andre Igoudala, and an old Tracy McGrady. Players that do all of these things are rare.

All of this is to say that it’s difficult to be a Raptors small forward. Norman Powell has struggled in the role, with a fluctuating 3-point%, as well as a too-high usage rate; he uses too much oxygen when he plays next to Lowry and DeRozan. He also struggles to make plays for others and finish at the rim. Carroll actually accomplished the requirements in Atlanta, but broke down due to injury during his tenure in Toronto. Perhaps his success in Brooklyn is entirely due to a higher usage rate and more health. The point is that it’s hard to be good without dominating the ball. There is no guarantee that success elsewhere will equate to success in Toronto. Such is the nature of playing the wing position next to Lowry and DeRozan.

Other teams with similar, guard-dominant make-ups have also struggled to find small forwards. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum have never found a good player next to them on the wing, and their combined shooting is superior to what Lowry-DeRozan offer. John Wall and Bradley Beal have an impressive small forward, though Wall didn’t think Otto Porter Jr. was enough, and for a long time, people thought Porter was a bust.

Though it’s hard to be a successful small forward next to two ball-dominant guards, Anunoby seems to be on the right path. His handle is improving, but it’s not an important requirement. His jumpshot is better than advertised, and his man-on-man defence is impressive. He can guard wings as speedy and tricksy as James Harden or as massive and strong as LeBron. He is already a solid passer, and best of all, he doesn’t use many possessions.

Can Anunoby do more than he currently does for the Raptors? It is clear that James Johnson could, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Johnson was a good fit in Toronto. If Anunoby matures enough to demand more reps at finishing possessions, then hopefully Lowry will be willing to give up those touches. He already is averaging his fewest field goal attempts per game since 2012-13, his first year in Toronto. But for now, Anunoby fits well. It’s hard to not touch the ball for several possessions in a row and then show no hesitation on an open 3, but that’s how the Raps are training Anunoby to see the game.

The small forward position has troubled the Raptors since the halcyon days of Carter-McGrady. But perhaps our expectations have been wrong. Fans have wanted another star, but perhaps all the Raptors have needed was a wing who could do practically everything without using too many possessions. It’s a shame that such a wing is potentially harder to find than a star, but fortunately, the team is already grooming one such player on the roster.