At this point of the long journey known as the NBA’s regular season, we know that in all likelihood the Toronto Raptors will finish with the first-seed in the Eastern Conference for the first time in franchise history. We also know that unless another higher-seeded team underperforms the rest of the way, the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks will remain the two frontrunners to face the Raptors in the first round of the postseason. Each team has unique strengths and weaknesses, so without further ado let’s break down how each of these franchises matches up with the Raptors in a seven-game series.
Miami Heat
Of the teams in the hunt to face the Raptors in round one, the Miami Heat have the most similar roster composition to the Raptors. Just like Toronto, Miami possesses an abundance of depth on its roster and often trots out 10 or 11-man rotations. While the Raptors clearly possess the stronger bench unit of the two teams, the Heat reserves can’t be taken lightly since they can hurt you in so many ways.
Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra tends to juggle his rotations quite a bit, but usually, his bench unit features some combination of Wayne Ellington, Kelly Olynyk, Justise Winslow, Tyler Johnson and Dwayne Wade (when healthy). Each piece of the bench brings something unique to the table, whether it be Winslow’s superb defence or Ellington’s 3-point shooting. That range of skillsets tends to create matchup problems for opponents.
The Heat reserves are far more of a headache to contain than the second units out in Philadelphia and Milwaukee. Based on that logic, it makes sense that if any team were to have any success neutralizing the Raptors ‘bench mob’, it’d be the Heat.
With all that said, rotations typically shrink down to seven or eight players as a series progresses, so depending on the length of the series, the benches may prove to be less important than initially thought. That’s what happened the last time these two teams met in the postseason back in 2016 when both teams’ rotations got smaller as the series went along. By the time Game 7 rolled around, both Toronto and Miami leaned on only eight guys apiece. Yes, both the Heat and Raptors have had a decent amount of roster overhaul since then, but the same trend could emerge nonetheless.
Aside from having a ton of depth, the Heat also ranks top-10 in 3-pointers made and 3-pointers attempted this season. Toronto should be able to neutralize that element of Miami’s game quickly in a playoff series, though, considering the Raptors limit opponents to a league-low 8.9 3-point makes per game on an average of 25 attempts (ranks second-lowest in the league).
When it comes to star power, Miami doesn’t have much of it outside of Goran Dragic. As for Toronto, the team is led by two stars in Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan who make up one of the game’s strongest backcourts. The Raptors own the star power edge, which is important given the star-driven nature of the NBA and how much players of that pedigree are able to swing games.
Miami has played Toronto closely, winning one of two games against the Raps this season. Call me crazy, but an under-the-radar team like the Heat kind of scares me.
Milwaukee Bucks
All conversations about the Milwaukee Bucks as a playoff contender must begin and end with Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Greek Freak is one of the most exciting players in the NBA and has proven he can take over a game on both ends of the court. The Raptors saw flashes of how lethal he can be in the postseason just one year ago when they faced the Bucks in a tightly contested six-game series. Since then, Antetokounmpo has only gotten better in all facets of his game, which should be a terrifying prospect for the Bucks potential playoff opponents. When comparing the Bucks and Raptors star power, I have to side with Milwaukee solely because of Antetokounmpo. Whether the advantage in star power actually pushes the Bucks to victory remains to be seen.
Aside from Antetokounmpo, the Bucks possess a strong collection of talent including Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, and oft-injured Jabari Parker. Reigning Rookie of the Year Malcolm Brogdon should be back in time for the playoffs, too. On paper, you’d think with a core of that caliber the Bucks would be near the top of the Eastern Conference standings. Guess again. Milwaukee has struggled to play with consistency this season, having strung together modest four-game winning streaks on only two separate occasions. It’s no surprise the team finds itself fighting for a bottom-four seed.
When it comes to an aspect of the game the Bucks excel at, the answer is not one in particular; the Bucks are the definition of a middle-of-the-pack team. Yes, they do rank top-five in both steals per game and blocks per game, but the significance of those statistics is inflated. Looking at Milwaukee’s defensive rating helps paint a clearer picture, as the Bucks rank a modest 16th overall at 106.9. On the other side of the ball, the Bucks are above average with a top-10 offensive rating of 107.7.
Unlike the Heat, the Bucks have one of the league’s weaker bench units that ranks 21th in net rating at minus-3.9. In a series against Toronto, the Bucks best course of action would be shrinking the rotation to seven players from the get-go. You know what’s downright intimidating? A rotation featuring Antetokoumpo, Middleton, Bledsoe, Parker, Henson, Brogdon, and Maker. Actually, on second thought, only three or four players from the previous sentence have me worried if I’m the Raptors coaching staff. I digress…
If the Raptors were to land Milwaukee in round one and the Bucks shorten their rotation as expected, then if I’m Casey I would go the other way and stick with a 10-man rotation. What better way to beat your opponent than to physically exhaust them? If the Raptors play 10-deep, the entire rotation will be far more rested than the Bucks would be. And if Milwaukee tries to counter Toronto’s 10-man rotation with a deeper bench of its own, then the Raptors will simply annihilate them in those minutes. It’s a win-win no matter how you slice it.
Between the Bucks and Heat, I’ve still got to side with Miami as the bigger threat. Antetokounmpo is a nightmare matchup, but if you’re able to limit him, then you’re in turn able to limit the Bucks collectively. The same can’t be said for the Heat; if you shut down Dragic, Miami still has plenty of other players capable of hurting you offensively.
Both teams present their own unique obstacles for Toronto. With the playoffs only a few weeks away, it will become more clear which of these teams the Raptors match up with. Regardless of which team it ends up being, the Raptors have more talent on paper and should be able to handle whoever their opponent is. If I’m Toronto, I’d be rooting to face the Bucks. The series in all likelihood wouldn’t be as closely contested this time around.
