After winning three Game 3s in a row two years ago, the Raptors lost both last year, and the one that comes to mind ahead of tonight is Game 3 against Milwaukee where we got crushed 104-77. The similarities lie in how the first two games played out. Like Milwaukee, Washington has played relatively well so far without any reward (the Bucks did win Game 1). They’ve huffed and puffed, dominated stretches, but have been unable to click from start-to-finish, and lie in a 0-2 hole. Odds are that they’re bound to put a complete game together at some point and their home crowd could be the catalytic spark that rouses them into action. Like Game 3 in Milwaukee last year, the stage is set for Washington to jump right out of the gates. And I’m not even counting the Wale effect.
The Wizard went 5-1 at home last playoffs as they beat Atlanta before losing to Boston, so there is recent history suggesting they’re a stronger bunch at home. This makes the first quarter of Game 3 critical because Washington has to be feeling like they “deserved” to win one of the first two games, and no better place to right that wrong by making a mark early on their home floor. To counter, the Raptors have to just play even in the first to “win” the quarter, and the absolute last thing they need to do is get into an up-and-down game early. For a full 48 minutes, the Raptors can beat the Wizards in open, high-pace play, but in the vacuum of the first quarter in Game 3, they have a risk of getting trampled if they accept the offer to a track meet.
The are three items of business that the Raptors have to take care of early on Friday: 1) no live-ball turnovers, 2) bigs offensive rebounding, and 3) getting to the FT line at the same rate as they’ve been doing.
The key thing we have to avoid doing in the first quarter are live-ball turnovers. These are dangerous at any time, but especially on the road against guys like John Wall and Bradley Beal who live off this action, and know how such turnovers when converted into breaks can make crowds erupt and deflate opponents. This is then further reinforced by the Raptors trying to “silence” the crowd by trying to make big plays, which unsurprisingly happen to be low percentage shots and are thus missed, sparking more fast-breaks, a widening deficit. And so on. It’s a classical systems thinking archetype.
Phil Jackson once said:
Basketball is a simple game. Your goal is penetration, get the ball close to the basket, and there are three ways to do that. Pass, dribble and offensive rebound.
And then someone told Phil the game becomes even simpler if you have MJ, Scottie, Kobe and Shaq. Still, though, there’s something to be taken from that quote which applies to the Raptors and that’s offensive rebounding. The Raptors had a 9-4 edge in Game 2 and that’s without Jonas Valanciunas playing any of the fourth quarter. There are few better ways to deflate a crowd and a team than to score on offensive rebounds, and that’s something the Raptors, with Ibaka and Valanciunas, can do against the Wizards frontline. Not the guards though, they have to stay well back and try to slow down potential fast breaks, and that’s more applicable to Lowry than anyone who has a tendency to squeeze amongst the trees for rebounds. A great quality usually, but one that needs to be shelved in the first quarter of Game 3.
Getting inside early is obviously important but so is getting to the line and slowing the game down. The Raptors have done well in first quarters through the first two games going 4-6 and 5-6 from the stripe, respectively. That trend has to continue and every visit to the line has to be elongated by the FT shooter high-fiving all of the other four players, the subs bench, Dwane Casey, Matt Devlin, two of the ushers, and the public address announcer. It’s the only way to do it really.
When picking the Raptors in five for this series like I did, I thought about which game they are likely to drop and it was between 3 and 4. The reason I picked Game 3 was because if the Wizards have any real fight, it’ll come out in Game 3. They don’t strike me as a team that when down 3-0 will be arsed to give it a college try in Game 4, so I have to think that Friday night is where their hopes and dreams lie.
Some random musings so far:
- Pascal Siakam step aside, Delon Wright is my new favorite player
- Remember when Norm was jokingly talked about as Russell Westbrook Lite?
- DeMar is 5-11 3FG (45%) so far – can this dream continue?
- Odds are Ty Lawson ain’t doing that again, so no special plans needed
- Gortat will be wanting to redeem himself and can be baited into picking up early fouls
- Surprised Markieff Morris was such a non-factor in Game 2, just didn’t get any touches
- Mike Scott will likely start Game 3, Scottie Brooks has to look like he’s thinking
- Wizards guards aren’t great at chasing through screens, DeRozan can peel for Js easily
- I don’t think we’ve even seen one bad Ibaka step-back jumper
- Isn’t it amazing to watch all these NBA games/feeds for free online so easily?
See you after the game on the post-game pod.
