The Toronto Raptors are back home awaiting an opponent. They know they’ll open their second-round series Tuesday at 8 pm at home but they don’t yet know an opponent. As a result, they’re holding off practicing until tonight, when they’ll know for whom they’re preparing.
This afternoon’s Game 7 between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers is well worth watching for Raptors fans, then. The winner will head directly to Toronto with only one day off, with the rest of the series scheduled as follows:
Who you’re rooting for Sunday is a matter of perspective, and I’ve oscillated on it a bit over the last 36 hours or so. On the one hand, the Pacers represent an easier matchup – they’ve played the Cavaliers well but don’t match up quite the same with Toronto, and Toronto can feel comfortable in their regular-season success and the way in which they line up. Again, Indiana is good and a great story, but they don’t quite carry the cache of the Cavaliers. The Cavs, meanwhile, are a bit of a mess but there’s almost no way they shoot this poorly in another series, and they employ the best player in the world in LeBron James. But Cleveland also provides the best narrative arc for the Raptors, an opportunity to take a huge step forward after losing to them in two consecutive postseasons. I wouldn’t fault someone for wanting to be the ones to take James out himself, nor would I fault someone wanting the easier path in Indiana.
So, which is it, then?
If you look on Canadian betting sites, the Cavaliers are 5.5-point favorites at home and a -240 favorite to win outright, an implied probability of about 70 percent. That’s well within “weighted coin flip” territory as opposed to them being a heavy favorite, and James has sometimes struggled (by his immense standards) in afternoon games, perhaps owing to his rigorous and detailed game-day routines. It will be interesting to see how the Raptors’ odds to exit the Eastern Conference shift depending on the winner here – Toronto is currently the No. 2 favorite (after Philadelphia) to make the NBA Finals from the East at +150 (Philly is +140), and the Cavaliers (+350) have significantly better odds than the Pacers (+2800). It stands to reason that an Indiana win would make the Raptors the favorite once again, while Cleveland making it through would make them something closer to a 50-50 to get out of the second round. The Raptors will be favorites in their second-round series regardless.
The Raptors, for their part, were talking Friday like it makes no difference to them either way, which is exactly the attitude they should have (while also avoiding Jason Smith-style whiteboard material for their opponent).
We’ll have the usual practice news & notes later on this evening, as well as a schedule update once we know an opponent. Obviously, we can’t start getting preview content up until there’s an opponent, so apologies for a bit of a lazy Sunday here. Enjoy the game, and we’ll talk to you a little later. Love you.
