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Raptors-Cavaliers Series Preview: Q&A with the enemy

There's more to this than LeBron. But there's a lot of LeBron.

You wanted a third shot at LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers? You got it. After a second-round sweep at the hands of the Cavs in 2016-17, that itself on the heels of a six-game defeat in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2015-16, the Toronto Raptors reset the culture, became better than they’d ever been before in finishing 59-23 and earning the top seed in the Eastern Conference, and for all that success they earned the right to square off with the Cavaliers in the second round once again. It’s earlier than maybe you’d hoped, but there can be no greater opportunity to complete the redemptive arc than finally overcoming the one consistent obstacle in their path. That obstacle is wounded. The Cavaliers finished 50-32 and were dragged by James and an ever-changing cadre of support pieces through a first-round series with the Indiana Pacers. The Raptors are, by most objective measures, better. That doesn’t always matter in a seven-game series, particularly one featuring James. There’s plenty to unpack here.

To help set the stage for the series, we reached out to Mike Zavagno of Fear the Sword, and he was kind enough to provide deep, thoughtful answers to an annoyingly long list of questions I sent his way. The guys at FTS do great work, and Mike’s video breakdowns are incredibly helpful. Here’s your full list of Cavaliers follows for the series.

For fun, here are these same Q&As for 2017 and 2016. “Fun,” he says.

This is the first time that the Cavaliers will play the Raptors in the playoffs without the benefit of significant rest. In 2016, they were coming off of a pair of sweeps. Last year, a single sweep. In both cases, the Raptors went six or seven heading in. This time around, Cleveland is coming off of a grueling seven-game series with the Pacers while the Raptors had three days off in wait. There are also no double off-days on the schedule. How much of a factor do you see fatigue playing in this series? LeBron James is super-human, but he’s never had to do so much so early, and the Raptors’ have been able to keep the workloads for their stars reasonable all year – and first round – long.

Mike Zavagno: I think that we could see fatigue play a role in both Game 1 and as the series progresses. LeBron James played 86 percent of Cleveland’s Round 1 minutes and they were not easy minutes by any means. He scored 241 points and assisted on 136 more, accounting for 58.5 percent of Cleveland’s points against Indiana. James’ 34.5 percent usage rate probably understates the contributions required of him in the series. But he is super-human. As for the rest of the Cavaliers, they certainly played more high stress minutes than they were likely expecting in the First Round. With only one day off, Toronto could make a statement in Game 1 by pushing the pace and attempting to ignite that exhaustion. James’ heavy minutes load were a large contributing factor to Cleveland playing the slowest First Round series (92.92 possessions per game).

Similarly, Kevin Love and George Hill are entering at least a little banged up. What were they able to provide in the first round against Indiana, and how imperative is it for Cleveland that they get something closer to full health?

Mike Zavagno: One of the largest takeaways from the Indiana series was Love’s struggles. Largely due to Thad Young’s physical defense, he shot just 33.3 percent from the field and just 13 of 46 from 2-point range. Never a high turnover player, Love committed 16 turnovers in the series and looked completely flustered at times. We have yet to hear definitively how much his left thumb injury has played into his struggles but it’s hard to conclude that it isn’t making an impact.

As for Hill, he returned from a back injury sustained on a Trevor Booker screen to play 19 consecutive minutes in the second half of Game 7. Hill galvanized the offense, scoring 11 points and dishing out three assists while also stabilizing coverages on the defensive end. His secondary ball-handling alleviated some pressure off James and created open looks for Love when Indiana was reluctant to switch the 1-5 pick and roll. Hill was on a minutes restriction of 18-20 minutes for Game 7 so you would expect that to continue at least early in the series. Hill’s health is paramount to the Cleveland offense.

When he and Love shared the floor in the regular season, the Cavs had a 128.4 offensive rating. Love shot 4.3 percent better from the field and 9.2 percent better from three with Hill on the floor. Indiana was able to pressure JR Smith and Kyle Korver into turnovers when James surrendered the ball, so having that secondary creator is imperative going forward.

Because of injury and ineffectiveness, Ty Lue has juggled his starting lineups with some regularity, including in the first round. It’s great to have options, of course, and it’s good for Cleveland that they can throw out a few different fivesomes that make sense. Who do you expect to draw the start in Game 1 against the Raptors? The James-Love frontcourt is objectively the most difficult for Toronto to defend but it creates a bit of a rotational depth imbalance for Cleveland while also making them susceptible inside. Does Tristan Thompson draw in? Jeff Green, if not?

Mike Zavagno: After Tristan Thompson’s performance in Game 7, it is hard for me to envision him falling out of the starting lineup right away. My guess is they will go with George Hill (if healthy), JR Smith, LeBron James, Kevin Love and Thompson. This slots Love back down to the 4 where he appears more comfortable and leaves JR Smith to guard DeMar DeRozan after he had success on Victor Oladipo in the First Round.

By starting Love, you do lose the benefit of Toronto potentially guarding him with Valanciunas. Cleveland had a 167 oRTG on the possessions Love was guarded by Valanciunas or Poeltl in the two post-Trade Deadline matchups. But Toronto may attempt to copy Indiana’s plan and slot Valanciunas on Smith even with Love at the 5. If Hill is not healthy, I would expect Kyle Korver to take his place in the starting lineup. If Korver does come off the bench, he should provide more structure offensively to a second unit that struggled to find its bearings on that end vs Indiana.

The Cavaliers’ defense has relied pretty heavily on traps against the pick-and-roll in recent years, especially against star lead ball-handlers. They used those traps to pretty good effect against the Raptors in recent years, as well as against Victor Oladipo and the Pacers. The Raptors have grown much better at attacking those traps, though, as a part of their offensive culture reset. Washington even had to largely abandon the strategy after two games. Is it possible Cleveland will shift their defensive approach if Toronto’s stars are making the right reads and their role player’s are making plays, or is this the way they have to play with this personnel?

Mike Zavagno: Cleveland held Indiana to 15 points on 21 possessions when they trapped Oladipo in the First Round. As an adjustment, the Pacers put the ball in Darren Collison’s hands more – scoring 49 points on the 43 possessions he handled in pick and roll. If I were in charge, I would not come out of the gate trapping DeRozan. His decision-making has improved significantly and he demonstrated the ability to pass early when faced with the trap against Cleveland in the regular season. But I expect the Cavs to rely on that strategy until it fails against DeRozan while employing a more traditional drop scheme against Lowry. I expect Smith and Green to get the lion’s share of the minutes guarding DeRozan in the series.

Similarly, the Pacers seemed to have some success trying to spread things out and tasking Oladipo with attacking in isolation. The Cavs ranked dead-last in isolation defense this year, so that’s not surprising. It’s antithetical to how Toronto wants to play now, anyway, but if you’re the Raptors, are you hunting one-on-one matches to attack a bit more often here?

Mike Zavagno: The Pacers scored 48 points on 49 Oladipo Isolations (0.98 points per possession) in the First Round. That was much better than the mark posted when his teammates isolated – 50 points on 68 possessions (0.74 ppp). I think the Raptors should continue to work through their offense rather than trying to hunt matchups. Generally speaking, the Cavs are much more susceptible to pick and roll than isolations. Ditto for having to defend multiple offensive actions throughout the shot clock. Toronto should not compromise its offensive scheme and revert to ISO-ball in the series.

Two years ago, Matthew Dellavedova became the scourge of Raptors fans. Last year, Channing Frye – a very nice and likable human being – continued his seasons-long torturing act of the team. Which non-James Cavalier figures to come out of this series the least popular player in Toronto? Is it Cedi SZN?

Mike Zavagno: This is a tough one. I don’t think Osman will play. Maybe Tristan Thompson if he continues to start and make an impact on the offensive glass? George Hill has some “how is he doing this?” potential if he remains healthy.

Obviously, there is no solution to James. He is the best player in the league, of this generation, and perhaps of all time. In the last two postseasons, the Raptors have tried loading up on him and daring his teammates to beat them, and they have tried guarding James straight up, staying at home on teammates, and hoping his singular dominance is not enough. Neither has worked. Both, at times, have been disasters. This time around, the Raptors will start OG Anunoby on him and use Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam frequently, as well. Has there been anything that’s “worked” (read: been slightly less deadly) against James this season? Indiana had nothing to slow him and they took Cleveland to seven, but there’s almost no way the Cavs’ role players shoot that poorly again, right?

Mike Zavagno: I thought Indiana’s best tactic against James in the First Round was ratcheting up the physicality with him off the ball. When he went to set up in the post, Bojan Bogdanovic essentially leaned his entire body weight against James to push the catch further away from the paint. They bumped him when he went to set ball screens. Given his minutes load, this level of physicality certainly increases the likelihood that he tires out as the game wears on.

As for the Cavs’ role players, I do not believe that they can possibly shoot this poorly. Prior to Game 7, Cleveland shot eight percent worse than its regular season average on wide open 3s. Through the first five games, they made 11 fewer three pointers than expected based on shot quality. They shot just 26.7 percent on corner threes after shooting 44.7 percent on them following the Trade Deadline. Some of the misses were truly baffling. Despite Kyle Korver going just 1-5 from deep, things started to turn around a bit for the Cavs in Game 7. George Hill helps. I would be shocked if they shoot 32 percent from downtown again.

Jonas Valanciunas has been a hot topic entering this matchup in each of the last two series and figures to be again here. He’s improved enough at both ends of the floor where I, personally, wouldn’t hesitate to start him so long as one of Jeff Green or the centers is in the starting lineup, or maybe even J.R. Smith. The Raptors can’t really rebound without him, and their pick-and-roll attack is significantly more effective when he’s on the floor. From Cleveland’s perspective, are they targeting Valanciunas whenever he’s out there? At the Cavs hoping Toronto goes smaller and minimizes Valanciunas’ role so that one of Toronto’s biggest strengths is taken away? He’s an interesting chess piece here.

Mike Zavagno: As I mentioned above, Cleveland destroyed Toronto in the post-Trade Deadline games whenever Valanciunas was guarding Love. The Raptors adjusted by shifting Valanciunas to Jeff Green but I do not envision Green to share the floor much with the starters in this series. It is likely that Thompson will provide a hiding spot for Valanciunas (allowing Ibaka to guard Love) but the Cavs will certainly put him in pick and roll with James.

I do think he is an interesting chess piece as his screening played a major part in Toronto’s offense being better with him on the floor in those two games – especially given the exploitable nature of Cleveland’s pick and roll defense. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if we see Cleveland close some games in this series with Love at Center (provided he can get back on track). That will force Toronto to make a decision between rolling with Valanciunas on Love, hiding him on a lesser player like Smith or having Ibaka (or Poeltl) man the middle. It will be an interesting punch-counter punch to watch.

Looking at the entire series, whether it’s Xs & Os or numbers or lineup options or whatever, what do you see as the Cavs’ biggest strength in this series? Their biggest weakness?

Mike Zavagno: LeBron James. James comes off a First Round series where he averaged 34.4 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 7.7 assists on 55.3 percent shooting. He probably could have averaged a triple-double had some open shots fallen. He attempted 41.3 percent of his shots at the rim and made them at a 79 percent clip. Oh, and he drew 62 fouls over the 7 games and shot 81.8 percent from the line – including sinking 25 free throws in a row.

He averaged 31.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 11.5 assists per game in the two post-Trade Deadline games against Toronto. He shot 57.6 percent from the field and 44.4 percent from 3. He shot 14-17 at the rim and attempted 25 free throws. The teams were different but he averaged 36 points on 57.3 percent shooting in last year’s playoffs vs Toronto and 26 points on 62.2 percent shooting the year before.

I’d say that’s a pretty good strength to have.

As for weaknesses, I would say the largest one continues to be how Cleveland defends the pick and roll. Indiana roll men scored 1.27 points per possession in the First Round and the Pacers were able to take advantage of Cleveland’s lackluster rim protection to the tune of 68.1 percent shooting. Toronto should be able to take advantage of this with both Valanciunas and Poeltl – as they did in the First Round to the tune of 1.02 points per play. Toronto’s structured offensive attack should help them find breakdowns in Cleveland’s defense, whether it’s by pushing the ball in transition or remaining disciplined in the half court.

I would add health as a secondary weakness. The Cavs would really benefit from both Kevin Love and George Hill being full strength.

Call it.

Mike Zavagno: I’m not going to be the guy who bets against LeBron James in the Eastern Conference playoffs. I will (not so confidently) say Cavs in 6 hard-fought games.

Blake Murphy: I’m not going to be the guy who bets against the Raptors the year they finally break through. I will (not so confidently) say Raptors in 6 games that nearly kill me.

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