Fan Duel Toronto Raptors

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Raptors Republic Chat: is it too early to panic?

In which Louis tries to be funny, but is again the least funny one.

In this chat, we discuss lessons so far from the season, reasonable and unreasonable levels of panic and optimism, and what possible weaknesses we’ve discovered thus far in the season. I should mention that the idea comes from 538, whose politics chats are awesome. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

 

Louis Zatzman

First off, thanks so much for doing this!

So they say that you learn more in losses than wins – what have the last two games taught you guys?

(Other than that the Raptors fan base will panic at the drop of a hat – which we already knew)

 

William Lou

I don’t think this is a case of panic. Those two losses against the Pelicans and Pistons were just deeply humbling. As for what we’ve learned, I think it just illustrates the importance of 3-point shooting. The Raptors shot 17-of-65 over the two losses, and you’re just not going to win in today’s game with performances like that.

Also, JV can’t defend at all. That needs to be said.

 

Louis

I thought you’d at least wait until deeper than 30 seconds in to drop that, haha.

But there are definitely humbling lessons other than shooting. If it’s just shooting, then why worry at all? It’s a high variance thing, so it’ll come around. The Raps have good shooters. But it seems like more going on than just missing shots.

 

Matt Shantz

The shooting variance has to be pointed out, but the flow of the offence in closing moments has to be mentioned.  For example, in the closing moments against Detroit we saw Kawhi get a little iso-happy, and movement stalled. With these being the first glimpses that we’ve seen of the Raptors in pressure situations I wonder if it is just a growing familiarity that we are seeing develop with some hiccups along the way.

 

Louis

I mean, the shooting thing is definitely an answer – take away those twisting Stanley Johnson corner 3s, and the Raps win. Same with those tough Jrue/Moore pull-ups.

 

Matt

Moore just has too much Bulls blood left in his body. The curse lives and we should have seen it coming.

 

Will

There’s an element of variance, but there’s also poor execution. Kawhi Leonard should really get more threes set up for him than just pull-up looks, and the same can be said for Kyle Lowry, who is largely feast or famine.

 

Louis

Lowry being largely feast or famine in his scoring has been true for a while, but he does enough that he still positively affects games even without his shot. Is that true for guys like Fred / Danny Green?

 

Will

Fred’s struggles are a topic onto itself. His performances have been extremely concerning.

As for Danny Green, he’s doing what he’s supposed to. You don’t really want to see him handling the ball or driving to the bucket. He’s just spacing the floor, hitting open shots, popping in for the occasional floater if defenses fly out at him, and playing solid defense.

 

Louis

Yeah, he’s definitely returned to being a normal, good player after being basically Jesus for the first few weeks. Still useful, but this is probably the guy he is now.

 

Will

I hope Fred’s struggles are just injury-related, but I think it actually points to the drawbacks of Nick Nurse’s offense. There’s not as much structure and set plays being called for the second unit, so just about every bench player outside of OG Anunoby is struggling.

 

Louis

That would point towards there being an easy fix – just call set plays!

It would definitely help CJ.

 

Will

Only CJ can help CJ by turning down that Go Daddy money.

 

Louis

Do you guys think the all-bench lineup can work? I would think one of Pascal/Lowry/Kawhi needs to be there to prop up the offence.

 

Matt

It all comes back to Fred’s struggles. Raptors should be fine without Kyle and Kawhi for stretches but they can’t be without someone pushing the pace.  Fred needs to find his game and time/play-calling goes a long way.

 

Will

There needs to be more shot creation off the bench. Last year, that came from the activity of Pascal and Poeltl creating so many deflections that they could get easy baskets in transition. Now that Jonas Valanciunas is in the middle, there aren’t nearly as many opportunities to run, and now the lack of shot creation is exposed in halfcourt.

 

Louis

That’s a good point. Last year’s all-bench was also really bad in the halfcourt on offence.

 

Will

On the bright side, it should improve over time if Fred and Jonas develop some pick and roll chemistry. They’re playing like strangers.

 

Louis

Would playing Ibaka at the center position with the bench help? Starting JV as a possible solution?

 

Will

I don’t see how Serge would help the bench outside of playing better defense. He’s gonna shoot the ball every time he touches it just like Jonas.

 

Matt

While the starters have been fine adjusting to alternating Jonas/Ibaka on a nightly basis, we’ve seen the impact with the bench. Ibaka is a more natural fit with that group, but he has to get significant run with Lowry based on what they’ve shown already. Consistency was a big advantage for the bench mob last year, and they haven’t had that this season under Nurse.

 

Will

Also, we really haven’t shown enough love for how well Serge has played this season. He had 19 points and 14 rebounds against the Pelicans, and it felt like a bad game.

But why would Ibaka fit better with the bench?

Don’t we want Ibaka’s defense against starters?

 

Louis

Yeah, Ibaka has been a monster, and he deserves more love than I’ve given. Being the roll guy with Lowry helps, but he’s just dominated his new role.

But, Will, helping the defence would help the offence a lot, like you said, by getting in transition. Fred-JV just haven’t been able to contain pick and rolls together, like, at all.

 

Will

So in order to solve JV’s mess, Serge now needs to move to the bench and JV should start?

 

Matt

The bench last season has Poeltl as their safety blanket.  They now have Jonas, which we can all agree is a drop off on that end. I’m not arguing for Ibaka to move to the bench full time, but he would help protect them a little better and hopefully give Fred-and-co a push in the right direction. Jonas for all his benefits is an imperfect player for both units.

 

Louis

I mean, do you think it would help? The bench would probably be a lot better, and I’m not sure if the starters would be worse

 

Will

Serge is a better player than Jonas this year, so I think it would help, but that’s like saying benching Kawhi would also help the bench. You can’t treat Serge like that after all the improvements he’s made.

 

Louis

Yeah, that’s a fair point.

 

Will

One solution could be to stagger more of Pascal’s minutes with the bench. We saw that in the Knicks game and I think it worked beautifully. Siakam covers for a lot of Jonas’s shortcomings and can create his owns hot.

I also think there’s a bit of overlap with Siakam and Kawhi both playing so much in the post.

 

Louis

Your point about the post, Will, brings up another point I wanted to ask. Kawhi has been playing in the post / iso a lotttt this year. Is that potentially a problem, that he’s not really playing inside the offence at all? When he did run pnr with Jonas against Detroit, it worked well, but he didn’t do it much.

 

Will

Not all isolations are the same. If Kawhi has a smaller guy on him, then I absolutely want to see the team clear out and get him the ball. The isolations that look bad are the ones where he turns his back at the 3-point line and the floor isn’t spaced properly.

 

Louis

So would you say his playing outside the offence has been an appropriate amount?

 

Matt

At the same time that I’m enjoying some freelancing, it’s a little much for my taste in general.  With that said, it feels like we are still in the experimental phase with Nurse tinkering around and seeing what works.  If we are still seeing this is a month my concern will grow a little.

 

Will

It’s not as if he’s breaking sets. I just don’t think they have a lot of options for how they get Kawhi the ball in his spots.

If anything, we might not be seeing as much experimentation as Nurse initially promised.

 

Louis

I think both of you guys are saying similar things, in that a little more time / coaching should help. Nurse has said not a ton of the offence is installed yet, and more script should help Kawhi attack from advantages, instead of from neutral. More script should also help Fred a LOT.

A lot of fanbase worries should dissipate over the next month or two.

Should being the operative word.

 

Will

We’re always gonna worry about something. Look how hard people were going at CJ, who’s like the 10th man in the rotation, even after easy wins.

 

Louis

Is that a thing in other fanbases?

 

Matt

At least those with 20+ years of conditioning, yes.

 

Will

Yes.

Lakers fans worry about LeBron.

 

Louis

Huh. We really aren’t special

But you know who IS (sweeeeet transition there, boom, check me out)

 

Matt

Boooo.

 

Louis

Pascal and OG have been monsters. Like, huge developmental steps for both of them

I didn’t think either really had all-star games in their future, but now both kind of look like that’s an even bet or even better

 

Matt

I retract my boo as I support all praise of OG and Siakam.

Remember two years ago when Pascal couldn’t dribble or score beyond 3 feet? His pace of development is only rivaled by his speed down the court.

But, a disclaimer: growth isn’t linear. There is no guarantee that Siakam and OG will continue on their trajectory moving up or maintain the speed at which it is going. With that said, they are the present and the future and I love them with my entire being. (Is that too strong?)

 

Louis

Not strong enough, imo.

They are both developing much tighter handles, and they both had solid vision in past years which is improving this year. Now they can both shoot? I mean, come on.

Any reasonable lineup (ie, no Lorenzo or Malachi) with them as interchangeable 3-4s should be dominant on both ends.

 

Matt

Pull back on those horses a little bit. Far too early to say that Siakam can shoot yet. He’s hit 6-of-9 through his last 3 games, but in the seven games prior he went 0-for-12. It’s a work in progress but at least we see hints at the possibility.

 

Louis

True. Fair. But WRONG.

Lol.

His stroke looks good at least, but you’re absolutely right that I’m way too far ahead of myself on his shooting.

 

Matt

I’m trying to maintain some objectivity despite my clear biases…it’s very difficult.

 

Louis

It’s important to note that they haven’t had great net ratings recently despite their play, so it’s not like them scoring well really lines up with the Raptors winning games. But it’s still cool and awesome and fun.

 

Editor’s note: there was a long pause with no one saying much

 

Louis

Alright, looks like no one wants to engage in this group masturbation session I proposed.

Fiiiiine we can move on.

Have we learned anything at this point in the season that we didn’t know a month ago?

 

Matt

We briefly touched on Danny earlier, but I’m sure he has turned the eyes of many. After his struggles last year, I entered the season cautiously optimistic for what he could bring, and have been blown away. A summer of health has gone a long way to getting him back to form and I’m blown away that he was a throw-in within the Kawhi trade. He’s hitting a career best 44.6 percent from 3 so far and there are few shots I’m currently as confident in then a Danny three from the wing in transition. Money.

 

Louis

Definitely, re: Green.

The struggle on the defensive glass remains a thing I didn’t expect, and can’t fully explain.

 

Matt

In our pre-season round table I picked rebounding as my biggest concern, but the level at which they’ve been challenged in that area exceeded my fears.

 

Louis

(Nice flex)

 

Matt

I’m wrong 75 percent of the time so I have to take credit when I’m not.

 

Louis

I thought shooting would be a strength, but as Will mentioned earlier, when CJ and Fred and Lowry all struggle from deep, the team doesn’t look as good. Weird, right?

 

Will

Most of what we have learned is positive. Kyle is buying in, Kawhi is healthy, Danny isn’t a scrub like Spurs fans had us believe, and Pascal is breaking out. The biggest concern is the bench and their 3-point shooting, which have both taken a step back despite better talent.

 

Louis

And as we’ve sort of danced around, both should just get better naturally over time.

 

Matt

*Knocks on wood.

 

Louis

So I guess I already know your answers, but coming off of two lame home losses, how worried are you about the Raps right now? 1 as minimum, 10 as maximum?

 

 

William

2

 

Louis

Why not 1?

 

Matt

Damn, Will beat me to it. I’m at a 2, at least in part because I’m used to having some fear and anxiety when it comes to my sports fandom.

 

Louis

Pavlov’s abused dog?

 

Matt

I hate how true that feels to me…

 

Will

It’s not at 1 because injuries are piling up, and I’m concerned what that does for Kawhi and Kyle’s workload.

 

Louis

I’d say 2 as well, maybe 3, because JV really hasn’t been great.

 

Matt

Be careful, Louis…the hive comes for us all eventually.

 

Louis

I mean, Will basically dumped on the guy before we even started!

Any last words then, anyone?

A joke perhaps?

A pertinent quote?

Some slander?

 

Will

May we all be as petty towards our ex’s as Dwane Casey.

While still being called classy for it.