Ed’s Note: Stephen R. Burns is a novelist, blogger and (soon to be) podcaster. A lifelong sports enthusiast, he’s coached basketball at a variety of levels for over fifteen years.
There’s a saying in Toronto that there are only two seasons, construction and winter. I’ve come to doubt that. Even in the winter I can hear the noise from whatever construction is being done below, carried up twenty floors, and as loud as if my condo was five feet away.
When it comes to sports, we talk about noise in small sample sizes. As in, “there’s too much noise here to know if this is true or just a blip.” For example, someone averaging ten points above their career average or suddenly finding a way to shoot free throws. (I see you DeAndre Jordan)
And then there’s the “noise” of team results. Analytics weigh so heavily now that a team’s record almost seems like an afterthought (this is mostly a good thing, by the way). A team can get off to an unexpectedly hot start and we debate it. What’s the point differential? Who have they played? Were those other teams at full strength or on a back-to-back?
All of it is valid. An attempt to find something true, a predictor on what will happen. And yet, it’s like a guy walking into a dance club looking for a hot blonde in a miniskirt. She’s there, dude. You’ll see “her,” or someone who looks like her, and if you’ve made up your mind that she’s the one you want, regardless of whether you have anything in common, than it doesn’t matter does it?
I’m not saying analytics do not matter. They do. A lot. Teams like Houston (and the Bucks this year) have shown, they can lead to great things. (Golden State is just great, so…) Every team has responded to the analytically determined “position-less” nature of the modern NBA. And among those aspiring to a championship, Toronto has done it as well as anyone. OG. Siakim. Wright. Green. Kawhi.
For Toronto, it’s a long list, and unfathomably long bench. A bench so good we’ve forgotten just HOW good.
Any Raptors’ fan knows about the “Bench Mob” from a year ago and how they were deployed, largely as a five man unit. They crushed other second units. But in the playoffs, when things change and the bench gets shortened, they were less effective. Any playoff sample size is going to be small, and it will carry a lot of “noise” with it, but if the eye test mattered at all, Ujiri decided that three years of futility was enough.
Coming into this season, the expectations were unspeakably high for the Raptors. They added a superstar in exchange for an all-star, and added the ideal 3 and D man in Danny Green. Raptor fans, despite the “rental” tag on Kawhi, perhaps for the first time, envisioned a Finals appearance as a real possibility. And maybe, just maybe, if Golden State suffered an injury or fell apart to infighting, a championship was on the table.
It was a big dream, lit by the light of five straight fifty win seasons, including a franchise record fifty nine a year ago. This 2018 team, on paper, was even better. Even with a new head coach and the integration of new pieces.
A Great Start, And Then…
The first thirteen games started like Disney movie. Twelve wins and only one stinker against the Bucks when they sat Kawhi. And all while Boston and Philly struggled, the two teams most experts had picked to come out of the East over Toronto. It was all going so smoothly, and then… noise.
Three straight losses. Some questionable coaching decisions. And two key players, Van Vleet and Lowry, seemingly forgetting how to shoot.
The Disney movie was suddenly over, and Raptor fans on social media were worried. The new coach wasn’t ready. Lowry was banged up. Kawhi was great… until he had a chance to win the game.
Ignore the Noise
I had a coach once tell me that you weren’t who you were until you weren’t.
We don’t know who the Raptors are, because despite the small sample size, they’ve yet to play a complete game. Fans fret about this, but as a coach, this is a good thing. Untapped potential is always good, especially in November. Injuries have played a huge role in this, along with sitting Kawhi on back to backs. So whatever results we see, whatever analytics and game stats we can pull early in the season, are filled with, you guessed it, noise.
Lose three in a row and the noise increases. (According to ESPN, in the Raptors three game losing streak, they sported the 3rd least efficient defense in the league, yet ranked second in opponent shot quality. That’s luck. Bad luck.) Win five in a row and the same happens.
What we do know is that even after a bad week the Raptors have the best record in the association. Despite the injuries, despite the poor starts, particularly from FVV but also Miles. And despite the addition of a brand new NBA head coach.
Through it all, they lead the way.
Expectations can be so ridiculous that we forget when we get to witness a great team. Whether they win it all in May and June is the benchmark, but understand what you’re seeing. The Raptors are deeper than any team in the league, and to this point, better.
It’s no guarantee, obviously. Golden State is Golden State, however many times KD fights Green. Boston hasn’t figured it out, but they will. Philly added Butler. But there’s noise and then there’s NOISE. Don’t let it distract you from what you’re watching, and make sure you enjoy it. Small sample size or not, the really good teams don’t come around that often.
And the ones that can be great, like this Raptors team, has never happened. Not in this city. They’re going to lose games they shouldn’t. All teams do (despite their 37-2 record last year against teams under .500) But they’re probably good for 60 wins and a shot at gold.
So don’t let the noise get to you. Close the window, put wood on the fireplace and turn on the game. Sometimes the cold will get you, sometimes the noise will be overwhelming. But make no mistake. Winter is here.
