Pre-game news and notes: What’s in a curse, really?

Ahh, the game one curse. I have nothing valuable to contribute on that front. No analysis. No understanding of why the Toronto Raptors as a franchise are now 2-14 in historical playoff game ones. It’s weird, and it’s awful, and here’s another game one for Toronto. Let’s dive in headfirst, because how else should we approach such an event?

Every day between Raptors’ games feels like a twisted mile. Does time between games feel longer after wins or losses? It’s tough to say, but all that misery and delay is finally behind us, at least for a few hours. After a dominant showing the first round, Toronto is facing their next vict- err, opponent: the Philadelphia 76ers. We at RR have already done a huge amount of work prepping the series, so before I get into the actual news and notes, here’s a list of resources so far:

Talking Raptors chat about the series, but mostly about how good Toronto is.
Series preparatory podcast with Samson and myself.
Coop turns his eye towards Philly’s half-court offensive sets, early offense, and out of bounds plays.
Adam McQueen dives into some specific matchups in the series, namely Kawhi-Simmons and Gasol-Embiid.
My general (and far too wordy) deep dive on the series.
The roundtable from as many RR writers as possible discussing five hot topics.

With all that done, here’s a good snapshot of the vibe around the Scotiabank Center ahead of the game.

“Whatever happened before really doesn’t happen a whole lot,” said Nick Nurse before another fateful game one. Really, what are curses anyway?

“I take that (game one) stat, fact, and I don’t even care about it. I really mean that. It’s not coach speak… They’ve got a new coach, they’ve got a new team… (Toronto’s game one record) makes good content, but from a contextual standpoint, I don’t even care,” said Brown in dismissing the topic.

Both coaches had tons of complements for the other side’s squad ahead of the game. Nurse complemented Embiid, Brett Brown complemented Toronto’s transition game, versatility, defense, scoring, on and on. Brown was very kind to Toronto ahead of the game. The point is these teams respect each other.

Lot of people discussing matchups elsewhere, so here’s my two cents, which I shared on Samson’s pod. There are all sorts of variations that Toronto can use, curve balls, funky defenses. They almost certainly won’t start in weird cross-matches. You open with your fast ball and at least see if the other guy can hit it. So Toronto will probably have Green on Butler, Lowry on Redick, Leonard on Simmons, Siakam on Harris, and Gasol on Embiid. Philadelphia will have everyone guard his position. Both teams will start simple and get more complex from there.

Both teams have a lot of respect for one another, so there hasn’t been any headline-grabbing revelations so far. Basically, nothing left but to start this thing. More updates and analysis once the series actually starts.

Toronto Injury Updates

Kyle Lowry (finger) dislocated his left finger in the first half of game five against the Magic, but he will be playing, of course. OG Anunoby (appendectomy) remains out, and he doesn’t have a timetable for his return. Chris Boucher (back spasms) is questionable.

PG: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Jeremy Lin

SG: Danny Green, Patrick McCaw, Jodie Meeks

SF: Kawhi Leonard, Norman Powell, Malcolm Miller

PF: Pascal Siakam

C: Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Eric Moreland

Philadelphia Injury Updates

This will be one of the most important sections of the series, as far as pre-game notes go. Philly’s injuries will matter a whole lot, and it’s mixed for the Sixers to start the series. On the plus side, Joel Embiid (left knee soreness) isn’t even listed on the injury report, and his activity improved dramatically as the first round went on. Philadelphia will need his full mobility on the defensive end, so Toronto will look to test him on the perimeter. Embiid isn’t expecting his knee to magically have healed since the end of the first round: “It’s still trying to get better but that’s an issue that’s going to be there all playoffs until I get some time to get some rest and work on it. But we did a good job managing it. I only averaged about 24 minutes last series so this one I’m definitely going to need way more than that,” he said at shootaround today.

Mike Scott (right heel, plantar fasciitis) is out for this one, and he’s even in a walking boot. Don’t expect him coming back soon. He is Philadelphia’s most important bench player as a stretch big who can downsize and play center for short stretches. He is also a noted Raptor killer. With Scott gone, any of Ennis, Smith, Simmons, Korkmaz, or Bolden could see a few minutes as the backup power forward. My guess, though, is that Butler and Simmons sop up those extra minutes, as Leonard has done for Toronto.

PG: Ben Simmons, TJ McConnell

SG: JJ Redick, James Ennis, Furkan Korkmaz

SF: Jimmy Butler, Jonathon Simmons

PF: Tobias Harris, Zhaire Smith

C: Joel Embiid, Boban Marjanovic, Jonah Bolden, Amir Johnson, Greg Monroe

Rotation notes

We don’t have answers yet – obviously, the series hasn’t started – but there are questions ahead of game one. Of course, we know the answers to the big questions. We know the starters. We know which bench players – VanVleet, Ibaka, Powell – are fully trusted. We don’t know the minute adjustments Toronto will make against Philadelphia rather than Orlando, so let’s verbalize those questions.

How will Toronto close the first quarter? Against Orlando, the Raps ran a VanVleet-Meeks-Powell backcourt alongside Siakam and Ibaka. That’s not ideal. Philadelphia, on the other hand, used a Simmons-Redick-Ennis-Scott-Embiid rotation (three starters) to end some first quarters against Brooklyn. Though Scott won’t be available, it’s clear that Philadelphia valued those late-first minutes more than Toronto in their respective first rounds. To end the third quarter, Toronto replace Meeks with Green, which improves the lineup dramatically. That’s a reasonable possibility against Philadelphia that would solve the problem, so pay attention to whether Toronto uses VanVleet-Meeks-Powell in game one or not.
- Nurse said before game one that he really enjoyed his rotations in the first series, but he recognizes the challenge that Philadelphia’s staggering offers. He may try having an extra starter on the floor in those late-first/third, early-second/fourth minutes. That seems non-committal, but it actually offers a good window into Nurse’s calculus between playing to his own strengths and adjusting to other teams. We’ll find out where he lands in game one, but also going forward, because it will surely change over the course of the series.
Outside of game one against Orlando, Nurse only used Leonard as the backup power forward. The most-used lineup, Lowry-VanVleet-Powell-Leonard-Ibaka, played in four games and finished with a 53.5 net rating. That tiny lineup is undersized at all five positions, but they dominated. They won’t be as dominant against Philly, but having a net rating in the plus whenever Siakam sits would be a huge positive.
- On the whole, Leonard was pretty, pretty bad throughout the regular season in bench lineups. In regular season lineups with Leonard but without Siakam or Green, the Raptors were outscored by 81 points over 204 minutes. Not great. Him thriving alongside Lowry and the bench opens up fantastic rotation options for Toronto.
Also, who will play on the bench for Philadelphia? Scott will be unavailable. Marjanovic will get torched on defense. Here’s a quote from my deep dive:
- “Ibaka or Gasol will pound jumpers onto head like they’re pounding… books into his mouth? I’m not sure, John Wick 3 hasn’t come out yet. Siakam only shot 57 percent at the rim against Orlando – after clearing a clean 71 percent in the regular season – because of the length and rim protection of Jonathan Isaac, among others. Siakam probably wouldn’t ever miss again if Marjanovic was the second line of defense against him.”
- That leaves James Ennis and TJ McConnell as the only trustworthy bench players (and really McConnell is a stretch there.) It’s probable that Furkan Korkmaz gets some time, and he’s a rangy wing with some skill, but he’s not ready for this stage. Toronto needs to pounce on Philadelphia whenever their starters aren’t in the game.
Just to continue with the bench theme, both teams, despite winning their first-round series by convincing 4-1 tallies, were outscored in their total non-starter minutes. The bench and transitional minutes could swing this one.

Assorted

Brett Brown with the best quote pre-game, saying “I don’t coach afraid.”
- He was asked if Philly should punt their offensive rebounding to limit Toronto’s transition game, and Brown responded with a surprisingly open look into his thought process. The Sixers are not going to go away from their strengths.
A new, all Toronto-focused Game of Zones. Probably my favourite episode yet. I laughed, I cried, I yearned for more. It’s good television.
Jordan Loyd is ineligible to play in the playoffs because of his G-League two-way contract. That didn’t stop the Raptors from giving him some love in game one.
Game 1 whiteout. pic.twitter.com/bzH3RC2ZLo
— Josh Lewenberg (@JLew1050) April 27, 2019
Referee crew tonight is Ken Mauer, Kane Fitzgerald, and Nick Buchert.