Maybe it was the 15-4 start that raised the expectations for the 2019-20 Raptors. Maybe it was the fact that their hot start came in spite of injuries to Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka and one of the toughest early schedules in the league. Maybe it had to do with Pascal Siakam making the toughest jump in the NBA, from a really good complimentary-player to an efficient No. 1 option on a good team.
However it happened, it happened. As the Raptors continued winning games, and only the Milwaukee Bucks separated themselves as the clear favourite in the Eastern Conference, the expectations for the Raptors were raised dramatically. And rightly so.
You don’t start a season winning fifteen of your first nineteen games by fluke. Sure, things need to break right — the Raptors had continuity on their side while most franchises took time to adjust to new rosters and the Raptors led the league in three-point percentage over that stretch despite not having the most talented team — but the Raptors proved that their ceiling is higher than most people originally predicted.
Then they lost four of their last five, and a lot of fans are either failing to remain calm or they are arguing that we need to re-calibrate our expectations after a hot start, saying things like, “this is still a transition year.”
I disagree.
While it’s true that this team has little room for error, a lot of things have gone wrong at the same time for the Raptors, which will naturally lead to losses, especially when you’re playing the toughest stretch in your schedule.
Lowry and Ibaka have both shot the ball terribly since coming back from injury on December 3rd and December 1st, respectively. Lowry is shooting just 28.6 percent from the field and is a -4.2 while Ibaka is shooting 31.8 percent and is a -6.3. In fact, Ibaka has been plain old bad on both sides of the floor since returning from injury, but he is still averaging 21.1 minutes per game as head coach Nick Nurse tries to help him rediscover his early-season form.
only rotation player with a positive plus-minus since the raptors started slumping has been marc gasol. also, those field goal percentages for kyle and serge 🤐 pic.twitter.com/oUOszDokIq
— William Lou (@william_lou) December 12, 2019
Ibaka has the highest ceiling of any Raptors center outside of Marc Gasol, but if he doesn’t rediscover his form soon, Nurse has other options. Either Ibaka starts playing better, or Nurse can look to Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Chris Boucher to take some of his minutes, two players who have seen their opportunities reduced since Ibaka came back from injury but were playing well beforehand. The bench has been really bad since Ibaka’s return, and as Blake Murphy wrote, “The trio of Davis, Hollis-Jefferson and Boucher owned a plus-11.7 net rating in 136 minutes together. It’s worth finding a way to keep them all involved, even if that means a short-term downtick in Ibaka’s usage.”
Lowry, on the other hand, had this to say about his play: “I’ve had two good games and the rest have been shit, to be honest. Once I get back to where I was at the beginning of the season it’ll be great, but right now I’m just trying to work my way back. Right now, I’m nowhere near where I want to and need to be.”
VanVleet has been injured, and Lowry was injured before him, meaning the teams’ only two real point guards have only played nine full games together (respect to Terrance Davis, but he is a rookie and Nurse justifiably doesn’t trust him to run the offense alone). You’re not going to be able to sustain success with one real point guard in the rotation, but that will change when VanVleet returns and the Raptors can have an elite point guard on the floor at all times.
Siakam has hit a wall. After starting the season averaging 26/8/4 on 47/39/81 shooting in his first 19 games, defenses have begun to do a better job game-planning for Siakam as the No. 1 option and he has had trouble adjusting to aggressive defensive schemes. In his past five games, Siakam is averaging 20.2 points on 40/21/85 shooting.
It will take time for Siakam to adjust, but the 25-year-old has handled adversity every time it has come his way during his professional career, and I would bet on him learning how to play against aggressive defensive schemes sooner or later. He is too good not to, and his underrated playmaking ability will help him make the right reads once the game starts to slow down for him.
If we go by the same philosophy the Raptors went by last season — and there is no reason not to — the 82 regular-season games are practise for the playoffs, and the Raptors want to peak then, not now (like the Bucks are). A lot has to change for the Raptors to hit that peak, but we saw early on that the Raptors have another gear to hit.
Now look at the positives this season: OG Anunoby, Norman Powell, VanVleet, and Gasol have all been exceptional, taking real steps forward and doing an admirable job filling the shoes of Leonard and Danny Green on both ends of the floor.
Despite hitting a wall of late, Siakam proved he is at the very least All-NBA worthy, and by making that leap from really good player to superstar, Siakam has raised the Raptors ceiling remarkably. It has become clear that you need a superstar to win in this league, and the Raptors have one surrounded by a cast of really, really good players with playoff experience. How many teams in the East can say the same?
The Raptors are still one piece away from being real title contenders, but so are the Boston Celtics, the Miami Heat, and the Indiana Pacers (I still don’t know what the Philadelphia 76ers are). Outside of the Bucks, who are arguably worse than last season, the East is wide open. There is no reason for the Raptors to panic two months before the trade deadline and become sellers, because if they figure it out and peak in time for the playoffs, they can be dangerous. Last year was a reminder of how small the margins can be in the playoffs, and if the Raptors can give themselves a chance to win, they can win.
Nick Nurse is a Coach of the Year candidate, and I’d bet on him figuring it out. Their offense isn’t going to rank dead last in the league as it has over the last five games (yes, even worse than the New York Knicks). My colleagues Louis Zatzman and Samson Folk did a great job outlining some of the Raptors offensive struggles here.
Their defense, which ranks fifth in the league (103.3), still has another gear to hit.
The Raptors are still really good. It’s fair to be skeptical because they have had trouble against the leagues’ best teams of late, but let’s at least acknowledge all the things that have gone wrong for the Raptors over this last stretch in which four of their eight losses have come.
As Torontonian sports fans, we can get pessimistic about our teams a little too quickly.
As Masai Ujiri said, “Believe in this city. Believe in yourselves.”
