Fit, in the NBA, matters almost as much as ability. For the majority of players in the league, the context of opportunity defines the difference between a productive role player and a journeyman one step from the G League. For OG Anunoby, like so many of his peers, context is everything.
All year, Nick Nurse has trumpeted the need to keep OG Anunoby involved. It’s difficult sometimes. Anunoby has a usage rate on the season of 14.6, higher only than Pat McCaw and Marc Gasol among rotation Raptors. Anunoby can drift to the fringes of the floor, at least on the offensive end. But Anunoby’s defense, with the highest ceiling of any Raptor because of his ability to annihilate virtually any wing scorer in isolation, is so critical to Toronto that he almost needs to be on the floor as much as possible. Occasionally, Anunoby’s offensive involvement has been so minimal that Nurse is forced to close games with Norman Powell. But if Anunoby can find a way to score consistently, to threaten defenses, to find ways to fit on offense, his defense can be unlocked towards the ends of games.
That’s the context that Nurse and the Raptors need to find.
On March 1, OG Anunoby recorded 32 points, seven rebounds, three assists, and seven steals. This game directly followed a six-steal effort, and it directly preceded an 11-point, nine-rebound effort in which he was again one of Toronto’s most important players. Why? What changed?
For one, Anunoby has had more certain playing time and touches with both centers, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol, as well as one initiating guard, Fred VanVleet missing time with injury in all three games. That meant Anunoby played his usual wing minutes, as well as time at center, while even initiating like a guard here and there. He has averaged 39 minutes per game over the three-game stretch. More than that, over the last three, Anunoby has averaged 49.0 touches per game, while that average was stuck at 33.9 for every game until the last three. Anunoby has doubled his paint touches and nearly doubled his points per paint touches. It’s not just playing more minutes; Anunoby has substantively added more on the floor on a per-minute basis.
Interestingly, Anunoby’s improvement has not come as a driver. That’s where I expected his next step to come. We’ve known this year that Anunoby’s finishing has been mostly great. The problem is that he doesn’t drive all too often, and he really hasn’t shown too much of an ability to beat a defense that isn’t already in rotation. Over the last three games, his driving frequency has jumped up, but he’s finished less than 30 percent of his drives when he attempts a shot. Without extra spacing on the floor, and without VanVleet to break down defenses, Anunoby is faced with fewer rotating defenses, so many of his drives have ended in wild shots when he draws the help.
So from where have Anunoby’s improvements come? Not really from behind the arc, either, where he’s been shooting well but not too much better than his season average.
Instead, the burst has resulted from a mish-mash of areas. Anunoby has chipped in on the offensive glass, scoring six points in put-backs over the three games. He’s cut well, too, as always. As far as creating individual scoring, he shot three-of-four out of the post, showing off some nifty, if awkward, footwork to create open looks at the rim.
Mostly the extra points have come from Anunoby’s ability to score in transition. Those 14 steals over the past three games? Yes, unsustainable, but they’ve also led to 16 points off of turnovers for Anunoby, many of which have been uncontested dunks. Anunoby has quickly become a specialist of the pick-six in basketball.
All of the steps forward for Anunoby combine to show a glimpse of what he can become. Over the last three games, when the Raptors needed Anunoby most, he has delivered. He’s averaged 19.7 points per game on blazing 55/40/90 shooting splits. Of course, his shooting has been hot, but the point is that hot shooting is far from the only thing conspiring for Anunoby’s surge; this is not a hot streak that will end with Anunoby coming back down to earth when he misses a few jumpers. He’s been integral in Toronto staying afloat during all of the injuries. Over the last three games, Anunoby has the team’s fourth-highest net rating, and it’s been positive despite the team’s disappointing 1-2 record. The scoring has been there. With no centers, Anunoby has led the team in rebounding, averaging 8.3 per game, blocking out monsters like Nikola Jokic and Deandre Ayton.
All of this has allowed Anunoby’s defense to thrive. His offense raises the floor of the team, but his defense raises the ceiling. His defense is the reason he’s on the floor, and he’s done a great job making his performances visible. Over the last three games, nba matchup data has Anunoby holding Jokic, Ayton, and Bismack Biyombo to a combined zero-of-six shooting; Anunoby is fully equipped to guard anyone on any opposing team, from point guards to centers, and he’s proved that over the past week. He has such a low center of gravity, and such core strength, that even the biggest centers have trouble moving him backwards. In fact, when he does guard centers, he gets so many steals when he overplays passing lanes that such configurations spark Toronto’s transition game. Over the 671 possession Anunoby has been on the court without Marc Gasol or Serge Ibaka, Toronto has forced opponents into a 17.8 percent turnover rate, which is 96th percentile league-wide.
Anunoby is built to be a wing stopper, where his length can bother shots and force turnovers, and his strength allows him to hold his ground in isolation or the post. He can use those same advantages against any position, but they’re best leveraged against wing scorers. Still, Anunoby is changeable. That he has adapted and thrived while playing center is important for Toronto. For too long, Anunoby only thrived in the specific context of 3-D wing. When he got open shots and made them, that was enough for him to stay on the court. Now, Anunoby is giving far more. He can score in the post, help on the defensive glass, spark the transition game, and even crash the offensive glass. On their own, each of those skills are minor. Together, they paint an impressive picture of a young player on the come up.
Anunoby is not taking the road to stardom that is most traveled. He is not expanding his off-the-dribble game, learning to launch pull-up triples and beat opponents to the rim. But he is expanding the frame of contexts within which he can succeed. For the Toronto Raptors, in 2020, that’s probably more important than him becoming a ball-dominant scorer. The rest can come later. After all, Anunoby is only 22 years old. But for now, he is finding more and more ways to stay on the court, and he’s finding more and more ways to succeed while he’s there. He’s learned to raise the team’s ceiling on one end without limiting its floor on the other. That bodes well for both his and the team’s interlocked futures.
