In the days and weeks following the attack on Pearl Harbor, the United States feared an invasion of the mainland. Local governments, fearing aircraft carriers lurking off-shore, imposed blackouts in Juneau, Oakland, Seattle, and elsewhere. The residents of Seattle were so concerned that a mob of a few thousand smashed the plate-glass windows of 26 businesses with lights undimmed. The United States military stationed 500 soldiers at Walt Disney studios to protect Hollywood. Warnings of an impending full-scale invasion proliferated. Citizens laid plans, and the sale of personal bomb shelters sky-rocketed. Tension froth and climaxed on the morning of February 25. A stray weather balloon — or perhaps nothing at all, depending on reports — sparked panic over the city of Los Angeles. Air raid sirens cried. Nervous soldiers strafed the sky for over an hour, and when the smoke cleared, a few houses had been destroyed, and a few people had died of heart attacks, but that was all. Americans had spent weeks planning and panicking, but the much feared never happened. No attack. And due to the planning and worrying, the people of Los Angeles suffered.
The point, of course, is that committing oneself to a plan can sometimes have problematic and unforeseen consequences. Path dependency, and then not walking down that road, can result in shadow consequences. Or put another way: when you put all your eggs into one basket, and the basket breaks, then you don’t have any eggs.
That could have been where the Toronto Raptors found themselves in the present. No heart attacks or friendly fire, but with their hard-fought planning laid to waste around them. In this case, the plan for the Toronto Raptors wasn’t defending an entire coast in the face of ostensibly certain invasion, but instead the signing of two-time-MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. That dream is dead. Antetokounmpo re-signed in Milwaukee, offering the Bucks a much-needed reprieve from years of strife.
But such a reprieve is unfortunate for Toronto, as the Raptors have been planning for the 2020-21 off-season for several years. At first it was a whisper that Antetokounmpo might have interest in Toronto, then a wink-wink secret between the diehard, and finally an open acknowledgement when Masai Ujiri spoke after this season about the need for cap space in the 2021 off-season. Toronto spent years structuring its contracts to revolve around the pending availability of Antetokounmpo. The contracts of Kyle Lowry, Pat McCaw, and Stanley Johnson expire after this season. Norman Powell has a player option, likely to be declined given his strong play. Fred VanVleet’s new extension is set to dip to its lowest year during the whole contract, giving Toronto as much wiggle room as possible. None of the contracts Toronto gave this off-season, to Chris Boucher, Aron Baynes, Alex Len, or DeAndre’ Bembry, contain guaranteed money beyond this season. The Raptors even refused to offer long-term contracts to Serge Ibaka or Marc Gasol, losing both in the process, so as to preserve future flexibility. The foundations of Toronto’s hunt were deep and strong.
Now Toronto will not get a chance to woo the reigning MVP, at least not for years. As they say, men plan and God laughs. The future wherein Toronto signs Antetokounmpo, the future star Masai Ujiri identified all the way back in 2013 in trying to draft him, is gone.
The Raptors have already pivoted. Pascal Siakam and VanVleet signed before Antetokounmpo, as they were going to be part of Toronto’s core no matter who else was on the roster. The Raptors were likely going to wait to re-sign Anunoby, so as only to have his cap hold count of $11.8 M against their free space. Now, with a far slimmer crop of available free agents this upcoming off-season, Toronto valued its flexibility far less and its certainties far more. Toronto re-signed OG Anunoby for $72 M over four years. Even though Anunoby managed to wring a player option in the fourth year, the deal is extremely team friendly. If he had waited a year and seen his numbers improve dramatically, he could have been offered tens of millions more by another team. Yet both sides chose the certainties of the present in signing the deal.
Between Siakam, VanVleet, and Anunoby, Toronto will have almost $70 M committed to three players in the first year of all three new deals, which is over half of the team’s payroll. That’s the future for Toronto right there. And with Toronto now unlikely to lure a star free agent, the Raptors have more money to spend on its own players with expiring contract, such as Lowry. Antetokounmpo re-signing in Milwaukee makes it more likely that Lowry re-signs in Toronto, for what it’s worth. Add in Toronto’s team-friendly rookie deals with potential future stars like Malachi Flynn, and it’s clear where Toronto’s future lies.
That’s not so destructive.
When the United States planned for invasion, the ripple effects caused devastation. All over a weather balloon. Toronto’s plans have not resulted in any analogous effects. The Raptors perhaps lost any chances to re-sign their veteran centers, but neither Gasol nor Ibaka featured in the team’s long-term futures regardless. What else did the Raptors lose as a result of their long-term planning? Not much. Masai Ujiri and company always leave space for contingency plans. In this case, that alternate route was the one staring Toronto in the face the whole time: run it back. Shooting for the stars and missing doesn’t change that.
And besides, there are other options; Toronto’s sought-after flexibility can be used in other ways beyond the acquisition of Antetokounmpo. Furthermore, the Raptors have worked in the shadows and won before. When Kawhi Leonard was on the block, Ujiri flipped homegrown DeMar DeRozan for the Spur, winning the championship in the process. The Houston Rockets and James Harden are currently going through a public divorce, and for all the rumors about Harden’s off-court behavior, he is a player the caliber of Leonard. There were questions about Leonard’s drive and health before the trade, too, with some commentators even going so far as to wonder whether he would even cross the border to Canada. Even if the Raptors pass on Harden, or are unable to conjure the winning offer, there will always be other disgruntled stars. The Raptors have built a foundation into which they can slot any winner. Alongside Lowry, VanVleet, Anunoby, and Siakam, any superstar would make the Raptors a favourite. Pretend Karl-Anthony Towns is unhappy in Minnesota? Perhaps Bradley Beal tires of Washington. Or Donovan Mitchell of Utah. On their own, any of those situations is unlikely. But one of them happening? The NBA is always on the move.
Toronto has positioned itself to strike when opportunity arises. They missed on Antetokounmpo, and that hurts after a half decade of building towards him. Plans change, and the Raptors have ensured that such a result wouldn’t blow up in their faces. That’s step one. One future is closed. The next step is finding where to go now. After the Siakam, VanVleet, and Anunoby deals, the path forward seems clear. But we never know what turns may wait in the distance.
