Gameday: Raptors @ 76ers, Dec. 29

0-2 on the season and getting ready to face Joel Embiid with an undersized frontcourt. Oh boy.

A severely shortened offseason for some teams, a very long one for others – the start of the 2020-21 season has been volatile for nearly every fanbase. The 76ers are a team that seemed like a success story after the offseason, re-tooling with a bevy of complementary players around Embiid and Ben Simmons. They have wins under the Knicks and Wizards under their belt, and just lost to the world-beating (and currently undefeated)… Cleveland Cavaliers? Take your grain of salt, because Embiid was out. And matter of fact, take a grain of salt for the Raptors 0-2 start because the top of the league features a 4-way tie between the Cavaliers, Magic, Pacers, and the Hawks.

Don’t get me wrong, there are legitimate criticisms of the Raptors play so far. And if your criticisms are of the play, then hell yeah they’ve got some things to sort out. However, if an 0-2 record has you throwing away all optimism for this season, I hope you glance at the quicksand that the top of the league is built on currently.

So what has gone wrong? Well, the Raptors defense is all out of sorts and they have to try and correct it against Embiid & co. Keeping in mind that a lot of the breakdowns that the Raptors have allowed was the result of overzealous help (and the half-measure rotations that followed) against Zion Williamson and DeMar DeRozan. One might wonder: what does Embiid’s presence dictate from the Raptors defense?

Sans Marc Gasol, I think it’s reasonable to expect the Raptors will put Aron Baynes in single coverage sparingly and send help early and often. Also, expect the Raptors to front aggressively with back line help if the 76ers get an advantageous switch and additionally, they’ll probably tag him on the roll.

Embiid is a prime candidate to send length at because he’s really turnover prone as a passer. He’s harder to straight up swipe the ball from, which is the high ceiling outcome when Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet dig in or double. The Raptors have the scheme to bother him, but only half the personnel to play it out (OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam). A sterling performance from Lowry and VanVleet could turn it around, but it would have to be a really impressive performance on that end. VanVleet jumpstarting transition with a couple steals, Lowry riding the backline of the defense and scaring away lumbering bigs with the prospect of a charge.

Ben Simmons also poses a major threat to the integrity of the Raptors transition defense, which has been lackluster 2 games into the season. Effort goes a long way in that department, though. We’ll see.

Offensively, the Raptors have been incredibly reliant on Lowry’s presence thus far. In the 22 minutes that Lowry has spent off the floor this season, the Raptors are -21.

Lowry’s net rating: +1.2
Pascal: -12.7
OG: -9.4
Fred: -13.7
Matt: -10.2
Chris: -7.2
Baynes: -15.5
Norm: -16.7
Some things never change. KLOE https://t.co/1bfWm90fpT
— Samson Folk (@samfolkk) December 29, 2020

If you’re looking for a deeper dive into what the Raptors have been doing on offense, my guy, my buddy, Louis Zatzman broke down every pick n’ roll the Raptors have run so far this season. That’s 81 plays. You can read it here.

The hope is that the Raptors can come to expect Siakam’s scoring and passing, VanVleet’s scoring and passing, and Lowry’s scoring and passing to occur in the same game. They’ve been missing some and hitting on others, which leaves room for optimism because at least you’re seeing something, and at high levels. But, the Raptors need consistency and they shouldn’t have to lean so hard on their aging (but genius!) point guard for it exclusively. Their is work to be done by VanVleet and Siakam. Also, if Anunoby is a little more potent on and off the ball, that would be nice – but I’m expecting that to come around sooner than later.

Let’s also hope Nurse & co. lean on their bench (particularly Flynn) in this one. The minutes are already shaping up to be quite brutal for the Raptors featured players.

One last funny wrinkle: Danny Green still hasn’t received his championship ring from the Raptors, and he won’t get it tonight. Some day, though.