Gameday: Bucks @ Raptors: Jan 27

There’s a growth chart in my son’s room which he measures himself against every few months but sometimes 14 times a week. Kids are weird. That’s what the Raptors will be doing tonight: measuring how much they’ve grown as a team since the start of the campaign. Games against the Heat and Pacers are practice runs for ones like tonight, where the result lingers for longer. The 10-6 Bucks are tied in the loss column for the best record in the East with Philly and Boston, with the Raptors sitting in 10th. That spot is largely considered a false position given the number of tight ones the Raptors have lost, especially on their travels west. The Bucks did beat the Hawks in their last game but prior to that they failed two significant tests against the Nets and Lakers, leaving them possibly questioning their position. That’s the thing with records – we’d rather believe what we feel about a team than how good they’ve shown to be.

Other than re-upping Giannis the Bucks pulled off the Jrue Holiday trade, netting them improved defense and athleticism at a spot they felt was capping their aspirations. Holiday’s shooting 38% from three, averaging 16 points and has brought a dynamism to their game absent with Bledsoe. Despite Kyle Lowry’s issues of late the point guard play has been solid thanks to Fred VanVleet. VanVleet’s answers to the questions posed by those who balked at his deal have been emphatic. He has improved his three-point shooting, mid-range game, defense, ball-handling and finishing. He remains the Raptors best offensive weapon and creator, which few would have predicted. Well, maybe Louis Zatzman but I can be forgiven for being skeptical of a man who has a secret shrine in his house, deep in the kitchen cabinet on the underside of a shelf. Push the shelf inwards and rotate it at an angle of 23 – no more, no less. You will be witness to a cosmos which shames Pan’s Labyrinth’s labyrinth. Those have dared entered it have not returned. Except Zatzman. He always returns. Each time growing stronger.

Anytime we’re talking defensive backcourt play we have to start with how dribble penetration is handled. Whereas in previous years the Raptors could devise schemes that funnel the ball into their formidable defensive big men, the same strategy doesn’t have the literal or figurative legs to stand on. Combine this with aggressive closeouts which teams are getting accustomed to, the Raptors are offering too many clean paths to the rim. In response, they have used the zone a lot more in recent games, especially pressure zones where the top two guys are actively playing the pass more aggressively instead of sagging back. This has been an effective counter but it hasn’t stopped the overall bleeding. Most recently the Pacers dropping 70 points in the first half while shooting 51%.

The defensive signs are still encouraging as necessity has once again proven to be the mother action, if not invention. Pascal Siakam playing Free Safety by being everywhere yet nowhere was the de facto defensive stance. His absence has correlated with Nick Nurse having more guys play a more contained approach because they can’t cover the ground Siakam can. We often talk about injured players coming back and seeing the game differently because they’ve finally had a chance to purely observe without the anxiety of playing. It’s interesting to think about how a coach might change their perception of the scheme based on the same. Like any human being they learn through inspection and adaption, and inspection takes many forms. He’s not going to re-wire the defense but perhaps a sprinkle or too of something that might have been gathering dust was in order.

Here’s an interesting stat: The Raptors three-point rate (threes as a percentage of all FGAs) last season was 42%. For the Bucks it was 43%. This season the Bucks are at 42% where as the Raptors have climbed to #1 in the league at 48% (they’re shooting 37%, 2% higher). That’s a significant shift in the balance of the offense which is why there’s so much emphasis on three-point shooting this season: the Raptors just take a ton of them and arguably live and die by the three. Though that’s true of many teams, this degree of dependency on three-point shooting is something new. This can be curbed by not taking shots that are unequivocally poor. There’s at least 2-3 shots a game (1-2 usually Norm) that would make even Mike D’Antoni raise an eyebrow. These are indiscretions that need to be cut out but if you insist on taking hail mary thees perhaps they should be taken by Matt Thomas, our best three-point shooter.

Let’s talk Giannis. The Raptors will probably throw a few different looks at him – OG, Watanabe, Johnson, Boucher – but the 30% three-point shot says it’s the zone that’s the main weapon. Giannis has the ability to slither his way between defenders which diminishes the effectiveness of even deep zones played against him. See, he doesn’t drive to the rim. He snakes towards it at a cheetah’s speed with the footing of a mountain goat. There’s much to be said playing man-defense against him what with OG’s speed and size, and Boucher supplying help through shot-contention. The risk is that it leads into situations where you pick up fouls and leave yourself vulnerable to the drive-and-kicks they feed of. Switching through different zone defenses may not win you an entire series as the defense gets used to it, but in a single game it can surprise and lead to short-run profits. But maybe that’s exactly why you don’t play it.

Other than that, I’d like to see Brook Lopez go 0-13 and get decked by Aron Baynes if for no other reason to culminate the return of Baynes to something resembling an NBA player. The man is not just jumping, he’s blocking shots. He’s not just boxing out, he’s getting the rebound. He’s not just moving, he’s rotating. He’s not just shooting, he’s scoring. If the NBA was handing out MIP awards every 2-3 days then Baynes for sure would be one of the 10 nominees. Welcome back, Aron.

We’re going to have live post-game shows immediately after the game with a variety of people. Sub us on YouTube and see you after the whistle.