Unlike previous iterations of the Toronto Raptors — when depth was a defining characteristic of the team, so much so that people questioned the need for so much of it heading into the playoffs — the 2020-21 Raptors are a young team that depth. Outside of Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Norman Powell, Pascal Siakam, Chris Boucher, and to a lesser extent DeAndre’ Bembry, the Raptors don’t have anyone who Nick Nurse trusts to play anything more than a specific, specialist role.
Nevermind that four of the Raptors’ top-seven players are guards and that zero are centers; what’s more disturbing than the imbalance of the roster is that beyond their top-seven, the Raptors really struggle to find consistency from their end-of-rotation pieces. Guys like Terence Davis II, Matt Thomas, Aron Baynes, Stanley Johnson, Paul Watson, and Yuta Watanabe are all one-dimensional players who either succeed offensively or defensively, but rarely both. While it’s promising that Johnson is knocking down threes and Davis is making better decisions than he was earlier this season, it’s a low bar. And the reality is that, when asked to step into bigger roles at times this season, the end-of-rotation players have really struggled.
So far this season, the Raptors’ bench has played teams even, with a net rating of 0.1. But almost all of that offence is being driven by one player: Chris Boucher, who is leading the entire team at +10.7 points per 100 possessions, while the rest of the bench players are all in the negatives when it comes to on/off ratings (besides Davis, who is +1.0).
And while in a normal season playing teams even might be enough from the bench, this is not a normal season. The compact nature of the second half of the schedule, as well as players missing time due to health and safety protocols, means that the Raptors will not always have their best players. So, if the Raptors are going to achieve a coveted top-6 seed in the Eastern Conference and avoid the play-in tournament or the lottery, the bench is going to have to be better.
The second half of the season is more compact than we have ever seen before. The Raptors are scheduled to play eight sets of back-to-backs, and that was before they had one of their first-half games postponed due to health and safety protocols, meaning they could have nine sets of back-to-backs (assuming they don’t run into any more COVID trouble). So far this season, the Raptors are 1-6 on the second night of back-to-backs, which are obviously games that Nurse has no choice but to ride his bench.
Plus, even if the Raptors don’t have any more games delayed, they will likely have more players enter health and safety protocols and/or deal with muscle injuries, which we are seeing an influx of this season due in part to the compact schedule. Additionally, the player(s) who did test positive for COVID-19 recently will need extra time to get back into game shape, so we might not see a fully healthy version of the team for a while.
That means that Toronto’s end-of-bench pieces will have to step up if the Raptors are going to have success in the second half of the season. Nurse simply can’t ride his top-7 like he is used to because he probably won’t have a top-7 every night, and even when he does, they are not going to be well-rested due to the high number of back-to-backs and the compact nature of the schedule. He will have to get more out of his bench pieces, which has been a struggle all season.
It’s not that Davis II, Thomas, Baynes, Johnson, Watson, and Yuta Watanabe are not skilled. Rather, it’s that they are somewhat one-dimensional, and Nurse is yet to find the right mix or settle on a rotation despite being halfway through the season. That’s not entirely his fault: the Raptors have dealt with injuries and COVID protocols, so they haven’t often had a full roster to play with. But the sooner Nurse settles on a clear rotation, the sooner guys will develop chemistry playing with each other and stop making mistakes due to not knowing the tendencies of their teammates. Still, it’s hard to find a good mix when most of the players are so one-dimensional, so Nurse might choose to continue riding the hot hand all season.
The wildcard in the second half of the season — besides the trade deadline, which should see the Raptors at least bring in a more competent center — is Malachi Flynn. Flynn had an excellent showing in the G League bubble, averaging 20.8 points, 5.5 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals 44/41/92 shooting splits with the Raptors 905, and he was originally expected to be a part of the rotation as the third point guard. Flynn profiles as a good two-way player, and while his defence has been better than expected this season, especially at the point of attack, he struggled to read the game at NBA speed and to deal with NBA size offensively. However, if his stunt with the 905 is any indication, he might be able to step into a role with the Raptors’ bench as another ball-handler and playmaker who can create a lot of space with his dribble and get his own buckets, taking some scoring pressure off Boucher.
Otherwise, it will be up to the likes of Johnson, Watanabe, Davis, Watson, and Baynes to step up and provide more consistent play for the shorthanded Raptors. In a season unlike any other, depth could be the difference between a top-6 seed and the lottery.
