With over half of the 2021-22 NBA season played, it would be a fairly safe assumption that judging any team would be a simple process. There are plenty of data and recordings and stories about every player and every team. To judge the Toronto Raptors, for example, you could look at their big-picture numbers. The Raptors are 28-23 (solid!), seventh in the East (fine!), with the 13th-ranked offense (okay!) and 16th-ranked defense (whatever!) in the league. Based on that, it would be easy to pass them over, rate them a middling-or-slightly-better team, and move along to the real contenders. But that would be ignoring the dormant powerhouse that is this Raptors team.
The Raptors are currently riding a five-game winning streak, which is impressive enough on its own. But it’s actually been so much more. The Raptors have faced only the top of the East (the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat) or a team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals (Atlanta Hawks) during this stretch. Oh, and: there have been two separate back-t0o-backs and four overtime periods during those five games.
It’s not just a hot streak — not really. Or, put another way, if it is a hot streak, it’s coming right when Toronto’s players are finally healthy and when Toronto is going through one of the more difficult stretches of its schedule. That timing might portend the Raptors improving dramatically as a team. Beyond the macro, in the micro things that weren’t really working before have become deadly tools for the Raptors.
It was reasonable before the season to expect Toronto’s offense to be difficult to come by. They have lacked shooters, and their three-point attempts correspondingly dropped. Moreover, Fred VanVleet capably replaced Kyle Lowry, but VanVleet’s previous role was harder to fill. Malachi Flynn and Goran Dragic have both, for different reasons, been failures to launch. For the vast majority of the season, the Raptors tried to force its backup point guard minutes to various players, none of whom were able to fit the bill. So in the beginning of the new year, against the New York Knicks on January 2, the Raptors funneled those minutes to … no one. Technically, Chris Boucher checked in from the scorer’s table to replace VanVleet. He joined a unit that featured five players with wingspans over seven feet. Nick Nurse decided that instead of trying to replace VanVleet’s offense, which is impossible with the roster as currently constructed, he would prioritize the other side of the floor and figure it out there.
Over the course of the season, lineups without VanVleet or any other of Toronto’s would-be point guards but with Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes, have broken even. That’s actually quite an achievement, given the Raptors have generally been impoverished on both sides of the floor with VanVleet on the bench, 14.6 points per 100 possessions worse, the 12th-largest differential in the league. They achieved relative success by throwing cascading waves of monster closeouts and rotations at any and every ballhandler, doubling, trapping, and eventually forcing turnovers on a ridiculous portion of possessions. Then they run, attack the glass, and use their size across positions one-through-four to find mismatches and attack them. Finding some equilibrium in minutes VanVleet sits has been critical, and Nurse adopting this new approach has coincided with Toronto’s winning streak.
You know what else helps? Siakam becoming an actual, honest-to-god superstar. He has outplayed Trae Young, DeMar DeRozan, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo during Toronto’s winning streak. When it comes to the playoffs, he’s likely going to be the best player on the floor against any team in the East outside of, perhaps, three. He has sharpened his game in so many areas it’s difficult to list. Still, here goes.
Siakam has primarily become one of the best passers for his position in the league. His assist rate is 95th percentile for his position, and he’s creating all over the court. He is fantastic in every playtype: handling in the pick and roll and feeding rollers or surrounding shooters, screening in the pick and roll and catching on the short roll to pick apart the defense, big-to-big passes, drive and kicks, whatever: you name it, he can create a shot for teammates out of it. His processing speed has improved dramatically, and he’s anticipating defensive strategies behind his primary defender (who basically isn’t there for him at this point) and how to manipulate them.
Siakam has also reached a new level as a scorer. His touch around the rim has returned to elite after a few down years with bad luck on bounce outs. His floaters from three or so feet are automatic, no matter the level of contest or contact. His percentages from every area on the floor have bounced back to match his elite efficiency from 2018-19 (though the frequency of his attempts from different areas has tilted, so his overall effective field goal percentage is down compared to that season), and he’s actually more accurate from zero-to-three feet than he ever has been in his career, shooting 73.3 percent there. He’s hitting 35 percent from deep, able to space the floor on the catch now quite effectively, especially for a center — the position he’s increasingly playing for the Raptors. Siakam is drawing a huge number of double teams in isolation or in the post, top-10 in the league in both cases, due to his increased scoring efficiency, which is opening up the floor for his incredible passing. It’s all working in concert to make him an offensive superstar, capable of creating a high-efficiency look every time he touches the ball. The Raptors haven’t had this since Kawhi Leonard.
His defense, at the same time, has consistently been at the All-Defense team level we’ve seen in flashes in the past from him, as his rim protection, rebounding, closeouts, rotations, etc. have all been brilliant. There are few players indeed who can reach the heights Siakam has made his new normal over the past month.
The VanVleet-Siakam pick and roll has been one of the most efficient two-man combos in the league. The Raptors are using that setup, with Gary Trent jr. and OG Anunoby spacing the floor and Scottie Barnes lurking along the baseline for cuts or tip-ins, to annihilate opponents in the clutch. At the beginning of the year, Toronto’s strengths were offensive rebounding and transition play. The ascension of the VanVleet-Siakam pick and roll has pushed the Raptors to one of the better half-court offensive teams in the league, which simply wasn’t true a few months ago. Since the start of the calendar year, the Raptors have had a top-10 halfcourt offense — a mark they never reached in 2019-20, when they finished with the second-best record in the league.
The rest of the cast of characters is there to support the big two in Siakam and VanVleet. Anunoby has long been an elite defensive stopper with incredible offensive punch, and though this season hasn’t seen his step forward into stardom, he’s as dependable a third option as there is in the league. Clutch, and a fantastic shooter and finisher. Barnes is already a unique quasi-star who perfectly complements Siakam. He has been fantastic at creating advantages without initiating, whether running the floor to seal smaller players in transition, attacking the offensive glass, or cutting, and he’s hitting his triples, besides. Trent has of course been on one of the biggest and most consistent heaters in Raptors’ history — in fact, he tied DeRozan’s record for most consecutive 30-point games at five. As pointed out by Samson Folk, he is a subtly unselfish player; his willingness to stand around, have no plays run for him, and simply fire up (admittedly a lot of) catch-and-shoot jumpers while still locking in on defense is impressive. His defense still has some holes, of course, but he is terrific at forcing turnovers, and he’s great on the ball, especially without screens to navigate. He is a plus defender now, which is a huge and frankly shocking improvement for Toronto.
Chris Boucher has revolutionized his game, exchanging much of the flash of blocks and dunks and threes for solidity on both ends. He’s attacking the offensive glass with a purpose and forcing a boatload of turnovers on the other end. Precious Achiuwa has developed into a switchable defensive stopper. Dalano Banton has popped into the rotation at times to push in transition, throw dimes, and be extremely big for a guard. Ditto for Justin Champagnie, but really just to defend and rebound the heck out of the ball on offense. Maybe Yuta Watanabe will return one day to demonstrate the art of the closeout. Toronto’s rotation is mostly solidified at this point, barring a shakeup at the trade deadline. And reports seem to be that the Raptors are looking to be buyers, hopefully upgrading their bench by adding a scorer.
It’s no coincidence that Toronto’s climb up the standings coincided with its players’ climb out of the hospital ward. Toronto’s starting lineup of VanVleet, Trent, Anunoby, Barnes, and Siakam has only played together in 14 games, and half of them have come since January 21. Add in Boucher and Achiuwa, Toronto’s top seven and likely playoff rotation, and the Raptors have only played 13 games all year with those players available.
They’re 11-2 in those games.
So in future 2021-22 All-NBA team member Siakam and newly minted All Star VanVleet, the Raptors have the top-end talent. In Barnes, Trent, and Anunoby, they have an elite supporting cast, all of whom can add to Toronto’s strengths on both ends of the floor. When healthy, with their new rotation, they have been trouncing opponents. That sounds like a team that’s undoubtedly going to make it to the playoffs. They’re already in seventh in the East, and they’re only 4.5 games out of first. It’s likely, barring injury, that they’ll rise in the standings before the end of the season; they have a relatively easy schedule coming up over the next week.
But what will happen once they make the playoffs?
VanVleet and Siakam have both seen their productivity drop in past playoffs due to specific opposing gameplans. VanVleet struggled against the length of the Philadelphia 76ers in 2018-19, and Siakam struggled against the switchability of the Boston Celtics in 2019-20. (Though, to be fair to Siakam, he was in the midst of a down stretch that likely resulted, in some aspect, from elements off the floor, so it’s hard to say how much of Boston’s actual gameplan limited Siakam versus Siakam limiting himself.) Two of Toronto’s core offensive principles, offensive rebounding and fastbreak buckets, are far more difficult to rely on in the playoffs.
Yet that won’t doom the Raptors in and of itself. VanVleet has added a deeeeep jumper and a midrange game, and he’s become a better finisher all since 2019 specifically in response to some of his playoff struggles. He has counters now. Siakam has improved in practically every area of the game. His midrange jumper is a counter rather than the shot he specifically hunts. And though the Raptors do rely on elements of offense that are simpler to find in the regular season, they also do quite a bit of matchup hunting to get one of their bruising forwards — Siakam, Anunoby, or Barnes — in the post against a guard. That is what lots of playoff possessions come down to anyway, and the Raptors will be able to find that advantage at any time when the three share the floor. No one is as big positions two through four. Not to mention the VanVleet-Siakam pick and roll’s ability to function as a high-frequency, high-efficiency offensive staple around which whole series could feasibly be won. It’s the building block upon which counters and variations can be layered. There should still be offense for Toronto in the playoffs. The defense is almost certain to hold up, given the fact that Toronto has three All-Defense-caliber defenders in VanVleet, Anunoby, and Siakam.
But if the Raptors have the elite talent, the functional ability to survive minutes without the big two on the floor, and an offense that ought to port relatively well to the playoffs, then what’s to stop them? Fair question. Well, there are players in the East who have universally given the Raptors trouble. Jrue Holiday and Giannis Antetokounmpo are outrageously talented and defending champions, and the Raptors would be hard pressed to topple such a machine. Joel Embiid has always won his minutes against the Raptors, even when he shot poorly and had to navigate through complex traps and doubles. Kevin Durant is Kevin Durant, of course.
But the Raptors are competitive with everyone. They have Anunoby on the roster as one of the league’s best (if not the best) at guarding Antetokounmpo and Durant. Nurse has always had a wacky defensive scheme ready for post offenses, and Embiid still has a high turnover rate when facing complex, dynamic defenses. Toronto has resources, plans and backup plans on both ends, and the tools to compete on the chess board that is a playoff series. It won’t be an easy out for anyone, and outside of series against Philadelphia, Brooklyn (if healthy), and Milwaukee, I wouldn’t consider the Raptors to be major underdogs. Right now, the Raptors are set for a first round against the Miami Heat. That’s a winnable series on top of being perhaps the most heart-rending imaginable, featuring the VanVleet-versus-Lowry, master-versus-student bout. Or perhaps the Raptors move up and the Chicago Bulls move down, setting up the DeRozan rematch — again, winnable for Toronto (and heartbreaking). If the Raps see the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round, for example, I’d pick Toronto.
That is a far cry from what the Raptors were last year. It’s still a far cry from what they were before Kawhi Leonard’s brief working vacation with the franchise. The Raptors can play a number of different ways now, with a number of different initiators. They are a moldable and fanatic defensive team when at their best. You can’t set your clock to them winning 50 games, year in and year out, like you could with the Lowry-DeRozan Raptors. Not yet. That will come. But for this season, they could win a series already and a second one if they get a few lucky bounces. They’re not a championship contender yet, but neither will they be an easy out when facing one. It took a down season, a flash tank, but the Raptors are retooled with a solid foundation. Right back where they were before a home run swing connected.
