Turning a New Corner Three

It’s hard to quibble with the concise idiom: it’s a make-or-miss league.

Samson wrote about it in his summary of the Pistons loss on Thursday:

This frames just how difficult it is to win in the NBA without shooting, and how NBA players can’t simply start doing something because it’s what the defense dictates.

We saw it against Brooklyn’s 2-3 zone and in that torturous Orlando loss too. You get the looks. You gotta hit them. You don’t. Shit gets real hard.

Toronto’s literally a mediocre 3-point shooting team (they’re 15th in makes, 13th in percentage). Feels like they’re worse.

They kind of are if you parse it out. OG, Freddy, and Gary are responsible for 63% of those hits.

That’s where a lot of fans squabble over this team and its direction: the need for shooters.

Undoubtedly, having shooters makes almost everything offence easier. But there’s a dearth of shooting in this league – at least, the kind who can genuinely hold their own on D, an imperative in Masai/Nurse’s regime. Matt Thomas nor Jodie Meeks were/are/will ever be the answer.

Management and coaching staff have chosen another path. As we all know.

Hence, for us stalwart zealots praising Masai’s venture into the 6’9″ experience, we rejoice in the slightest uptick in three-point accuracy from Raptor forwards.

Of recent, it’s come from two of the less likelier forwards: Precious Achiuwa and Thaddeus Young. In the last five games, they’re 3rd (8) and 4th (6), respectively, on the team in three-pointers made.

I know that’s not saying all that much. Still, we must celebrate.

Improved Shooting

Precious’ turn towards the trey has been a slow progression – something we’ve seen, time and again, with Toronto Raptors prospects.

Up until mid-January, Precious was shooting 23% on 1.3 attempts a game. Putrid. Since then, 45% on 1.7/game. Solid!

The improvement stems from a combination of selection and accuracy. Precious has drastically reduced his above-the-break shots and, instead, focussed on the corner where he is closer to the hoop and, typically, has more time to release – a result of weakside or crosscourt kicks. (For what it’s worth, Precious also took 4 pull-up 3s by mid-January and has taken none since – praise the Lord.)

For someone eager to attack, but lacking the handles, the three-pointer unlocks a multitude of options for Precious and he is taking advantage with a greater level of adeptness.

Watch the sequential progression of scores in the Atlanta game. First, it’s a corner three from an FVV drive & kick.

Then, Onyeka Okongwu goes to help on the Pascal drive and recovers to where he assumes Precious is waiting to hoist, Precious reads that and cuts baseline.

The next bucket isn’t the best defensive response by Atlanta, but Precious feigning the thought of a 3 is enough to Monster Truck the rim.

Precious hesitates at the 3 again and attacks. Only, Okongwu is long enough – guaranteed Masai drools over his potential – to recover and block Precious.

And then, again, this time a full-on pump-fake with a patient finish around the helping Okongwu.

Precious transformed from Bo Outlaw to Dr J for two utterly spectacular games against Brooklyn and Atlanta. The clock struck midnight in Brooklyn Round 2; he flowed versus Detroit and half-ebbed against Orlando. It is to be expected; the vacillation of success will persist.

Still, there’s marked progress and those flashy moments divine what Precious’ future may behold.

For Thad, it’s just kinda hilarious at this point. Until shooting 0-2 on Friday – he had just come back from being sick, so I cut him some slack – he was 6/9 from 3 since becoming a Raptor and 5/8 from the corner.

You shouldn’t be allll that surprised. In seven of his fifteen seasons, Thad took at least 50 3s from the corner and in each of those years he shot at least 30%. In 2018-19, he shot 36% on 67 attempts; in 2019-20, 37% on 95 attempts.

All I’m saying is Thad is obviously not always going to be this accurate, but it’s no anomaly either.

Like Precious, once the three goes, it forces defenders to honour Thad’s accuracy. In turn, Thad can attack slower-footed opponents.

Defeating Man and Zone Coverages

Thad and Precious’ dynamism in the corner is essential to Toronto’s success against both man and zone defences.

In man, Thad and Precious counter cheating, overhelping defenders. They’re both, generally, going to be guarded by the opposing team’s bigger players, like Naz Reid in the previous clip and LaMarcus Aldridge in the following two. Aldridge’s main priority is walling up the paint (prevent Pascal’s penetration and you substantially slow the Toronto Raptors offence altogether).

In the semi-fast break, Pascal runs into five Nets all within 6 feet of each other. Aldridge remains nearby in case Pascal manages to breach the Curry/Mills gates. Pascal only sorta does, but it’s enough to distract Aldridge.

Same here, Danilo Gallinari is watching both Thad and Pascal, hedging towards the greater threat. It’s no heroic close-out; if Gallo had read this, maybe, he wouldn’t have half-skipped his way to Thad.

In a 2-3 zone, the corner is the least guarded and concerned part of the floor. The bottom 3 defenders (the “3” part of the zone), are responsible, fundamentally, for anybody below, or around, the free-throw line extended – with some exceptions.

As a result, the corner is ceded leaving defences vulnerable to the three-point shot or baseline cut.

For example, the middle of the “3” is often responsible for the high-post, leaving the weakside part of the “3” to oversee a whole side of the floor with the corner the least of his worries. You’ll see what I mean below:

Probably because of transition, Anthony Edwards is in the middle part of the bottom “3”. He’s high up, though, because Thad is in the high post. Karl Anthony-Towns and Jaden McDaniels are responsible for the bottom sides. Tricky Thad, he sees Edwards turn his head and dives to the gap in the zone in the low post (note, Chris Boucher, in that corner, keeps KAT honest) – Edwards is supposed to escort or “bump” Thad down the lane. Precious can barely contain his excitement. Look how much space McDaniels has to cover. Precious has a wealth of options, but he’s not even thinking of shooting, you know he’s already dreamt of powerbombing McDaniels. Pascal to Thad, Thad to Precious bing-bang-boom. 2 points.

The sides of the “3” are responsible for any players below, or around, the free-throw line extended all the way to the three-point line. If a team “overloads” either side with an extra player, the defender must choose, leaving one open.

You see in the semi-transition, McDaniels has to worry about Flynn. Naz Reid (the bottom, middle part of the “3”), smartly, remains outside the paint anticipating Precious who is “overloading” that side of the floor. The right play is an overhead fireball to Thad’s chest (Taurean Prince should be all the way over). Naz wasn’t quick enough and Precious was feeling it, so he jacked.

Same here below, Boucher and Precious are overloading the weakside, McDaniels is tagged to Boucher and has his back to Precious who’s just waiting in the wings. KAT is monitoring Precious, but migrates towards the middle as Pascal and OG invade.

Another way to expose the corner is by sealing off one of the sides of the bottom “3”. Watch Pascal ensnare RJ Hampton.

If Toronto can squeeze out a more consistent corner trey from any one of its bazillion power forwards, then they can continue to deploy their bigger lineups without the floor shrinking dramatically. That, of course, won’t alone do it. Not having OG, Fred, or Gary (in spirit) to penetrate or rain 3s from above-the-break renders whatever Thad and Precious do from the corners less impactful.

At full health, though, Thad or Precious threatening defences from the weakside corner gives Pascal time to operate in iso, inflicts more damage from the P&R, and provides OG and Scottie more time to exploit the post.

Consider this also as a proposal for both of these guys to play over Birch, especially, while OG and Freddy are out. Their cutting, athleticism, and ability to hit/attack from the corner gives the Raptors much more [still limited] spacing than playing with a more traditional “big”.

It won’t necessarily be enough, but, at this point, we’ll take what we can get.