PREFACE
Welcome one, welcome all.
This is FIVE THINGS I DIG AND DON’T DIG ABOUT THE TORONTO RAPTORS.
Yes, it is an entire rip off of the one and only Zach Lowe – of whom I idolize profoundly – and William Lou who I also adore. Here, though, you will get observations of opinion, fact, hysteria, joy, ire, and everything else within the vast spectrum of basketball “expert” and basketball fan.
It will be a weekly column, mostly coming out on Fridays.
If you have questions or topics you’d like me to discuss or explore always feel free to email me (adonmoss@gmail.com) or put it in the comments sections.
Love to you all and welcome to another – verrrrry promising – Toronto Raptors season.
1. ONE OF US. ONE OF US. ONE OF US
Shittttt. Pressure’s on. You suckers are paying for this now? L.O.L.
Can I offer you some anti-aging vitamin ointments while we’re at it? All you have to do is sell 5 starter sets to 5 of your friends and you break even. Easy peasy.
[Okay, for you new readers, that was my sassy, sardonic character].
I joke. In fact, whatever that conveyed to you, think the exact opposite. That’s how I feel right now. Supremely honoured and thankful.
I’m a hobbyist bum. I’ve got a good opinion or two. But what the Hell do I care if you like me or not? [Sorry, new readers, that’s my other alter ego, the one with way too much gruff bravado].
No, but seriously, this isn’t about me. The financial commitment you’ve made to this site is about the multitude of other content creators at Raptors Republic you’re now supporting and, exclusively, enjoying.
They’re fiercely smart. Fucking dedicated. Obviousy, underpaid and underrecognized. By investing in RR, you’re investing in them and giving each more time and space [and dollars] to discover themselves and flourish.
And, on that point, my cynic self must reiterate that the whole realm of journalism is under immense amount of unsustainable pressure – just as the restaurant industry once was before it crumbled. The new generation of journalism is gigified, ultra-cannabalistic, and monopolized by few, supremely-powerful players. It’s extremely hard to succeed. RR isn’t alone in trying to be that unique, independent voice providing an alternative way for journalists to succeed. But we’re one of them. So, take solace in the fact that you’re money is fighting the good fight.
Okay, one last thing, before I vomit from all this optimism. I do want to say that RR is extremely unique. The people that run this site don’t make a lick of money keeping this going. The paywall isn’t a money grab, it’s to give unestablished creators an opportunity to hone their craft without having to bar-back at some shitty King street night club taking orders from “Donny” or sling extra vanilla grande frappagrappacuinos at the closest Sloppy Cup or eat chicken liver and Mr. Noodles (a staple of mine once upon a time) for weeks at a time just to get by.
Your money goes directly to them. No one else.
Which is why I am so proud to write for RR [that, and stupid The Athletic said they don’t need someone who just rants and raves aimlessly…stupid, sexy The Athletic].
We all know the endless list of RR alum – Will Lou, Blake Murphy, Eric Koreen, Vivek Jacob, and so on, and so forth. There will be more. They’re here now. And you get them all to yourselves.
2A. No More Cheap Takes
PRAISE THE GODS.
After YEARS(!) of watching bullshit lazy take-fouls to stop, not even a fast break, but the POTENTIAL of a fast break, the NBA has finally banished “Transition Take Fouls”.
The league has glaring product value issues. Transition Take Fouls rank up there as one of the most odious.
NBA games are just too damn slow. They’re fun, but they’re slow. And they’re slow in the wrong way. It’s not like soccer where you can feel the incremental ebbs and flows of momentum, suffering in wait as the thickly repressive uncertainty suffocates you. Then BLAMMO like a ready blackhead that your partner finds on your back unexpectedly, a goal strikes and all that tension is released.
No, NBA ain’t like that. The NBA’s cadence is like when an asshole driver in the lane over accelerates past with an obnoxiously loud flex of their expensive – yet depreciating 😉 – vehicle only to hit the same red light that you do and who cockily, but rather embarrassingly, glances over at you as you slowly pull in beside them. That’s, so often, what the NBA feels like to me.
It’s, sadly, no fault of any particular team or player’s style. It’s like this EVERY GAME.
How often is it mid-4th quarter, games close, and you start to feel the tension build, the intensity rise, the competition flare, and then *TWEET* 30-second time out. Or, TV time out and crud intermission performer [“Everyone, pleaseee welcome the Geriatric Gymnasttsssss”] and for 5 minutes you and 19,000 other fans are wondering what the Hell they’re watching. Or, review of incidental conduct. Or, review of finger going up nostril. Or, review of something that 99% of people watching already know the answer too. TOO MANY REVIEWS.
*UPDATE
EXHIBIT 1,004,318: The fourth quarter of the Boston-Toronto bench battle was SO FUN. Everyone was going crazy, the fans, the bench guys on the floor, the starters on the bench, it was so rare and fun to watch the momentum of the game drastically change. Then, with a minute left 109-108 Boston: Coach’s Challenge.
COACH’S FREAKING CHALLENGE. I’m not going to complain that there shouldn’t be challenges in preseason because I don’t want to delegitimize players’ efforts. But MY GOD did it kill the thrill. My Pops and I were going crazy. A 74 year-old man on a Wednesday night was going crazy at 7 pm in the evening. Let that soak in. And then boom, adrenaline’s ebbed and we’re puddles on the couch.
Brutal.
The NBA denudes itself of so much drama. Which is, and will continue to be, a major problem in the coming years. Baby-boomers are finally going buh-bye and Millennials, Gen Z, and so-on have attention spans the size of Kyrie Irving’s self-awareness. If the NBA doesn’t adapt, it’s at risk of losing a majority of viewership, or, at the very least, failing to attract new audiences.
Transition Take Fouls are one of several culprits contributing to the NBA’s decrepit tempo. They’re one of those ugly, ultra-competitive gamesmanship moves that no one likes or respects, but justifies by saying “they’re playing within the rules of the game”.
A blessed goodbye to this God-awful daemon spawn of basketball tactics
2B. A Win then a Loss
And then, in the same breath, the NBA shits on its own content.
So, unbelievably, dumb.
People love cellies. The NFL learned the hard way. I imagine the NBA will too.
When will old, conservative butt-clenchers stop making all the decisions?
3. A Win for Toronto(?)
On the issue of Transition Take Fouls, Es from The Score made an interesting point saying:
I don’t think there’s tracking data on Transition Take Fouls. It’s hard to figure out if any one team would truly benefit from the rule change more than another. I’ll speculate anyway.
TTFs typically happen during a change in possession where the defence is out of position and/or unwilling to recover. Those situations, mostly, follow defensive rebounds (especially, long rebounds or when too many offensive players crash the boards) and turnovers.
When it comes to Toronto, we know that story too well. They stunk at defensive rebounding (23rd in offensive rebounding percentage allowed) and loved forcing turnovers (first in deflections, first in turnover percentage, first in defensive loose balls recovered, and second in steals).
That doesn’t help us too much. Bad defensive rebounding means less TTFs; a plethora of deflections and steals means more TTFs.
However, when you combine that data, with Toronto’s transition data, you get a bit clearer a picture. Toronto was 2nd in transition frequency last year – 1st off a defensive rebound and 3rd off steals. Thus, a high volume of steals and deflections in combination with a high rate of transition means Toronto is more likely to experience a TTF than other teams.
TTFs also might be more detrimental to Toronto than most. Toronto’s 26th worst half-court offence makes points in transition all the more precious (they’re 4th best in the league). New Orleans was the only other team in the top-seven for transition points per play (7th) and bottom-five for worst half-court offence (27th).
Removing TTFs will provide the Raptors with some unknown increase in transition plays. Which in turn could lead to more scoring opportunities. I admit, this is a bit of a shaky exercise, but I think you catch the drift.
Anyway, it will be interesting to see how referees call TTFs. There’s a lot of grey area. The Toronto-Utah exhibition game in Edmonton had a moment where referees had to deliberate if a foul was a TTF or not – the pause, ironically, created the very delay Take Fouls are supposed to stop. It was determined a common foul…*eyeroll*.
Players – here’s looking at Kyle Lowry and Chris Paul – will figure out ways to appear as though they’re genuinely fouling someone despite it obviously being a take. Remains to be seen how effective the rule change will be.
Regardless, it’s good for the game and should, in theory, be good for the marauding Raptor crew.
4. Love Buckets
New readers, you’ll soon find out that beneath all this gruffness and analytical acumen is a soft, compassionate sucker for cute things in life.
For example, HAVE YOU SEEN ROGER FEDERER and RAFA NADAL’S relationship? OH. MY. GOD. It makes my heart cry and sing all at once.
At Federer’s retirement ceremony they were like Morgan Freeman and Martin Sheen in some geriatric movie where they start as mortal enemies and end as hugging and smiling and crying besties.
That last part was Roger and Rafa at the retirement ceremony.
I mean look at this!
LOL it’s so beautiful.
Anyway, what I’m about to highlight is nowhere near as uproariously endearing. But it still stands out to me all the same.
In Edmonton, at the latter end of the Utah-Raptors preseason game. Josh Jackson – now a five-year veteran – had a breakaway layup after a steal and went full mensch.
Hell of a move by Jackson. I mean, sure, no one woulda thought otherwise if he’d taken the two points. He is, after all, in a camp battle and, I think, still on the outside looking in with organizational bias towards Banton and Champagnie, and Juancho’s proven history, European success, and Hollywood pizzazz. Lou Zatzman makes a strong case to the contrary though.
Regardless, he chose the right path – altruistically and selfishly. Gabe Brown, the recipient of Jackson’s graciousness, was playing in his first NBA game ever. Gabe’s a 3-point sniper. If he’s going to make this team – he won’t – he’s gonna have to go 10-fold Sam Dekker for like the entire preseason. Until the Josh hand-off, Gabe was 0-3.
Josh gifts Gabe the lay-up, Gabe gets fouled, hits the two free throws and, lo’ and behold, 30 seconds later, Gabe cuts up from the corner gets the ball, launches, and hits his first NBA field goal.
Tip of the hat to Josh. I’d love for him to make the team because of how he plays, but also, it seems, because of his willingness to be a good teammate.
*UPDATE
Josh really made a case for himself Wednesday in the barnburner in Boston. He finished a team-high +24, scoring in a number of different ways and leading the bench’s stifling defensive effort. There’s hope for this kind soul yet.
5. America is [Kinda] Catching On
One of the things I love/hate most about being a Toronto Raptors fan is how little attention they get from American media.
This year is no different. Kind of.
In the gambling world, the disrespect remains the same.
Kevin Pelton, on Zach Lowe’s podcast, mentioned that Toronto has hit the over on 8 of the last 10 years of wins projections (I bet one of those under years was in Tampa, a very exceptional year).
*Note to Reader: You can listen to Oren and I discuss the over/unders of every team by division for the upcoming season should you choose.
Any gambling institution will tell you that a bet with 80% certainty is not very good for business. In an ideal gambling dystopia, it’s closer to 50% where money is made on both sides. The consistency of which Toronto has hit the over is simply a poor evaluation of this team and its potential.
We’re seeing the same underestimation again this year. The O/U is 45.5. An utterly absurd projection considering that last year they won 48 games despite significant injuries to their main core, a heavy reliance upon young’uns, and having the worst scoring bench in the league.
Yes, the East is better, but so is Toronto. From an internal development perspective, this year’s team is vastly superior to last’s. Precious and Scottie are likely to make big steps. OG and Gary could also reach another pinnacle. Pascal is starting the season healthy; Freddy hopefully ending it healthy. Chris Boucher got paid. And the bench has an iota more respect with Thad returning and Otto Porter Jr. arriving.
Media, however, have been a bit more savvy.
On the same Lowe podcast, Pelton proclaimed “Bang [Toronto’s] over!”
Zach Lowe concurred “I couldn’t throw my fake loonies and toonies on that one enough. I frankly just don’t understand how it’s 45.5” (48:00).
Finally, THE NBA savant, Bill Simmons (I kid), in a recent podcast that also included Zach Lowe, asked Zach, “Are we sure Toronto [and Denver] shouldn’t be in the One-Seed discussion for the regular season?” (33:30). Zach was flabbergasted by the question, but didn’t hate it.
Now, one-seed is a bit much, and Bill did go on to call Dalano Banton “Danton”, so intimate knowledge of the team might be suspect, but it’s totally novel to have that kind of preseason optimism for a Toronto Raptors team. Even ol’ crusty John Hollinger at The Athletic had them as an easy over at 48.
It’s not all shining praise. The Score has them 15th (rude). Insider.com 14th. The Ringer’s NBA Group Chat, 17th. Marc Stein, 16th. I’m sure there’ll be more insulting Power Rankings in the coming days.
Still, media is catching on. They’re seeing what we’re seeing. And, fuck ya, for the Raptors. They deserve the praise.
Selfishly though, it also kind of sucks. We already knew they’re going to be good. It woulda been fun to take the League by surprise again and get another chance to throw our self-righteousness in their face. I fear it won’t be so this year.
Instead, all we can do is take solace in the financial arbitrage that remains: 45.5 is, as Pelton says, an easy BANG on the over.
Might as well exploit what we got until the big bettors figure it out.