Henry McCarty was old before his time. He lost his parents at 15 and turned to robbery to stay alive. He fled New Mexico Territory still in his teens and joined a gang of outlaws. He was better known as Billy the Kid still as a teen. He fought to stop a sheriff from seizing his employer’s cattle, and the state placed a bounty on his head for his crimes in the battle. He was captured, sentenced to hang, escaped, and captured again. By the time he was shot and killed at 21, McCarty had killed eight men.
Like Billy the Kid before them, the Toronto Raptors may not be old in years, but they are wizened in achievements. Several members of the roster, including on- and off-court leaders Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, and O.G. Anunoby won a championship in 2019. VanVleet and Siakam especially were vital members of that roster. Players like Chris Boucher and Otto Porter jr. — both former members of the Golden State Warriors — are veterans without having turned 30. Boucher battled his way from the G League to the NBA, while Porter was a third-overall draft pick who disappointed in Washington and Chicago before earning a second life as a sharpshooting defender who didn’t try to do too much. Thad Young was a member of the Philadelphia 76ers before The Process.
Yet the Raptors are actually younger than the average NBA team. They roster a variety of players statistically on the upswing towards their primes, including Scottie Barnes (only 21 years old), Christian Koloko (22), Gary Trent jr. (23), Precious Achiuwa (23), Dalano Banton (22), and even Anunoby (25). The Raptors ought to hope that at least two of those players become stars. In the same way that VanVleet and Siakam inherited the franchise from Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan before them, the future leaders of the franchise are likely already on the roster.
So how to judge the early season in terms of development for the youngsters? The Raptors may be only 1-2, but there’s so much more to the early season than simple wins and losses.
Let’s start with the positives. First and foremost: Scottie Barnes. Barnes entered the season after a forgettable preseason, possibly due to a minor injury he suffered late in the offseason. And he left Toronto’s loss to the Miami Heat early after suffering an ankle injury. But in between those three games he showed tangible improvement from last season. His per-36-minute numbers are almost all higher than they were last season, including his efficiency. Barnes has been decisive with the ball, taking space towards the hoop with every dribble until opponents stop him. He’s been deadly in isolation. His ability to create advantages from a standstill has been a massive positive to the offense — his on/off differential on the offensive end leads the Raptors, whereas he was a negative last season.
Oh, and he’s shooting 50 percent from deep — on a sample size that means nothing. More important, he’s been more decisive on the catch, actually taking fewer triples per 36 minutes and driving more effectively. He’s leading the Raptors in efficiency on the drive, shooting a ridiculous 63.6 percent. The floor has been wide open for his jumper, and even though that might not be the cause of his accuracy, they’re likely not completely unrelated.
Barnes’ steps towards stardom continue apace. Unfortunately for the Raptors, he’s the only youngster about whom so unequivocal a statement could be made thus far into 2022-23.
Only 18 seasons in NBA history have been compiled with averages of 18 or more points or game and fewer than 1 assist. Trent is on his way to reaching this dubious mark. His numbers look similar to those of last season, with slightly better accuracy from deep and slightly worse from within the arc, but his assists have more than halved to a lowly 0.7 per game. The man loves to shoot. But with Siakam seeming to have improved on his stardom from last season, and his efficiency up so far this season, it would behoove the Raptors if Trent were slightly more willing to share the rock.
Achiuwa followed two miserable games to start the season with a very strong one against the Heat, outplaying his former mentor in Bam Adebayo. He splashed triples, attacked off the dribble and finished from the short midrange, and rebounded the basketball with strength. Achiuwa remains in the earliest form of his Pokémon evolutionary path. But he’s one of the most athletic players in the league, occasionally displaying the grace of Siakam and the strength of Anunoby. And he has no fear of trying … anything … on the court. He may make strange choices from time to time, but he’s already a crucial component of the present who could become anything in the future. His path to stardom is opaque but certainly conceivable. He can both create advantages and convert them, and at times he has shown improvement on both skills.
Anunoby has had a struggle to start the season. After an inefficient scoring game against the Cleveland Cavaliers to start the season in which he was still a huge positive due to his passing, Anunoby’s scoring efficiency has only dwindled inside the arc. On the negative side, he still loses his balance and opens up the ball to strips and digs far, far too often. But on the plus side, he hits the paint basically at will, which is only true of Siakam (and maybe Jeff Dowtin) on the rest of the roster. In other words, he’s creating advantages consistently without being able to capitalize. The process matters, even if the results are stinky. Add in his knocking down triples at an insane rate, and his as-always brilliant defense, and Anunoby’s certainly not having a terrible season, even if it is slightly disappointing. (But if his ability to reach the paint ever converts into results, Anunoby would more or less be a star within the blink of an eye.)
Banton has faded into the background to start the season despite dominating preseason. He hasn’t been able to turn the corner with the ball in his hands, and the Raptors haven’t helped him by asking him to handle the ball above the break. His decisiveness in the half court and athleticism in the open court from preseason haven’t yet translated. On the plus side, he looks more confident in his jumper and more aware on the defensive end. Koloko hasn’t put up numbers yet this season, but he’s been a menace protecting the rim, has screened fairly well, and has survived on islands as a defender against smaller players. Unlucky whistles and tackles have limited him, but it’s clear that Nurse already trusts him with real minutes.
Billy the Kid’s early exposure to mature themes in his own life didn’t necessarily help him. Sure, countless books and movies have been made in his name, but he was a handsome young corpse far too early to enjoy them. Being young and experienced doesn’t guarantee anything.
For the Raptors, whether experience helps the youth or not remains to be seen. Barnes got a serious taste of the playoffs as a rookie — which doesn’t happen for everyone. Anunoby already has a playoff game winner to his name and would have contributed much more to the championship had it not been for injury. But Barnes’ game continues to grow while Anunoby’s self-creation forays have not yet yielded fruit for the Raptors. Achiuwa remains streaky despite dominating in last year’s playoffs, while Koloko has been consistent if quiet to start the year as a rookie.
At the very least, experience can’t hurt. And the Raptors already have a hierarchy in place, a set structure supported by the twin pillars of Siakam and Anunoby. Everyone develops within the system held up by their prowess. The Raptors are almost sure to reach the playoffs, which means all the youngsters will have even more opportunity to earn valuable, and exclusive, experience in the most important situations. Whether that impacts development remains to be seen, and the path forward is surely more about each individual than any other factor. But even for the players with slow starts to 2022-23, there have been tangible gains in several areas. Lots about which to be excited, if not everything. So far, this season has shown mixed results in terms of the development of the youngsters. That makes sense, given the mixed results of the team overall. When the Raptors start winning, and perhaps start facing less talented competition, expect the growth and impact of the prospects to burgeon along with the team’s fortunes.
