Man, I feel like it’s the offseason.
The Raptors have played twice since last Five Things and won’t suit up until Saturday. As such, this will be a shorter schedule of Five Things, so to speak. It’s Four Things.
Rest for us all, kapiche?
1. O.G. Finish [with Authority]
O.G., O.G., O.G.
He’s all I think about now.
The good and the bad. I just can’t stop watching everything he does. It’s like kicking a stone down the side of a mountain and watching the chaos of its tumble. I have to see where it goes and how it ends up. Each bounce off the next sheer cliff comes with such thrilling unpredictable consequences.
The same for O.G: the raw strength, the offensive persistence, the calm look, the choking defence, the inevitable anticipation, the clutch shooting, the seesawing coordination, and the finish. Ohhhh boy, the finish.
O.G. is currently shooting a career best 70% at the rim (4 feet or less) at the second highest frequency (44% of his shots) of his career. That’s the 83rd and 90th percentile, respectively, for wings. The only other wing in the entire league to accomplish both or better is Jaden McDaniels of the Minnesota Timberwolves who is a bottom rung offensive guy (13.4% usage).
O.G., conversely, with all the injuries of late has been a primary operator (career-high 21% usage). Early in the year, I noted O.G.’s challenges in the lane and rate of blocked attempts (#2). Then, he’d had 5/18 shots blocked within 5 feet or less of the hoop. Now, it’s 17/120 (28% of shots vs 14%) – a much tolerable number.
Much of his newfound success down low has been a combination of choosing rightly when to attack and having greater balance and patience when doing so.
In Brooklyn, on Wednesday, you saw this in both makes and misses.
THIS IS MAGIC.
O.G. recognizes his 20lbs lighter adversary in Nicholas Claxton, crosses him once, and methodically backs him down to the restricted area. Someone have a tutorial with Thaddeus Young?
Similar below, where O.G. gets a switch on to Kyrie Irving. Kyrie and Markieff Morris switch out before O.G. can get the ball. No problem. O.G. knows he’s infinitely quicker (and, probably, sees that Kyrie is the helpside), doesn’t wait a second to think, and rips by Morris. (Note to reader: O.G. coming off an action into elbow or mid post or low post is nuddabudda).
Old O.G. was a straightline stampeder. He’d get to his spots, but recklessly, and find himself in a world of trouble. That still happens, just not as often.
Against Durant, O.G. gathers, pumpfakes, and rises through KD and Joe Harris for an easy two. So often, we would see a play like that and watch as O.G.’s momentum carried him forward slowing his rise or rushing it and getting blocked. In the second clip, you see O.G., FINALLY, use his brute force to dislodge a defender without jackknifing him. O.G. manages to bump, pause, and resume his momentum across his body to the other side of the rim. If he finds that kind of control it’s goody gumdrops.
O.G., ultimately, leaves me thirsty. Quenching for an offensive dominance I believe him capable of. He’s getting to where he wants to go. Sometimes, it’s out of control, but mostly, he’s finding space and just not finishing – particularly, in the non-restricted paint area and short mid-range. O.G.’s poor shooting is also making all of that difficult (28% in mid-range and 32% from three, 14th and 22nd percentiles for wings respectively).
The greatest joy, though is O.G.’s now notorious crams. He’s entered Top 10 Most Wanted for Posterizations by the FBI. Like, almost, once a game, O.G.’s catching someone.
Kevin Durant the latest victim of his serial posterizations.
2. We Should be So Lucky
It’s true. They are.
I know, I’m on a bit of Jack kick these days. But can you blame me?
Jack and Matt are slowly becoming as uniquely entertaining as the TNT crew. I’m not saying they’re at that level cause they’re not. But they create that same effect of feeling like you’re hanging out with them. And laughing at them [at Jack, mostly] as much as you are with them [with Matt, really]
So many of the other broadcasts are empty. They’re fine, there’s just no zest or pop. With Jack, it’s spiked. An intoxicating ramble of nonsense or silliness that few of us can relate to or understand, but still find totally hilarious in the moment.
Case in point was stupid Drake showing up (probably, only because Kevin Durant is in town) and lending his “mink” jacket to Jack. Jack, the classic old, white dude who’s completely disconnected from this generation, from fashion, from Hip Hop, from anything post-1980s really doesn’t hesitate a second to throw Drake’s parka on. Jack wears it for a good amount of time despite probably sweating his ass of because it’s fun, funny, and he loves being in on a laugh.
Look at that joy. Listen to that chuckle.
Jack goes on to ironically compare himself to Drake as “two pop stars” with competing concerts. That’s all about as good as things can get with Drake crashing the party.
Like, maybeeeee Jack doesn’t give the best analysis. That’d be the biggest critique. Otherwise, he’s aging like a peaty scotch and we are so very lucky to have him and Devils representing this team.
3. Koloko Kraze
We’re 18 games into Christian’s Koloko’s career (he and O.G. the only two to play all 18 by the way), so, ya know, let’s not get tooooo hasty.
But, man! Suddenly, Koloko is a ripe candidate for Toronto’s future centre – not to get too hasty or anything.
I, already, talked (#4) a bit about his defensive potential. Koloko’s evolved since – with struggles along the way. Much of his progress has come from his comfort anchoring the defence, reacting, and moving, efficiently, between multiple actions in a sequence.
Koloko has always had a knack for seeing plays develop. Like when he first consumed Patrick Williams’ soul.
It’s one thing to sit weakside and time the at-rim help (not that it’s easy or anything). It’s another to be fully engrossed in one defensive engagement, recover, and then devour more of Patrick Williams soul.
Note what Alvin says. He comes out of double-team on the weakside of the perimeter and b-lines it straight to the strongside block for the rejection.
You see it again below with Koloko challenging the ball all the way up at centre court, retreating, tracking Dejounte Murray and meeting him at the rim.
Against Atlanta, the Trae Young/Clint Capela combo killed Toronto. Time and again off the pick + roll Trae hit a floater or lofted an alley-oop to Capela. Koloko subbing in disarmed the attack – as best he could – by hovering both Trae and Capela.
And while we don’t want to get too hasty, the sample sizes of data are growing and demonstrating Koloko’s positive effect on the Raptors’ defence.
For example, Koloko leads the team in points allowed per 100 possessions at -8.8 (90th percentile amongst bigs) and is first in defensive rating (and net rating) amongst rookies playing more than 15 minutes a game. In dunkandthree’s epm +/- analytics, he’s in the 76th percentile for estimated defensive +/- and 98th percentile for block percentage.
It’s not perfect. There are times Koloko’s out of position getting a bit turned around on rotations, overly aggressive on helpside, or straight beat. What Toronto had before was paltry, though. And Koloko’s development continues at quite a steep trajectory.
Most importantly, a 33rd pick overall saves us from the interminable trade debates over Myles Turner or, worse, Rudy Gobert. Those moves would’ve been costly. Instead, the team remains flexible with much promise ahead.
4. Three DisapPointment
You knew it was inevitable. The same way you know that river card isn’t turning your flush in Texas Hold’em even before the card is flipped [no, my gambling habits are not interfering with my ability to write this column. Stop asking.]
You knew the three-point shooting was going to eventually diminish.
Toronto Raptors up to November 1st (7 games): 8th in the League in three point percentage at 38% on 34 attempts/game and 2nd in the league in catch and shoot threes.
Since (11 games), 29th at 33% on 30 attempts and 28th in catch and shooters.
We saw it coming. Preseason was a precursor. I cautioned against optimism early too.
Part of the woes were due to injury. Pascal’s obviously missed a chunk of time (9 games) since November 1st. Freddy was out 5 games with whatever virus was traipsing the locker room. Gary 3 games. They, along with O.G., make and take the most (other than Flynnagan) on the team.
Hasn’t mattered, though, they’ve all been shite – healthy or not:
O.G.: 15/54 | 28% | Gross
Freddy: 25/67 | 37% | Decent
Scottie: 11/41 | 27% | Regression
Chris Boucher: 9/35 | 26% | Classic
Gary Trent Jr.: 8/41 | 20% | Microwave to Ice Box
The only shining stars are Dalano Banton – just because he’s hitting threes period (10/29 | 35%) – and Malachi Flynnstone (13/25 | 52%).
You could argue with a depleted starting lineup that three-pointers are harder to come by. They are taking fewer attempts, but they’re also just straight missing shots.
Before that November cutoff, the Raptors shot a blazing 45% on 14 wide-open threes/game (second in the league) and a decent 36% on 16 open threes/game (16th). Since, they’re 25th in wide-open threes (34% on 15 attempts) and 28th in open threes (28% on 15 attempts).
So, where do we go from here?
Hard to say.
Could be that sickness and injury and fatigue and too many bench players are contributing to the fall off. With less playmaking, less ideal shots. For example, in those first 7 games Toronto was second in corner threes attempted and 17th in accuracy, now they’re 21st in frequency and last in accuracy.
Or it could be that they’re just not a good three-point shooting team. Last year they finished 21st; they’re currently 26th. This just might be a major averaging out of variance.
Time will tell, but don’t keep your hopes up. You might be disappointed..
