This one might be like a swig of vinegar. Or one of those drunk soccer fan brawls in the metaphorical sense. I expect outrage. I expect quarrels. Bring on the quarrels.
1. Les Rotations, Part Un
Scottie to the bench. Blammo.
How’s them apples?
It’s not as drastic and disparaging as you might think.
It’s not just for Toronto. It’s for Scottie. You’ll see.
It’s not that Toronto can’t be good with Scottie in the starting lineup. They can. In fact, it’s not just Scottie to the bench I’m sending. Off with Gary too (this was already suggested by moi in the preseason.)
Not as punishment. But for balance.
Look at Toronto’s two most used lineups:
1. Freddy, Gary, O.G., Scottie, Pascal | 148 possessions | -7 point differential | 19th percentile in points scored per 100 possessions | 34th percentile in points allowed per 100 possessions
2. Freddy, Gary, O.G., Scottie, Koloko | 111 possessions | -9 point differential | 41st percentile in points scored per 100 possessions | 12th percentile in points allowed per 100 possessions
If you remove Scottie, the Freddy, O.G., Pascal trio with any other two players is +13.4 per 100 possessions in 147 possessions. Their offence a solid 61st percentile and defence a superb 99th percentile. If you remove both Scottie and Gary, Toronto is still a +6.6 per 100 possessions in 60 possessions.
I understand that there’s simply not enough data to prove or disprove anything. We’re merely a quarter ways through. Though, last year in 553 possessions with Scottie off the floor, the Raptors were a +15.5 per 100 possessions. Some evidence to support what we’re seeing again this year.
This also isn’t about Scottie’s talent or the suggestion that he lacks it. I’m not saying sophomore wall. I’m not panicking. (Oren Weisfeld outlined wonderfully why no one should panic and, actually, how Scottie continues to improve; in sum, everything’s just dandy). I’m not trade machining him. I’m not diagnosing him.
I’m just suggesting that, right now, where Scottie is at with his development it might not hurt to try something new. Not forever.
Having five guys who playmake and attack and thrive off one another is the ideal. A terrifying defensive experience for the opposition. Sacramento (2nd in scoring) and New Orleans (4th) being two current examples. Sometimes, though, there’s overlap. To a point that diminishes returns or, at least, inhibits optimization.
Right now, for Toronto, between Pascal [superstar] heliocentricity, Freddy [All-Star] on-ball demands, Gary flambaying, and O.G. bull-in-a-glassware-department-storing, there’s a lot of overlap. And too little room for Scottie to do what Scottie wants to do.
And what Scottie wants to do, is much different than what Scottie used to do. Kind of.
2. Les Rotations, Part Deux
With a newfound set of tight handles and an improved shot, Scottie is dancing more from the outside and colliding less on the inside. Last year, 60% of Scottie’s points came in the paint; this year he gets to the paint two times less per game and scores only 55% of his points from there.
Connected to that, Scottie shot 19% of the team’s free throws last year and was fouled on 11% of his shots; this year he’s shot only 10% of the team’s free throws and fouled on just 5% of his shots – both indicators of less rim aggression.
Scottie’s mid-range diet has decreased too, from 46% frequency to 38% – the majority of that reduction from the short range. Which is too bad because that 8-10 foot range was sweet kettle corn pop for him and so very threatening to a defence. Instead, Scottie’s migrated further out: 21% of his shots last year were three-pointers; now, it’s 30% – albeit at a much better accuracy.
Scottie’s also taking less catch + shooters and heaving more pull-ups. 2021:18% of his shots were jump shots on 38% accuracy; 2022: 30% of his shots are jumpshots on 27% accuracy. Scottie is also dribbling more: this year 47% of his shots occur after 3 or more dribbles (27% of his shots are after 7 dribbles or more) where as last year only 36% occurred after 3 or more dribbles (12% of his shots were after 7+ dribbles). And, finally, as you’d guess, Scottie’s upping his isolation game from 1.8 times per year last year (12% of his possessions) to 3.1 this year (19% of his possessions).
That is all FINE. We want our growing future All-Star to grow and to try out his new tools. To spread those wings and fly, baby. But as he does, as we’ve seen with Precious, it can look discordant or disjointed from other parts of the Raptors offence.
Not always. Sometimes, he’s in his element. Attacking, creating, punishing as an unstoppable force and as a wonderful teammate. Sometimes, though, things are forced. As though, a “his turn, my turn” exchange is taking place. And, other times, when he’s not involved, Scottie can appear disengaged.
(I also acknowledge that Scottie could be dealing with an injury or discomfort which might explain why, in certain moments of the game, Scottie is appearing less active.)
On Wednesday, against New Orleans, it certainly looked like Scottie wasn’t exactly locked in early.
This is Scottie with 11 seconds left on Toronto’s first offensive possession.
I can tell you what happened in the first 13 seconds of the play. Scottie sets a very unintimidating down screen for Freddy and then, at the 17 second mark, rolls to where you still find him 6 seconds later at the beginning of the clip. I get that he’s the corner kick. But one could argue he doesn’t look all that ready for even that. O.G. and Freddy, conversely, on the other side are moving, cutting, relocating.
Scottie on the second.
Takes a moment to hang out of bounds. Jogs back.
Scottie on the third.
Hand-off and back to the corner.
And Scottie on the fourth.
Same corner.
That’s a whollllleeee lot of standing. I know it’s “let’s watch Pascal cook time” and that Scottie was not the only one just watching. Still. Even on that last play, O.G. is howling for the ball, Freddy is sliding as Pascal penetrates. Thad’s waiting to get a drop off or clean up. Scottie’s standing straight up, hands down.
Again, I’m not harshing on Scottie. I celebrated his cutting (Baseline Barnes!{#4}) mere weeks ago. I’m suggesting that maybe he’s being underused – whether he believes that or not is not for me to say – and that there could be more and better ways to get him involved.
Last year, I argued vehemently for more plays involving Scottie – pick and rolls and dribble-hand-offs – because Scottie couldn’t get to where he was best at attacking. This year he can. He can break guys down on the dribble getting to the rim or pulling up or zinging passes cross-court to corner shooters. That style of game, to me, might be better served, in the short term, on the bench.
3. Les Rotations, Part Trois
We already have the proof of concept. It went well!
With Scottie and Gary heading the reserves, the group collectively scored 34 – two points more than the Raptors bench averaged heading into that game – against Cleveland. It felt more natural. Suddenly, Toronto had little dropoff in playmaking with Scottie and Gary coming in fresh and ready to rock. And you also saw right away, Scottie, with some mixture of starters and benchers, shift to a more aggressive, primary role.
Same on Wednesday against New Orleans. Scottie started, but he ended up on the floor with Gary, Koloko, Boucher, and Juancho (who didn’t start). Scottie and Gary were the offensive focal points.
Not the greatest two possessions by Scottie there, but they’re his and no one else’s. That lineup only played 4 possessions and it was bad. Still, there are other machinations to experiment with. Likely, having O.G. in the mix would help some too.
Samson and I toiled with this idea on Twitter.
When you look at O.G., Scottie, Gary, there’s little to go on statistically. Those three + Boucher + Precious/Koloko are +0.4/+23.5 per 100 possessions in only 17 possessions for both. Breaking even with this group would be a victory for Toronto’s bench woes of the past.
One could argue that Toronto should never have Freddy and Pascal off together (the team is -5/100 possessions in 530 possessions when both are off). We have seen how badly that can go. With a fully healthy cast, though, I think it’s worth handing 18-20 minutes to the three” young’uns to strut their stuff.
In doing so, I’ve solved everyone’s problems: the boys get to experiment and run show for a bit and the Raptors nicely spread out their top heavy roster.
4. Rotational Rotations, Parte Quatre
As for alternative starters, Juancho/Otto Porter Jr. and Thad/Precious, with Koloko on the odd occasion, have fit splendidly. (It’s clear that Nick wants to keep Boucher as the sparkplug off the bench.)
Precious as a starter has been discussed plenty already. He with the core makes for a stifling defending 4. The core 3 + Precious are a 97th percentile defence and +72.5 points per 100 possessions this year in only 60 possessions (last year, they were +4.8 in 321 possessions).
While Precious is out, Juancho and Thaddeus are satisfactory. It’s a small sample size and all of it, I believe, against Cleveland, but the 30 possessions of FVV/O.G./Pascal and those two were +3 per 100 possessions. There has yet to be minutes with Otto and the core 3 without Scottie.
There will be times where the Juancho/Thad combo will be too small defensively or too impotent offensively. Thaddeus up against Jonas Valančiūnas and Zion on Wednesday was overwhelmed. If Juancho is missing his three or Thad that fling floater, they can become a bit invisible. Otherwise, they make for good company.
Both Juancho and Thad understand their roles too: defend, pass, cut, shoot when open, rebound, get out of the way. Samson wrote about the connection the two of them have already. They don’t have the need to expand their games. Just play within them.
And they’ve been good at that. Juancho’s shooting 52% on 3 three-pointers a game; he’s also scoring 1.19 points per possession off cuts (28th percentile, but second on the team); and, he’s in the 67th and 97th percentiles in offensive and defensive rebounding percentages respectively. His defence has also been solid (#3).
Thaddeus has demonstrated his value (#1) for some time now. He’s in the 94th percentile for assist to usage ratio and has held his own on defence to the best of his abilities. There will be times where he’s quite overmatched either in size or athleticism. Koloko or Birch can plug those moments.
For such high-usage guys like Pascal (29%), Freddy (22%), and O.G. (22%), having dutiful roleplayers surrounding them hastens the flow of half-court sets and balances the floor with a more traditional – as close to traditional as Toronto can get – supporting cast. Their passing and cutting limber up the offence and frustrate defences. When your team is so dependent on a few players, any sort of distraction or niggling effect on defenders’ minds is a win.
There’s no ego with Thad or Juancho. Pragmatism and humility brings their best traits forward.
5. Les Rotations, Part Cinq
All of that said, this isn’t just about what works in the on/off categories.
So much of roster building and rotation implementation is about relationship. How you communicate generally and how you express trust, specifically, will go a long way for player development and overall success.
Gary seemed to take the benching and the callout by Nurse on his defence in stride.
“It is what it is. Any game, day in, day out, whatever coach’s game plan is, we’re going to follow it,” said Trent Jr. later. “We’re going to be with him 100 per cent, back him and try to execute it the best of our abilities and that’s what we did tonight.”
Quote from Michael Grange of Sportsnet
Scottie clearly didn’t love it as much.
Maybe it was always in Nurse’s plan to bring Scottie back to the starting lineup after his return from a knee/ankle problem. Or maybe, Nurse felt and saw something that prompted him to start Scottie again.
Conjecture all around. All we know is that Scottie has not been himself of late. Moving to the bench might help him. Against Cleveland, in his first regular season game off the bench, he played 26 minutes scored 11 on 5/12 shooting and had 5 assist, 3 steals, and 3 turnovers. A very solid evening.
6. Les Rotations, Part Six
Scottie does and will continue to coexist with the Toronto Raptor starters. It might just take time. It’s why they will likely continue onward with Scottie among the starters. By playoffs, they could be gellin’ like Ferdinand.
Pascal as the dominant force bending the will of defences. Scottie his faithful 1st mate leveraging the initial breakdowns and inflicting greater damage in the myriad of ways Scottie does so extravagantly. With O.G. and Freddy and Gary all waiting voraciously for that kickout, it’s a natural offensive force. That is the vision.
The team’s just not there yet. Freddy’s usage is back on the rise. O.G.’s just had a sweet taste of volume scoring. And Scottie’s not getting the ball in the spots he wants to attack.
Giving Scottie free reins to operate and devise half-court sets amongst rotation players is having Toronto’s cake and eating it too. Scottie gets to experiment. Scottie gets to develop. The bench gets more balance. The starters have a more concentrated approach.
Finally, as is always said with these fraught proposals. It’s not who starts the game. It’s who finishes them. The “starters” whether it be Thad or Koloko will most certainly not close games unless they’ve played supremely well. Nurse has never been shy to pull starters or bench traditional “closers” in turn for the hot hand either. Scottie will have plenty of opportunity to play in the biggest moments of games.
Bench Scottie might just simply be a single stage in a great metamorphosis. And I don’t think Scottie or Toronto should be afraid to live it out.
