The first word out of Masai Ujiri’s mouth to start the 2024-2025 season was rebuild. From the onset, the Raptors, from top down, knew exactly what their 30th anniversary season would entail.
It was a whirlwind. The Raptors honoured their legends, celebrated fan favourites, showed why purple should stay, and highlighted local heroes throughout their themed nights.
On the court, it was no less scattered. The team battled through injuries to start the season, and we got to see their full starting lineup together for just 107 minutes all year. Their trio of Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley only played in 16 games together this season. At one point, the team went 1-16 and then followed that up by going 8-2. They won when they were supposed to lose. They lost when they could have won. They shamelessly benched starters and intermittently rested their core players to try and tank for lottery balls.
And yet still, you can come away from this season with immense optimism. Despite the (oftentimes purposeful) losing, there is a lot we can glean from this season’s Raptors team and project forward.
Here are six positives to takeaways from the Raptors season.
Positive #1: The Raptors nailed the 2024 Draft
The Raptors took five swings in the 2024 NBA draft, and they might have nailed them all. Sure, they didn’t have a lottery pick to work with, but Ja’Kobe Walter’s two-way ability has shown the upside of a true lottery-level prospect. In his 34 games since January 1st, Walter is knocking down 39.5 percent of his threes on 3.5 attempts a night. While the self-creation has been a work in progress, Walter is aggressive and has a free-throw rate higher than Alex Sarr, Matas Buzelis, and Zacharrie Risascher. Besides, his length and lateral quickness defensively project to make him a positive defender as soon as next season.
The Raptors “got one” in Walter, but there is potential elsewhere in their draft class, too. Jamal Shead has been one of the most effective rookie point guards in the league this season, and his 3-point shooting (33 percent on three attempts a night) has been less of an issue than expected. His pace and ability to set up the Raptors offensively makes him third among rookies in assists per game, second in assist percentage, and second in assist-to-turnover ratio. His size has been a defensive limitation, and figuring out that end of the floor and rounding out his game offensively are the next steps he needs to take. But there’s enough to be pleasantly surprised with the 45th overall pick.
The same goes with Jonathan Mogbo, who just registered the only triple-double by a rookie this season. Mogbo, from day one, was a positive impact defender and is already one of the best pound-for-pound offensive rebounders in the NBA. His length, size, and activity have translated on the defense end, but the next step is turning him into a positive offensive player. Mogbo shot 49 percent on 2s this season. He shot 60 percent at the rim and 27 percent in the short mid-range area, ranking in the 13th and 10th percentile amongst all big men in the NBA. Improving his touch around the basket and dunking everything should help (and he mentioned that he’s been trying to dunk everything recently), and his feel for the game shows promise of him eventually becoming a stat-sheet stuffer.
Eleven rookies average more than four threes a game. Jamison Battle has the second-best 3-point percentage, knocking down 40.4 percent of his looks. He’s a marksman, knocking down 40 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes, and he’s improved to 40 percent on off-the-dribble looks (up from 26 percent in February), albeit on low volume. I spoke to Battle in March about the next steps he wants to take in his game, particularly as a defender, and while the guard rotation with the Raptors is crowded with Ochai Agbaji, Gradey Dick and Walter — there’s always room for a player like him to crack the rotation.
Lying in wait is Ulrich Chomche, who was one of the most impressive defenders in the G-League last season. While Raptors fans didn’t get a chance to watch him more extensively to finish the season, there’s even more potential for the Raptors to have nailed their 2024 draft class if Chomche begins to show promise next season.
The Raptors haven’t had a rookie haul with this level of impact and talent from one draft class in years.
Positive #2: The RJ Barrett leap was real
RJ Barrett has played 90 games for the Raptors over 1.5 seasons. In that span, he’s averaged 21.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and five assists, making 36 percent of his 3s, 50 percent from the field, and 55 percent of his 2s. He was one of the most effective pick-and-roll players in the league for the first three months of the year, and his 1.022 PPP in those actions (including passes) still ranks in the 71st percentile, which is very good for his position. That’s an excellent number for a secondary creator who can get the bulk of his offensive opportunities feasting against bench units. His connection with Jakob Poeltl in those actions has been particularly fruitful, and the two have been the best (and most frequent) connection on the Raptors this season.
With the addition of Ingram and Barrett becoming extension-eligible this summer, his future in Toronto may be unclear. What is clear is that Barrett has become a legitimately good player in his time with the Raptors. And there’s still room for growth as a defender, passer, and shooter for the 24-year-old. The Raptors should think long and hard before considering moving off of the hometown kid, and if they do, they should get a nice return because of the type of player he’s become.
Positive #3: There’s a good defensive team in there
The Raptors have had a top-five defence since January 1st, allowing 111.1 points per 100 possessions. Their starting five had a defensive rating of 108.8 in that span. With the combination of Jakob Poeltl’s rim protecting and Scottie Barnes prowling on the help side, there is a formula to the Raptors’ defensive approach with those two as their pillars on that end. Since January 1st, the Raptors have allowed the fourth fewest amount of shots in the paint, and teams are shooting a woeful 41.9 percent on those shots. They swarm and pinch in on drives, and their length, activity, and recovery time show off the tools of a really versatile defensive team. Even as the youngsters have taken over with larger roles, the defence has remained consistent.
While they did play easier competition in the second half of the season, the last 40 games have shown that the Raptors can be a good and even great defensive team, especially when Barnes and Poeltl are at their best.
Barnes has been masterful in the second half of the season defensively, playing All-Defense level basketball. With Barnes on the floor, the Raptors are 4.6 points per 100 possessions better on defense, ranking in the 85th percentile for his position, according to Cleaning The Glass.
Only 11 players are averaging more than one steal and one block per game. The Raptors have two in Barnes and Poeltl. Expect those two to be in All-Defensive conversations if the Raptors continue being one of the best defenses next season.
Positive #4: Brandon Ingram should help Scottie Barnes
While Scottie Barnes has clearly taken a leap on the defensive end, the offensive has left a lot to be desired.
Barnes has stayed stagnant as a scorer in his first full season as the number-one option and, in some areas, has even regressed. As opposed to last year, when he finished the season shooting 34 percent from 3, Barnes is shooting a woeful 26.9 percent on 4.4 attempts per game- dead last among players who average that volume nightly. Of 45 players who take more than 16 shots per game, Barnes ranks 36th in field-goal percentage. Of the 45 players with a usage rate of 25 percent or more, Barnes’s effective field-goal percentage of 47.7 is second-to-last, only behind rookie Stephon Castle.
Barnes has dealt with his fair share of injuries this season to his eye, his ankle, and most recently, his hand, so you have to consider that when looking at a down season as a scorer. But it’s disappointing nonetheless.
That’s where Brandon Ingram comes in. Much like how Pascal Siakam’s mid-range manipulation and isolation scoring allowed for Barnes to thrive off-ball as a scorer, Ingram can alleviate some pressure off of Barnes as well. In previous seasons, Barnes has been one of the best cutters in the league- in 2023-2024, he generated 1.493 PPP off cuts, ranking in the 84th percentile. But largely because of his responsibility with the ball in his hands, He only had a total of 69 possessions defined as ‘cuts’ this season, according to Synergy data. This season (admittedly on low volume), Barnes has been very good as the roll-man in pick-and-rolls, and it’s natural to see how he and Ingram could pair in those actions, mismatch hunting for one another — although likely against like-sized players.
This is not to say that Barnes can’t or won’t improve. He’s 23 years old and has had stretches where he’s shown off an improved 3-point shot, more craft in the mid-range area, and put it all together. The likely scenario is that he will be much better than this.
But Ingram will only help make his life easier as he reaches his next level.
Positive #5: Ja’Kobe Walter, Ochai Agbaji and Gradey Dick: The Wing Rotation
Gradey Dick’s season ended abruptly in March after a knee injury, but the second-year guard had an excellent first couple of months of the season. In 27 games before January 1st, Dick was averaging 17.6 points, doing so in a variety of ways: knocking down his 3s, settling into mid-range shots, and hitting acrobatic layups through traffic. Dick shot 44 percent on long mid-range shots to end out the year, ranking in the 70th percentile for his position — it’s officially #InHisBag. That said, as the season continued, Gradey started to slow down. Whether it was the grind of a full season as the starting shooting guard or losing the weight that he had gained in the off-season, Gradey could no longer ‘survive’ defensively. Offensively, his taxing playstyle, predicated on constant movement, left a lot of his jumpers short and off-target.
That said, Dick still took a leap this season. He still graded out as one of the best spot-up shooters in the NBA, knocking down 38 percent of his threes off the catch (more than half of them contested) and generating nearly 1.2 PPP off those sets, ranking in the 85th percentile. To start the season, he showed All-Star level craft and potential. That, in itself, is a massive positive moving forward. How Gradey sustains that and puts it all together is an evolving question that we’ll have to track as his career progresses. And given the up-and-down nature of both of his seasons so far in the league, it would be important to find consistency through the marathon of the NBA season.
Ochai Agbaji also took a leap or, at the very least, proved he could be a rotation player in the NBA. Like Dick, he had a huge start to the season. He’s going to finish the year shooting 39 percent from 3 on nearly four attempts per game. He’s a good spot-up player and a smart cutter and screener on offense. Defensively, despite being somewhat undersized on the wings, he holds his own more than enough not to be picked on. He provides the team with a baseline of competence at the wing spot in case either Gradey or Walter are having off nights, and he can step in and fill their void valiantly.
How the Raptors’ wing rotation shakes out next season with Walter, Dick, and Agbaji all scrapping for minutes next to Barnes, Barrett and Ingram is a difficult question (one that is worth asking Darko Rajakovic next season), but there’s no question that with their wing trio, the Raptors are armed with secondary creation and shooting that should really bode well next to their primary offensive hubs.
Positive #6: The team responds to Darko Rajakovic
It’s hard to look too much into coaching in the NBA, especially when you’ve dealt with as much as Darko Rajakovic has in his first two seasons as Head Coach of the Raptors. That said, the way the players have responded to Rajakovic (and the rest of the coaching staff) by buying in on a completely lost season and competing is a testament to the players’ belief not only in the system but also in Rajakovic himself. The team never quit even though it was given countless opportunities.
The Raptors’ front office clearly knew this last summer when they opted into the final year of his contract in 2026-2027, giving him another two-year window to work with this group of players. He’s also turned around their defense despite the team actively trying to lose games and has helped players like Dick, Agbaji, Shead, and others maximize their opportunities on the floor.
He’s proven he can coach a developing team at a high level and that the team responds to his methods. Next season, he’ll have to turn that development into wins.
Conclusion:
Admittedly, there is some glass-half-fullness to what I’m trying to preach here, but the truth is: there is a lot to look forward to from here on out if you’re a Raptors fan.
With the NBA’s draft lottery a month away, that could be another positive, depending on where the Raptors land. In unnamed lottery rookie and Ingram, Toronto will have a huge injection of talent next season. Regardless, this team was better than its record this season, and if it weren’t for some in-season shenanigans and injuries, they’re likely battling for positioning in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament right now.
Adding in (a hopefully healthy) Ingram to a core of Barrett, Barnes, Poeltl, and Quickley is more than enough talent to be a good team in the Eastern Conference. And if the young players like Dick, Walter, Shead, Mogbo, Battle, or Agbaji continue to develop into meaningfully impactful NBA players, then the Raptors will have quickly turned into one of the deepest teams in the league.
There’s a vision—a method to the madness. And while it was hard to see the through line through a depressing, oftentimes slow-trotting season, the future is a little clearer.
That’s all you can ask for in a rebuild.
