The NBA can be a fickle place.

When you think about it, the only consistent thing about the world’s best basketball league is that it’s always changing.

And whether that’s good or bad is truly a matter of perspective.

Change can be exciting, yet daunting. It can breed hope, but also uncertainty. All of which makes it a pretty hard notion to contextualize when considering multiple viewpoints. Still, there is one thing about change that remains universal regardless of perception: whether we’re ready for it or not, it’s going to happen all the same.

Take the upcoming 2025-26 season for the Toronto Raptors, for instance. Thanks to the insertion of a 20-point-per-game scorer in Brandon Ingram and presumably two draft picks, change is going to hit the roster about as hard as Sean Taylor would if its name were Brian Moorman — whether the team is prepared for it or not. And that’s not even counting any upcoming goodbyes or hellos in free agency.

And again, what any of that means for each current player is truly a matter of perspective. For some, the influx of talent will open the doors of opportunity, and for others, it could spell the beginning of the end for their time in Toronto.

Okay, that might be a bit dramatic, although not entirely unrealistic.

The Raptors enter the off-season in quite a unique situation. Despite coming off a moribund 30-win campaign that had them shoulder-to-shoulder with the NBA’s cellar-dwellers, the team is already looking to leave its rebuild in the rearview mirror. Primed with a plethora of individual talents worthy of “what about this guy” consideration in convos around the league, and a payroll that invites expectations, change is exactly what Toronto is looking for.

Ultimately, the kind that will almost certainly come at the expense of players already on the roster. With that being said, here are three Raptors whose roles could change, and in this case, shrink next season.

RJ Barrett

24-25 stats (58 games): 21.2 PTS | 6.3 REB | 5.4 AST* | 0.8 STL | 0.2 BLK | 2.8 TOV | 54.7 TS%
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The addition of Ingram will undoubtedly shift how everyone on the roster operates, but arguably none more than Barrett. While the 24-year-old led the Raptors in scoring last year, he did it while also taking the most shots (18.9 attempts per game) and on the highest usage (a career-high 28.7 per cent).

But neither of those trends seems likely to continue with Ingram in the mix, considering the former all-star hasn’t taken fewer than 16 shots per game or had a usage rate lower than 28 per cent since his third year in the NBA — all while sharing the floor with guys like Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum. In 18 games with the New Orleans Pelicans last year, Ingram averaged 18.5 attempts on a 30.2 per cent usage.

And while the 27-year-old will have to capitulate as well, at least to some degree, what he provides on the court will almost certainly be prioritized over Barrett. Why? Because Ingram approximates much of what Barrett provides offensively while adding layers of diversity that the latter doesn’t.

It’s no secret that Barrett was a downhill force last season — top 30 in the NBA for average points from drives — but the numbers suggest Ingram’s been equally productive for much of his career, a bit more efficient and a lot less predictable. For instance, the pair were essentially neck-and-neck in drives per game last season, with Barrett taking the edge on production and Ingram doing so for efficiency, all while Barrett saw a third of his field-goal attempts come on drives compared to a quarter of Ingram’s. But when you take into account the ex-Pelican’s increased willingness to pass on said plays (even though Barrett did show strides in that department, to his credit) and far superior pull-up shooting, putting the ball in his hands ultimately offers more pathways to success.

And although the Maple Mamba did show value as a self-creator — 43 per cent of his makes were unassisted, second highest on the Raptors and 89th percentile per Cleaning The Glass — Ingram simply has a greater track record of success in that role. And given head coach Darko Rajakovic’s style of offence, there’s only going to be so much ball-stopping allowed. I’d expect more cutting and curling for Barrett to get his drives moving forward, although he could still see some primary work in staggered lineup combos with bench units.

Ultimately, when considering the natural overlap between the two, it seems like a given that the player who’ll sacrifice the most in the starting lineup will be Barrett. Immanuel Quickley’s ability to operate off-ball, coupled with his sorely-needed production from distance, makes me think circumstances won’t change quite as drastically for him. Scottie Barnes’ development is still of the utmost importance, so he’ll presumably stay on-ball quite a bit — and given the financial commitments from the Raptors to himself, Quickley and Ingram, expect the team to focus on that trio’s cohesion. Meanwhile, Jakob Poeltl will remain a low-usage darling … leaving Barrett as the odd man out.

What that means for his long-term future in Toronto is largely unknown — he’s extension eligible this off-season — but in the meantime, Barrett’s role on the court projects to be quite different moving forward.

Gradey Dick

24-25 stats (54 games): 14.4 PTS | 3.6 REB | 1.8 AST | 0.9 STL | 0.3 BLK | 1.5 TOV | 54.3 TS%

The sell here is quite simple. With Ingram inserted into the starting lineup, the sophomore turning junior is almost certainly going to be pushed out of the first five, despite starting in all of his appearances with Toronto last season.

And depending on who the Raptors go with if they keep the No. 9 pick, the slide could be even further down the totem pole.

But that’s not necessarily a bad thing. I still believe Dick can scale his game effectively based on the parts around him. We’ve seen him flash a bit of everything, from on-ball creativity to doing catch-and-shoot stuff the Raptors absolutely need more of. And doing it without the burden of being picked apart by opposing starters on the other end while in the confines of staggered second-unit lineups may just be the kind of insulation he needs right now.

There’s no doubt his upside as a movement threat and tough-shot taker is one Toronto wants to tap into more, but doing so without leniency has led to ill effects. It was great that the 21-year-old made the most of his early opportunities for an injury-riddled team — even earning early M.I.P. buzz as he averaged 17.6 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.1 assists on 41.6/34.8/88.9 per cent shooting splits through the 2024 portion of the season — but he was also being asked carry a tremendous load, especially for a second-year player who already came into the league with concerns over how his body would deal with the physical rigors of the pro game.

By the end of November, Dick was top 15 in the NBA for distance traveled by feet and miles as the Raptors squeezed every bit of juice they could out of his early momentum. And although it paired with his early production, it wasn’t a tenable approach. He ranked third on the roster for scoring through 2024, but once the calendar flipped, he slid down to sixth. All while the second-year guard’s numbers progressively declined month-by-month, from averaging 18.8 points in October to 11.2 in February (his last healthy 30-day stretch of the season). So, it wasn’t a sophomore slump as much and more akin to the kind of downward dip rookies tend to face as they acclimate to the big league.

The hope is that he’ll be able to continue exploring his offensive upside in the context of a bench role, without the expectations and demands that come with being a starter. And if Dick can carve out some consistency despite his role “shrinking,” it may work out well for both sides.

Jonathan Mogbo

24-25 stats (63 games): 6.2 PTS | 4.9 REB | 2.3 AST | 0.9 BLK | 0.5 BLK | 1.1 TOV | 49.6 TS%

The Raptors have plenty of needs, and unfortunately, the tweener forward doesn’t fill many of them particularly well at this point. While Mogbo showed his upside as a stout NBA-level defender and an increasing confidence on the other end, his rookie campaign didn’t exactly secure his place on the roster.

The defensive value was undeniable — his 111.9 defensive rating was third on the team, and his 46.8 defended field goal percentage ranked fourth (min. 50 games played). But when Toronto has the ability to draft wings who are more 3-and-D ready or bigs who can crash-and-dash better with either of Nos. 9 or 39, just adding value on one side of the ball isn’t going to cut it.

It didn’t help Mogbo’s case that the Raptors’ development plan of turning him into a jumbo wing was derailed by their sheer lack of centre depth, especially after shipping away Kelly Olynyk. What the two sides were then left with was a handful of productive games in the G League that upped his belief in his jumper, coupled with some useful point-of-attack reps — none of which got to materialize at the NBA level all that much as he kept filling in behind Poeltl.

All while his time as a small-ball centre in the NBA didn’t reach the level it was at in college. The University of San Francisco product shot 59 per cent in the restricted area and was a 12th-percentile finisher at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass — neither of which can be stomached should Mogbo be a long-term option at the five.

So, although his defence popped, his athleticism flashed and him converting 24 per cent from distance on 70 attempts was a marked improvement after shooting just two triples throughout his collegiate career, none of that was nearly potent enough to summarily supplant him over prospects like Carter Bryant, Khaman Maluach or others should they join the roster.

If Mogbo doesn’t enter his sophomore season with measurable developments, minutes might be tough to come by early on.