And so…as it goes…the season commences and our hearts flutter and souls suffer…as it goes…
But seriously, someone needs to tell this franchise that homeostasis is good for humans. That all the variability and tumult and hither and thither is causing us all misery. We’ve had it up to here with the Blue Jays already. You think we can handle all this up and down stuff so soon?
A mere eight games in, and the Raptors have already squatted out a four-game losing streak and ripped off three straight wins.
I can’t be mad. Stressed out, sure. Mad, no. Just impressed.
Let’s roll.
1. Never know whatcha gonna Bench
Responsible for some of this madness has been the volatility of the Raptors’ bench.
In the first five games of the season, the young and inexperienced rotation – Sandro Mamukelashvili is the oldest at 26 with the most years played [4] – looked to already be an insolvable quandary. It was 16th in net rating, 21st in points scored, and as resistant as rotten fruit on the glass (25th in rebounding percentage).
The lot of them looked lost, small, and, ineffectual. Only Jamison Battle had a positive plus/minus in their losses, and he played limited minutes in just two games.
Then, as you’d expect with this unpredictable Raptors bunch, it switched. The last three games, the bench was 2nd in net rating, 14th in points scored, and rebounding more firmly (4th in percentage).
So much goes into these small sample sizes; we can’t take too much from any of it.
Immanuel Quickley and Jakob Pöltl, for example, got off to putrid starts. Any bench lineup that played more than 2 minutes with Quickley or Pöltl had negative point totals. Then, in the last three wins, Quickley and majority bench lineups were net positive. Easy come, easy go.
Add not having a back-up centre to all the other normal difficulties of a new season – new guys, new roles, new stratagem, new systems, new rotations, etc., – and, of course, a young bench will struggle early.
Their poor shooting surely didn’t help. Of guys taking more than three attempts a game, only Mamukelashvili shot over 45% in that 1-4 start. In three subsequent wins, Gradey Dick, Jamison Battle, and Jamal Shead all shot at or well-past 60%.
Some of the success is simply facing lesser opponents. The Raptors played teams either heavily injured (Memphis and Cleveland) or on the second night of a back-to-back (Milwaukee). Opposing units extending deep into their bench stood little chance against the relentless Raptor subs.
It’s hard to know what this Raptors bench, ultimately, becomes. It’s hard to even know what we’re to get night-to-night.
There are some certainties formulating. Shead’s established himself as a legitimate NBA back-up. He plays at a blazing pace in both the half and full court while, mostly, under control and in command. My wild prediction that he one day replaces IQ is well and live.
Dick looks to have regained some confidence. He’s shooting swiftly and making better decisions off his first step and out of the drive. Mamukelashvili’s shooting and attacks on close-outs has brought the team square-miles of space. And, Colin Murray-Boyle’s demi-godlike strength is wreaking havoc at both ends of the floor. Trouble if his 3-point shot holds true.
Perhaps, a new bench mob emerges. The guys certainly have the gusto. Between Shead, Ja’Kobe Walter, and Ochai Agbaji’s doggedness, Murray-Boyles destructive powers, Dick’s self-creation, and Mamukelashvili and Battle’s perimeter shooting, there’s something.
Or, perhaps, major swings will just be the norm. An inevitability with such a young, emergent group. Some nights will be proliferent others barren. The Raptors will just have to make due with whatever they get.
And, heck, that might just be enough.
2. Rim Job Joy
I know. It’s early. I know.
I’m probably jinxing it too. I know, I know, I know.
But let’s rejoice for a moment while we can, shall we?
The Toronto Raptors. Yes, the Toronto Raptors are in the seventh percentile for at-rim accuracy.
Seventh!
The last time the Raptors cracked the top ten was 2017-18.
It’s eight games in. This might all flutter into the ephemeral void like cracker crumbs and an industrial fan. But it also might not.
It, certainly, feels different.
This isn’t just the old story of second-chance scoring inflating success rates – offensive rebounding percentages and putback points per miss are lower than in years past. Nor is it coming from post-ups where the Raptors are virtually last.
No, much is a direct result of attacking the basket off the dribble. Toronto, as a team, ranks 11th in drives per game; Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, and Brandon Ingram each average roughly ten drives a game, and shoot 46%, 58%, and 55%, respectively, out of them.
Ingram, particularly, makes it all look so easy. His moves so obvious and natural; their difficulty undermined by his grace. Each finish a coin simply plopped into a pond.
Against, slower defenders, Ingram waits to hesitate and languidly slips by or lowers into a prowl and explodes past them.
With smaller, quicker opponents, Ingram uses a whirling combination of pivots and step-throughs to, eventually, slither past.
The irony is, despite how easy these attacks are, they’re not Ingram’s preferred modus operandi. His penchant for (56% of his shots) and accuracy from (81st percentile for wings) the mid-range forces defenders to not only keep tight to Ingram, but to follow him along his litany of movements.
That gives Ingram an inherent edge. One slight step out of position, one bite on a fake, or one poorly angled close-out and Ingram is past gulfing nearly any distance to the hoop with his immense length.
3. Poor Pöltl Output
I mentioned in our tri-table preview how Jakob Pöltl is an unsung on/off hero. Atop the league yearly.
So much of what this team can become relies on Pöltl’s contributions. He’s absolute around the rim, an excellent passer, a bastard of a screener, and, usually, the foundation of this team’s defensive rigour.
Not this year. In his 112 minutes played this season, Toronto is -20.8 points per 100 possessions and giving up 12 points per 100 possessions on the defensive end with him on the floor. Pöltl’s effective field goal percentage is the lowest it’s been since he was a rookie and his defensive rebounding, block, steal, and foul rates are all intolerably low.
A lower back injury has hampered Pöltl, thus far. It explains much of his reduced production. Only against Milwaukee, did he seem more like himself, moving and rebounding more forcefully.
Pöltl’s absence and poor play has, certainly, contributed to the Raptors’ early struggles. At his best, this team’s can reach a potential few consider. At his lesser, this team will continue to struggle against more imposing teams.
4. No Mo’ Free Throws
The great sample size caveat.
We’re eight games in. Nothing matters. PSYCH! EVERYTHING MATTERS. ESPECIALLY FREE THROWS.
The Raptors are neither getting to the free throw line (20th percentile in free throw rate) nor limiting opponents (26th percentile in opponent free throw rate) enough. To be in the bottom third of the league in both is worrisome.
Fouling a lot is fine when you play an aggressive defensive scheme with a lot of guys to deploy. But it can also compromise other aspects of a team’s strategy. Fouling slows games down, for example, and Toronto, currently 9th in pace, wants to keep games at a higher speed. That also plays into the possession battle. A lopsided free-throw differential mitigates the benefit of getting more shots up than the other team.
Free throws are also the most certain source of scoring. The Raptors are shooting exceptionally well from the field, for now – they’re fifth in effective field goal percentage. Should that diminish free throws are an important way to supplement a wavering offence.
In wins, Raptors are 13th in free throw attempts allowed; in losses, 28th. That could be more a symptom of their losing than a cause. Either way it’s connected, and, something to monitor as wins and losses mount and trends become more clear.
5. Darko Mania
Hey uhhh, Open Gym, can we just like have full 24/7 coverage of Darko Rajaković already?
Cause he’s must-see-TV. All the time.
Look at the fear he’s cutting out of these guys.
IQ is legit scared.
Scottie is utterly bewildered.
Meanwhile, Ingram’s looking like a little kid in the back seat finding out they’re hitting McDonald’s for dinner.
That’s the kind of energy I want all the time. And you know you’re getting it from Darko all of the time.
You know Darko’s doing this when he finds out cauliflower is $1 a pound off at Loblaws. You knowwww when the team flight lands amidst a bit of wind and turbulence Darko’s racing up to those pilots and scaring the living daylights out of the secret FBI security flyer guy sitting helplessly nearby. You knowwwww when he hits a little Serbian SuperLiga parlay on a Sunday morning that every neighbour on Darko’s block is looking like IQ and Scottie, terrifyingly in wait of whatever barbarian horde is about to bull down their front door.
GIVE ME ALL THAT ENERGY ALL THE TIME.
If anything, now, I just need this team to hit more milestones, to win more games, to reach greater heights just so I can see Darko scare the fruit-and-nut shit out of everyone on this team over and over again. Just so I can see to what level of energy Darko can go. I want to see a nuclear level conniption. Like, I want Chucky Hepburn to accidentally take an exhilarated, unintentional Darko jab right in the belly and keel over laughing breathlessly at his coach’s absolute craziness. I want to see Sandro get smoked in the shoulder and then immediately cock one back reflexively all wily-eyed only to have a few assistant coaches hold him back. I want all the hysterics and more!
Cause I don’t think anyone’s ready for what levels Darko can actually go if this team starts steam-rolling.
