Perhaps no single statistic captures the decline of the Toronto Raptors as a franchise offence, year over year, as well as half-court efficiency. And when you take out offensive rebounding, and only look at first-chance efficiency, the numbers truly paint a descriptive picture.
In 2018-19, led by a variety of future Hall of Famers, the Raptors ranked eighth in points per half-court play, scoring 96.4 points per 100 plays. That number represents purely first-shot chances, thus eliminating both transition and offensive-rebounding opportunities. Both have been crutches for Toronto during its eras since then. But in 2018-19, Toronto was very strong compared to the league in points per half-court play. However, since then, Toronto fell to 15th the following year, then 20th, then 26th, 25th, 26th, and 25th again. It has been a tale of inability to score against a set defence. Perhaps more than anything else, that failure has defined Toronto’s plummet to the doldrums of the league.
That is, until this season. So far this year, Toronto ranks seventh in the league, scoring 99.4 points per 100 half-court plays. That is the first time the Raptors have topped their raw 2018-19 mark, despite the leaguewide offence over that same time period exploding.
The major change has, of course, been the addition of Brandon Ingram. He hasn’t been the only addition, and much has gone well beyond Ingram’s own contributions. But he has by and large improved every aspect of the team’s half-court offence. Which was the original idea in going out and acquiring him from the New Orleans Pelicans.
He hasn’t been perfect. But he’s delivered on exactly the promise. Let’s start with perhaps the most important element; among players averaging two or more isolations a game, he is fifth in efficiency on such possessions, scoring 1.23 points per possession.
Sure, there are only a handful of isolation possessions on which Ingram actually scores in an individual game. But he’s initiating out of more than a few that don’t register with an attempted shot, as his isolations have been getting deep in the paint, leading to fairly easy kickouts to shooters. He’s not always creating to the rim in such circumstances, but he has a strong ‘hang in the air, then throw the ball directly behind him to a shooter’ go-to passing move that creates solid looks for shooters. (RJ Barrett, especially, has been shooting the pants off the ball off of Ingram passes.)
Isolation may not be a modern, sexy offensive play. (Although, I would quibble there.) But ultimately it’s a requirement. Even the most high-pace, high-pass offence stalls into isolation
And Toronto is using Ingram’s isolation as a last resort. Ingram is finishing 2.4 possessions per game out of isolation, which is fewer than he did in any previous season since 2016-17, long before his tenure began with the Pelicans. Instead, he is initiating far more sets out of the corner. He is receiving plenty of pindown screens and darting into handoffs (also called Zoom or Chicago action) and creating on the move. He has been a popular target out of a borrowed action that sees a ballscreener ghost into a flare screen on the opposite wing, which has seen Ingram catch out of the flare screen and launch from deep or drive. (They did use that set last year, but it has seen far more usage this season, and my guess is because Darko Rajakovic likes it in particular for Ingram.)
Furthermore, he leads the team in shots out of pick-and-roll as the ball handler. He isn’t running such sets to get his teammates but instead to create for himself. He’s feasting on drop defence, on switches, on virtually anything. His precision at maneuvering into on-balance looks with the ball in his hands has been immaculate.
All of this is working because — and this is certainly burying the lede — he is shooting 56.2 percent on pull-up 2-pointers. That’s equivalent to the efficiency of elite pull-up 3-point shooters like Donovan Mitchell. As a result of him taking so many more 2s than 3s off the bounce, he actually leads the league in pull-up field-goal percentage among medium- or high-volume qualifiers. He’s shooting 53.7 percent on drives. This is a lot of numbers to say that he’s scoring remarkably efficiently despite taking so many mid-range shots and shooting well below his career average from deep. In fact, that last point should indicate he has more meat on the bone when his 3-point stroke normalizes.
He boasts the team’s highest offensive on/off splits among all rotation players, at plus-8.8 points per 100 possessions. The team isn’t better offensively in every way with Ingram playing. It doesn’t attempt more free throws with him on the court versus on the bench. It doesn’t turn the ball over less. But it makes a higher frequency of its shots by such a wide margin that all the rest of it is outweighed by pure bucket gettery. That tracks with his skills and the needs of the team for those abilities.
(These are the best offensive on/offs of his career, which could be noise because of low volume and could simply indicate that the Raptors desperately needed his talents but could indicate that he is being used better than he has previously.)
And even though Ingram himself isn’t dominating at the rim or behind the arc, the team is much better from those all-important areas when Ingram is playing versus on the bench. His mid-range artistry is opening up real offensive value beyond his own scoring. If you compare this, by the way, to DeMar DeRozan in 2017-18, those signals weren’t there at all. The Raptors were much better from the midrange with DeRozan playing, but there wasn’t much of a change at the rim or from behind the arc. This is to say there is more to Ingram’s impact than might meet the eye.
He’s doing all this, and leading the team in scoring, while averaging the fourth-most touches on the team. In fact, this is the fewest touches he’s averaged since he was a Los Angeles Laker, and in fact he’s dribbling less and holding the ball less than he has at any point in his career. Let me restate that, because it is a wild statistic: at age 28, firmly in his prime and trying to recapture his All-Star status, Brandon Ingram is touching the ball less, averaging fewer dribbles, and holding the ball for less time than he has ever before. He has adapted with gumption to the asks of coach Rajakovic.
And it’s working. It’s benefiting Ingram and the Raptors. Ingram hasn’t been the best player on the Raptors. But his presence on the offensive end, specifically in the half court, initiating from the corners rather than dominating entire possessions, has catalyzed Scottie Barnes into being the best version of himself.
There are nits to pick. His passing hasn’t come along as well as the Raptors might have hoped, and his assist rate is also lower than it’s been since he was a Laker. He is making some ill-timed reads from above the break and throwing needless turnovers, and his passing on the drive is basically non-existent. He has been blocked around the rim quite a bit when the spray to the corner has been available.
Similarly, his defence has been less than adequate. Though he has shown commitment to the scheme, his lack of physicality has punished him, as players like PJ Washington and Trendon Watford have bullied him on the drive. It hasn’t all been bad; his defensive rebounding has been quite solid. But the team needs even more from him there (through no fault of his own, just because the team lacks defensive rebounding ability). But for Toronto to really step into the next tier of teams, Ingram’s defence has to upgrade. His offence already is, in many ways, the best it has been of his career. The defence has to match.
But all told, Ingram has fit smoothly into Toronto’s systems. He has both benefited the players around him and been benefited by their presence. That is synergy! That is chemistry! That is good!
It is likely that his mid-range shooting will tail off somewhat, perhaps down to 50 percent accuracy or so. (Which is still great.) His 3-point shooting should tick up, as he’s been on a cold streak to start the year, but I have no doubts whatsoever about his abilities there.
But if Ingram plays like this, out of these actions, making these choices, and scoring the ball with this ability, Toronto will easily, easily look upon its decision to trade for Ingram as a win. I wrote this after the trade:
So there’s a plan. There are plenty of pitfalls. And the Raptors continue changing the plan. Perhaps it will change tomorrow, too, with another day available for trades. There could be more shoes to drop. It could all work out, with the Raptors buying cheap to add a huge influx of talent. But in committing to this new path, and paying draft capital again when the team is predicted to be a seller, not a buyer, the Raptors are walking on the edge of a knife. Stray but a little, and it will fail.
Things can of course change. But for now, only a handful of games into the 2025-26 season, it looks like Toronto and Ingram himself are walking on that knife’s edge without fear or fumble.
