Cautiously celebrating the Toronto Raptors’ winning

Just take a second. Close your eyes. Breathe. Deeply.

Breathe again.

Take it all in.

This, my friends, is what fandom is all about.

This is the heart of the palm. The eye of the storm. The centre of a Tootsie Pop.

Because this, this moment, is a special one. It’s so very unique; so very fleeting. Something we may not ever have back. Like watching a hatchling first make its way from the shell. An origin story happening just the once.

From here on out the hatchling leaps. Perhaps, it soars. Maybe, it plummets. In all likelihood, it’ll clumsily loop-de-loop its way about. Reach high. Dare low. And everything between.

That will be fun too. Don’t get me wrong. But witnessing your favourite team find itself is precious.

Seeing it coalesce, possession-by-possession, quarter-by-quarter, rotation-by-rotation is something – to me – almost more wonderful than a playoff run – almost.

Savour the moment.

And, then, wake up!

Let that raw sewage emanating from across your bedroom apartment return. Lean off the passenger-side window and remind yourself of that honking toxic mess of a traffic jam you’re still stuck in.

Back to reality.

You didn’t think I’d let your day be all ginger candy and fresh cut lawns did you?

C’mon.

It’s my journalistic responsibility to keep everyone on task. In August, it was to chide the ignorance of national critics doubting the Toronto Raptors. Now, it’s to cool off the very same praising them.

In the last two days, I listened to, at least, three NBA podcasts both celebrating the Raptors’ recent success and repenting for underestimating them.

That’s nice. Real nice. But nah. No thanks. Mea Culpas not yet welcome.

For one, we don’t want’em. We’re happy thinking everyone ignores us. It’s our version of Popeye’s spinach. The only reason why you’re surprised by the success is because you weren’t paying attention to them in the first place, were ya?

For two, chill. Please, everyone, just chill. Perk, chill:

Toronto being four games above five hundred this early in the season is surely a sight to behold. Thrilling, in fact. But I caution against the early excitement. Because, in spite of all their sudden winning, the streak has not really been that impressive. Look for yourself:

No science to any of this, I admit. But, I think it’s fair to say that really only three – wins over a healthy Cleveland and tough Atlanta, and a winnable loss to Philly – of the last nine games were of note. They were gritty and commanding. Bubbles of something funky brewing. Exemplification of real growth.

The rest though…kinda gimmes.

Charlotte, for example, played really well. They’re an exciting, spunky team; they’re also 4-10. They’re beating the Raptors at home, but for two heroic buzzer-beating blocks. That’s not something to brag about for an up-and-coming team earning keeps.

A win’s a win. True.

But if the expectations – and the praising we’ve heard these last few days – of this team is upper-mid-tier Eastern Conference or bust, well, then, the Hornies shoulda got shoved in their locker just for showing up at Scotiabank Arena not getting to go punch-for-punch out in the back parking lot until Mr. McManus showed up and broke it apart [stupid Mr. McManus and his big bristling biceps].

Know what I mean?

Add to that, the three thumpings by Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston prior to all this wonderful winning, and I’m remaining cautiously optimistic.

Amongst all of this is the data. The cold hard truth of the matter. It tells a similarly cautionary tale. Where much of the recent winning could be due to some witch’s brew of luck, situation, and talent. A blackbox of fortune.

In fact, a deeper look at where the Raptors have been extremely successful suggest, should a natural regression to the mean occur, difficulty against the upper echelons of the NBA.

Health

I know it’s so early in the season to even consider such a thing. But take a look at who’s already gone down.

The Raptors have benefitted both from remaining healthy – other than Jakob Pöltl’s back problems to start the season – and playing teams down an important player or two.

But that sort of good health fortune is a teetering tower of toothpicks, particularly, with the disease of soft-tissue injuries plaguing higher-paced basketball teams.

[KNOCKS ON VERY HEAVY DENSE BEAUTIFUL KARMICLY-KIND WOOD].

3-Point Shooting

Throughout this 8-2 run, the Raptors have won the 3-point advantage on both sides of the floor. They’re 10th in 3-point field goal percentage while 1st(!) in opponent 3-point shooting field goal percentage.

One could argue this has to do with luck, but it’s hard to tell. For example, the Raptors give up a lot of corner 3s (26th percentile in frequency) with few going in (3rd percentile in accuracy). They have also held opponents to the fourth worst percentage (35%) in “wide-open” 3s despite giving up the 11th most attempts (21/game). In other words, teams miss a lot of shots they should, theoretically, hit.

There is some nuance to these numbers. Like, who is shooting these shots and when. Is it a panicked Tre Mann with a scrambling Scottie Barnes charging his periphery with only 3 seconds left on the shot clock?

Because that’s a lot harder a “wide-open” shot than, say, a “wide-open” shot. And the Raptors have been great at rotating and closing out, and making things tough for shooters. They’re not just watching other dudes hoist and hoping for the best.

Still, 3-point shooting variance fluctuates and the Raptors success at both ends could normalize.

Bench Production

Here’s a silly, phenomenal stat for you.

Of five-man lineups to play at least three minutes together in at least five games, the Barrett-Quickley-Barnes-Mamukelashvili-Dick and Ingram-Shead-Murray-Boyles-Mamukelashvili-Dick groups are third and ninth in net rating in the league. The common denominators, Dick and Mamu, are themselves 8th and 16th, respectively.

Throw Shead in there who’s behind only Josh Hart and Nikola Jokić in assist-to-usage, top ten in assist-to-turnovers (of those with 10% usage or more), and shooting 42% from 3 (on 2 attempts a game) and the bench has become, arguably, the Raptors’ biggest edge.

Should the precocious lot dull, the Raptors will have to rely more significantly on a less-potent starting lineup (+0.4 per 100 possessions) to pick up the slack.

Offensive Efficiency

The Raptors offence has sizzled this past ten games. Their 7th best offensive rating is thanks in part to hot shooting, few turnovers, and a dominant half-court offence (5th percentile).

In that span, however, the Raptors have failed to fix their poor rebounding (20th on offence; 24th on defence) and free-throw attempt (16th on offence; 23rd on defence) rates.

Shooting is the most precarious of these data points. We already saw how the Raptors offence can look when an important shooter, such as Quickley, struggles. Not good.

Without something more reliable – like getting to the free-throw line or punishing the offensive glass – the Raptors may lack the versatility to jumpstart a, suddenly, sputtering offence.

~

The Raptors are already markedly different from a month ago. The team that ran Atlanta off the floor and the team that Dallas balled up into a crumpled piece of paper, chewed, and spat out aren’t the team they are now. They become more confident, powerful, and threatening as each game passes.

Still, they’ve yet to prove themselves against the better part of the league. After a few more “walk in the parks” coming up, the Raptors will see New York, the Los Angeles Lakers, and Portland in the span of a week.

Then, we’ll start to get a better idea if what we’ve seen so far is really worth all the celebration.