Morning Coffee – Wed, Dec 7

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Raptors trusting ball’s energy as offense thrives – Raptors Republic

To be clear, the Raptors’ offense functioning so well is a product of more than just making shots. Even when they’re not canning open looks, the Raptors do some other things well that ensure their offense has a high floor. Essentially, they may not score the most efficiently on each shooting possession, but they value each possession so highly that they “waste” fewer of them than most any other team. To wit, the Raptors have the third-lowest turnover rate in the league, rarely killing a possession in its infancy. They’re also eighth in offensive rebounding rate, extending the possessions on which they fail to score initially. And, as always, they’re elite at getting to the free-throw line (they’re third in free-throw attempts per-field-goal attempt), an element of offensive efficiency many seem to forget about (or look past, erroneously thinking free throws dry up in the playoffs). There’s also a bit of a misnomer that the Raptors’ offense is somehow anti-analytics because DeRozan doesn’t shoot threes, and while the Raptors aren’t a high-volume 3-point shooting team (20th in attempts), they are top-five in 3-point percentage (third) for a second year in a row, so they make the most of them.

What’s interesting about the upturn in offense and the discussion around how the Raptors are sharing the ball more is that they’re still not actually passing all that much, just making the most of the passes they make. The Raptors rank 29th in passes made per-game and 28th in potential assists, but they’re ninth in adjusted assist to pass percentage ratio (in other words, they produce points via assist at a top-10 rate when they do actually pass). They’re actually passing less than last year, when their sticky offense ranked fifth in the league, just passing with more purpose or efficacy. Even over the last eight games, when their offense has pushed even higher, the Raptors rank 29th in passes and 27th in potential assists, they’re just converting those passes to assists and points at a top-five rate.

Whether or not the idea of the ball gathering energy is true, the Raptors believing it to be true is important. If the shots that extra passing creates weren’t dropping, none of these good vibes would exist.

Being Optimistic Despite Not Being Top Tier – Raptors Republic

Life is going to get easier in many ways for Toronto, and as it does it will hopefully provide additional opportunities for growth.  It’s tough for young players like Pascal Siakam to chase the likes of Blake Griffin and Kevin Love (and to be switched onto LeBron James), or for Jakob Poeltl and Bebe Nogueira to effectively learn on the job against team’s that force many switches and cuts to the basket.

Toronto also remains the second best offensive team in the NBA at 116.1 points per 100 possessions.  For reference of how good that is, if Toronto maintains this pace to the end of the season (seems unlikely) they would be one of only two teams to have an offensive rating above 116.  The other?  The 2016-17 Golden State Warriors.

The offense is at historic rates, and the defense is slowly starting to come around.  Young players are finding their footing in the league, and Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are looking better than ever.

Patrick Patterson is finding his shot to go along with his defense, and even DeMarre Carroll is starting to look like the player the Raptors signed in 2015 as he makes his way toward full health.  We will even get to see what Jared Sullinger provides once he returns from injury.

The Raptors remain a far from perfect team, but they are under notice from the league’s elite.

 

Numbers Game: Tracking some positive Raptors trends – Raptors HQ

Joseph has broken out of his funk, and Patterson’s shot has been falling, and more time together as a unit ought to help any lineup. And some of it is probably just small sample luck. But these things certainly seem intertwined. DeRozan’s increased passing can only have helped his teammates find their shots, for example.

In the meantime, we’ve seen Joseph return to form defensively, once again being near the top of the team in DRTG over the past seven games (100.2 DRTG, third best on the team among regulars). And Jonas Valanciunas, who has struggled a bit offensively of late, has seen the team perform solidly enough with him on the court, with a DRTG of 103.6. Siakam, his improvement in the starting lineup noted above, has the best DRTG at 96.7, though minutes with garbage time units at the end of games has skewed his and Powell’s numbers (78.1 DRTG in only five games played in this stretch) a bit.

In any case, with DeRozan’s bench unit being so effective defensively, and Lowry’s unit always being good, and the starters playing so well of late, the team is looking much better overall, and it really shows over the past seven games. In that time, the team has posted a DRTG of 100.4, fourth best in the league in that time. Overall on the season the team defense now sits at 104.2, tied for 15th with the Mavericks.

Mitchell: Raptors can’t overreact after loss to Cavaliers – Video – TSN

Sam Mitchell explains why the Raptors don’t need to make any hasty decisions after their loss to the Cavaliers, and discusses what could be going wrong with Jonas Valanciunas’ game as of late.

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/BNsvi3QFJMX/

Free Association: Toronto Raptors quarterly report with Faizal Khamisa – Sportsnet.ca

The guys are joined by Sportsnet host Faizal Khamisa to discuss the Toronto Raptors at the quarter mark of the season, as well as what league-wide storylines they got right and wrong so far.

The biggest arguments are over the development of Jonas Valanciunas and if Terrence Ross or Patrick Patterson have been the Raptors third best player this season.

The only thing all three guys agreed on was that JD is the worst dressed guy out of the trio.

Five Things To Expect: 2nd quarter of Raptors’ schedule | Toronto Sun

Dwane Casey is a patient man, but he has his limits. He has gone from asking for a little more focus defensively, to demanding more defence with the threat of lineup changes to complimenting the defensive effort, but wanting a little more crispness. That’s all in about the span of the past two weeks and it’s been improving.

But teams shooting 50% or better will just not be tolerated and Monday night the Cavs were well beyond that number for most of the game.

Casey pointedly praised the effort level, but said mistakes are still being made on close outs (knowing who you have to get right into and who you can slack off on) and rotations and of course the pick-and-roll, where Casey is always looking for more.

With Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan setting the tone in terms of knowing that part of the Raptors’ game has to improve, it’s almost impossible that we won’t continue to see further progress defensively. The Raptors head into Thursday’s game with Minnesota tied for 15th in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) at 104.2.

There is still room to get better and with Casey at the helm, they will get there.

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/BNtHwuZgvIV/

Raptors coach Casey downplays Valanciunas’ struggles | Toronto Sun

I thought Lucas (Nogueira) did a little bit better job of guarding (Channing) Frye, which is a hard matchup for any (centre) in the league, not just Jonas and Lucas. He’s really a four playing the five and that’s why we decided to go small, that kind of got us going a little bit toward the end but, again, you give up something.”

At the same time as Valanciunas appears to be struggling, Nogueira’s stock seems to be on the rise.

Klay Thompson’s 60-point night a reminder of Warriors’ belief in him – The Vertical

Myers had known the Spurs were aggressively pushing for a trade into the Toronto Raptors’ fifth spot to draft Lithuanian center Jonas Valanciunas, a move the Warriors wanted to make themselves. Short of that deal, Myers had a sneaking suspicion that the Spurs were moving toward a Plan B: cutting a deal to bound over the Warriors’ 11th overall pick and take Thompson.

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/BNtHg6CgV5F/

Toronto Raptors Need to Start Patrick Patterson – Tip of the Tower

Astonishing because the lineup where you swap Siakam for Patterson is killing the league and is outscoring opponents by 25.6 points per 100 possessions. And although Patterson and co. are absolutely crushing teams with this five-man rotation, it’s only the third-most used lineup by the Raptors with 58:35 total minutes.

Patterson does play 29 minutes a game, but it’s from the end of the first quarter to halftime, with the process repeated in the second half. So Casey is relying on that starting lineup to tread water against the opponent’s starting five until Patterson can come in a rescue the team, much like a sixth man of Jamal Crawford or Manu Ginobli‘s ilk.

Casey is essentially treating  Patterson as a super sub. However, unlike those super subs previously mentioned, the Raptors don’t redesign the offense when he’s on the court and he isn’t a ball-dominant player.

In fact, Patterson is only averaging 7.3 points per game this season and only gathers a fistful of boards. He isn’t changing the fundamentals of how the team is run when he’s on the court – his playstyle is just better suited to coalesce with the starters than any other power forward on the roster.

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/BNsHRM4l-M6/

Toronto Raptors deserve respect as legitimate playoff threat in Eastern Conference – The Comeback

Everything is clicking for Toronto. The club’s depth is among the strongest in the league. Everybody in the rotation can contribute in a steady manner. But the Raptors aren’t without weakness.

Without a defined third scorer and starting Siakim, a rookie without much offensive touch, at the power forward, Toronto has little chance of overtaking Cleveland.

Case in point, the Raptors hung tough, but lost at home on Monday against the Cavaliers, 116-112. Toronto battled all night, down just one at halftime, but a poor third quarter sunk a comeback attempt. The Raptors can keep pace with the Cavs, but there’s a clear gap talent-wise. The Raptors simply don’t have an answer for LeBron, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, who combined for 86 points. DeRozan and Lowry tallied 55 points total, but only two other Raptors scored in double-digits. Siakim and Patterson aren’t equivalent to Love and whoever else Cleveland can bring in off its bench.

Another issue is that Toronto ranks 26th in defensive rebounding (31.7) and needs to acquire a legitimate rebounder and scorer in the frontcourt to take that next step. The perfect candidate might be available: Atlanta’s Paul Millsap.

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/BNsJ30ND9V2/

Player Designs – shop.realsports

Last season, your Toronto Raptors got busy and created their own hat designs to show off their street style.
This season, they’ve risen to the challenge again and produced 4 new limited edition styles to thank YOU, the North Side, for being the BEST fans.

You were there before we had a battle cry. You saw our potential before we even recognized it ourselves. Your presence is felt every time we step on the basketball court. And we wouldn’t have it any other way.

If you like the designs that you see, pick one up and rep it with pride. All net proceeds benefit MLSE Foundation and charities meaningful to the Raptors.

Did I miss something? Send me any Raptors-related article/video… or just to say hi 🙂 to rapsfan@raptorsrepublic.com