Sitting on the fence: Why I cant make up my mind about this team.

Its official, I need help. Serious, professional, help.

My problem is simple: as bad as this team plays, as horrible as the GM is, and as much as I swore I would never love another bad team after three decades of being a Red Sox fan (pre 2004)…I still get excited when Joey Graham shows flashes of toughness, when Jamario Moon blocks a shot from out of nowhere, when AP hits a fade away 3 from the corner, when CB4 sticks that 19 foot jumper, when JO throws down a 2 handed jam or when Andrea Bargnani dribbles. I know that the likelihood of these moments outlasting the “reality” is poor. More often than not, JO picks up 2 quick fouls, AP misses crucial free throws, Moon thinks he can shoot, Andrea looks lost, and CB4 takes a 3 pointer with a full shot clock in a close game (see Sundays loss to NO- 4th quarter-). And yet, I still love this team…but why?

I imagine that like most Raptors fans, I woke up this morning, unsure about what to expect any night against any team in the league. After all, the last two weeks have shown us many faces of the same beast. If we throw out the first month and a half of the season under Sam Mitchell and just look objectively at the Raptors under Triano, things don’t get any easier to understand. Because, well, first off, even though Mitchell is gone…his record remains. And so the Raptors who started the season 8-9 under Mitchell and have since gone 2-4 under Triano, and still find themselves 10-15 this morning with 7 games left to play before they ring in the New Year. You see the hard part for me is believing that this team can actually win 5 of them and remain in contention for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

I want to believe that this team is still the same team that I pegged to win 50 games and claim the 4 seed in the East this year. And two weeks ago, when the team was 8-7 before traveling out west to get spanked by the Lakers and humiliated in Denver, I wrote a post for Raps Fan and others to calm down, relax, and just believe in their home team. I mean things weren’t that bad. But since then, so much has happened- with the biggest issue being the firing of Mitchell and replacing him with Triano- that only 7 days ago- I took back my earlier blog that called for calm in Raptor nation and instead issued a notice to start panicking NOW!

But I can’t make up my mind as to which team the Raptors really are. I’m torn…between my heart and my eyes. My homerism wants me to believe that this team can still turn it around and win 40 of its remaining 59 games (at a clip of .750) to challenge for the top 4 seeds in the East. But my head tells me that this team will more likely win 25of its remaining games (at a clip closer to the .435 winning percentage it is sporting this season) and find itself in a battle for the 8^th seed and more likely than not sitting in the lottery draft instead of the playoffs..

And so here is why I’m torn- because they are NOT winning under Triano. And although the TV and radio guys spin it like this team is getting better under Triano- increasing its focus, changing little things one at a time, etc…..they still are losing games and will continue to loose games at a pretty intense clip up until the all star game. And yet, there are moments where I say… “you know what, that Leo Rautins is right- this is a team on the rise.” And after I put down the bottle and skip my next turn on the hookah, I’m left to wonder- “who are the Raptors of 2008-2009? And better yet, why should I keep believing in this team?

At times, we have been that team that runs and guns and takes top notch teams in the Western Conference like Portland or New Orleans to the brink- with tight defense, good shot selection, and an endless desire to get to the rim offensively and not settle for jump shots. And then, just as quickly as we look like a team on the rebound, we lay an egg for 5-7 minute stretch and let winnable games slip away (see Portland and New Orleans). SO far this season, as I pointed out in my column last week- this team has only won games against inferior opponents. A trend that continued last week when they beat Indiana and NJ (who has been playing over their heads a little bit this year).

So what comes next? Is there going to be a move? Colangelo keeps hinting that something could happen but if he isn’t going to deal Andrea then really what chips does he have to make something happen. Also, two of the best looking trading partners (CHA and PHO) both made big moves last week and well, come on, Jake Voshkul cant be the answer to all of our problems.

Well, all I can do now is get back to schedule to see what comes next.

If we take a look at the remaining games between now and the all star break here is what we see as games we should win and games we should loose.

Certainly there are some games here that I have marked as wins that they will loose and some games here marked as losses that they will win but this is still a very optimistic forecast. Even still, it has the Raps going 16-16 over their next 32 games and leaving them with a record of 26-29 heading into the final 27 games.

Does this seem accurate to other people? What are your thoughts on what to expect from here on out. Im a little at a loss for words here and I am seeking out guidance from the readers of RaptorsRepublic.com as to whether I should continue to believe that this team can turn it around or whether to believe that it is doomed. As I’ve said before, Triano may get Bosh’s nod of approval but so what. This team is better that the .430 ball it has played this season or the .250 ball it has played under Triano to date. And even if Triano is able to get his team to win 16 of its next 32 games- a team that plays .500 ball, barely scrapes into the playoffs and is gone in the first round after getting blown out by Boston, Cleveland, or Detroit- SHOULD NOT BE GOOD ENOUGH to keep my love and attention. SO why is it good enough for Colangelo?

Somebody send me some answers. Please.

As always, standing in the key, I’m the Dr. Ive got my feet planted and I’m planning on taking a charge.

Phdsteve