Game Day: Mavericks vs. Raptors – Offensive Juggernauts Square Off

As the Raptors prepare for another early season test against the Mavericks a plethora of sub-plots exist in this offensive showdown.

The most obvious is that Dallas (109.3 PPG) and Toronto (108.0 PPG) rank first and second in the Association for their offensive prowess.

There is the fact Dwane Casey came to the Raptors via Dallas where he functioned as the defensive coaching specialist to Head Coach: Rich Carlisle.

Plus there are a number of areas the teams will battle for supremacy:

better bench
fourth quarter dominance
most cohesive unit, 1-15
lowest turnovers
masters of the intangibles: blocks, steals, second-chance points etc

Then there is the on-going 3-year battle that has waged between Maverick big man Tyson Chandler and Raptor rising star Jonas Valanciunas. Though most would assume Chandler has owned this match-up, the truth is Valanciunas has had some of his best games versus the Mavericks’ center and will undoubtedly be dialed in tonight.

And finally, looking back at the 2013-14 season, December 20th, marks a pivotal date for the current Raptors as the overtime win in Dallas can be cited as the exact moment our young players began to believe in themselves. The following night in Oklahoma the Raptors won again and their record setting miracle season along with their new identity was cemented. For those of you who love stats consider: Toronto is 55-24 since the Rudy Gay trade for a 69% win share. Taking into account their 7-1 preseason raises that number to 62-25 for a 71% win share!

Comparing the Teams:

Taking a closer look at stats via ESPN and NBA.com proves daunting as for every one Toronto advantage, Dallas offers one in a different category.

Dallas has scoring (+1.3), rebounding (+2.4) and assists (+4.1) advantages. NOTE: in past four games Raptors rank top-10 in assists.

Toronto has advantages in ball protection (+0.2), steals (+1.0), point differential (+2.1) and defensively holding teams to 3.4 less PPG (or 2.3 less per 100 possessions).

One specific area which may provide an advantage for the home side will be how each team shoots and defends behind the arc. As we witnessed in the Hawk game Atlanta came out on fire hitting 8 of 13 for 61% however the Raptor adjustments at the half led to Atlanta only hitting 2 of 11 threes or 18% in the second half. For an offensive powerhouse like Dallas I expected them to be among the top 3-point shooters (33.2%), however Toronto connects at a more consistent rate (36.2%). Dallas make up for this by attempting 4.6 more threes per game resulting in one extra made 3-per game.

Mavericks’ 5-losses:

Review of the Mavericks 5-losses shows teams that hold Dallas under their 3-point average hold a distinct advantage. On the flip side Dallas is 29th at defending the three which bodes well for Toronto especially if Vasquez can carry over his hot shooting from Atlanta. Not surprisingly defense ruled the day as the 5-teams who beat Dallas all held them to 100 points or under and in the last 3-road games against teams with winning records Dallas averaged 39.2%, scoring just 94.7 points.

NOTE: score and 3-point % Dallas shot in each loss.

Spurs: 101-100 – 38.1%
Portland: 108-87 – 21.7%
Miami: 105-96 – 31%
Houston (without Howard): 95-92 – 17%
Indiana: 111-100 – 33.3%

In four of the five losses Nowitzki was held under his season average of 19.7 points.

The other trend that ran through all 5-losses was Dallas’ bench was held under their 37.9 point per game average

Strength of Schedule:

This area continues to dominate discussion surrounding the Raptors win record despite the fact they’ve showcased their ability to win regardless of the situation. And while I’d argue they’ve won despite who their schedule dictated I thought I’d provide a little ammunition for those fans looking to shed some light to the naysayers: John Hollinger has consistently ranked Toronto first in his daily ranking. He bases the SOS on the record of the teams played to date ranking Toronto 16th, but more importantly in the last 10 he ranks them as having faced the 8th most difficult opponents.

Positional Breakdown:

Guards: Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, vs Jameer Nelson, Monta Ellis

Whether you put Lowry and DeRozan in the conversation for best back court in the league or not you better not take them for granted. Few back courts can bring the versatility, scoring, intangibles and leadership displayed by Lowry and DeRozan. For my money Lowry has been by far the best guard in the East and continues to prove each outing how much he’s grown as a leader. DeRozan is learning to deal with the opposition’s additional game focus and continues to demonstrate growth via his ability to do other things when a team successfully limits his tools.

Ellis is one of the most creative guards in the Association fitting Carlisle’s style of play like a glove. It’s hard to imagine he ever played in Golden State watching how well he meshes with Dirk.

Edge: Raptors- I’ll re-iterate, Kyle Lowry is on a mission and does whatever it takes to be successful. He continues to operate as if knowing 5-seconds sooner than everyone else when the bomb will explode and acts accordingly.

Front Court: Jonas Valanciunas Amir Johnson, Terrence Ross vs. Tyson Chandler, Dirk Nowitzki, Chandler Parsons

This is where the key match-up lies, specifically between youngster Valanciunas and wily vet Chandler. As I noted above Valanciunas gets up for this type of challenge, especially when it features a more prototypical big. Last season Valanciunas faced Chandler three times and had two of his best outings of the season:

With added strength, knowledge and a new found confidence look for him to want to show Chandler how much he’s grown.

Dirk is potentially the best 7′ shooter the game has ever seen (apologies to Durant who’ll likely surpass his totals during his career), so Amir Johnson will have his hands full. Helping the cause will be Nowitzki’s disparity of shooting percentage facing winning teams 40.4% versus 59.8% against sub-500 teams.

Chandler Parsons has fit in well with his new team and Carlisle’s system, but I don’t see him doing much more than being a good addition so far. The second most intriguing battle is the one between Parsons and Ross. Will we get a 2-way performance from TRoss who has been scoring at a better clip since his hero Vince Carter graced the ACC and woke him up?

Edge: Dallas – I mean can you seriously bet against a guy like Nowitzki

Bench: Greivis Vasquez, Lou Williams, Patrick Patterson, James Johnson, Chuck Hayes (possibly Tyler Hansbrough) vs. Devin Harris, JJ Barea, Brandan Wright, Jae Crowder, Al Farouq Aminu

Phoenix is the top ranked bench, so the Raptors have already proven they can compete at that level. Dallas is no pushover at depth though, so expect our guards to continue to aggressively apply the pressure and whoever is rolling will get the extra minutes from Casey. Of greater concern will be whether our starting front court can keep Dallas’ bigs in check so we might see another masterful veteran positioning clinic from the Chuckster or if Hansbrough returns his energy could reap rewards for the home side. There is very little to differentiate between these two teams and their benches are no different, however I suspect the youth, variety and ability of the best 4-guard unit (that’s my opinion) in the league will cause headache and heartache for the Mavericks.

Edge: Raptors – with Johnson back healthy, Williams current shooting barrage, Patterson doing all the little things and Vasquez suddenly out of a scoring slump our bench is just beginning to realize how dominant they can be.

Defense:

Toronto is on a 6-game win streak so the odds of winning aren’t necessarily in their favor and Dallas has those 2-losses from last season to atone for, but at the end of the day it all comes down to defense. I’ll give 7th ranked Toronto the edge over Dallas who is tied for 13th on the defensive end (as per NBA.com). More importantly we’ve started seeing this team gel into a semblance closer to what we came to expect from them last season with new additions Johnson and Williams fitting into Casey’s schemes perfectly. Keep an eye on who controls pace as limiting Dallas’ possessions will also be critical to capture the win.

I often get asked why many believe DeRozan, Valanciunas and Ross have improved defensively. To that end, I found a great video example courtesy of Tim Legler which breaks down one defensive set.

Observing how much each individual moves in a single possession perhaps explains why the Raptors save this defensive intensity for fourth quarters and why it would be difficult to sustain over 48-minutes and still score over 100 points.

Vegas favors Raptors by 3.5 with O/U of 210. I say NEVER bet against a streak or a Raptor team who have something to prove.

Bits and Pieces: