Can Terrence Ross contribute? Can Amir Johnson stay healthy and produce when it matters? What is the Raptors crunch-time unit?
On Monday, my colleague Tim Chisholm argued, in the eloquent and excellent way that he does, that the Raptors no longer have anything to play for in the regular season. It’s a fine piece and yet another classic column by one of the most talented columnists in the Toronto sport writing scene. Follow the link above to read the piece, if you haven’t already.
But with respect to Tim, I have to disagree. While the final fifth of the season won’t change any truths that have bore out over the first 64 games, there are still plenty of unanswered questions in both the short and long run.
1. Can Terrence Ross return to form?
The predominant narrative surrounding Ross’s career is no longer defined by his athleticism and tantalizing potential. With every passing game, Ross’s 51-point outlier fades more and more into irrelevancy. And that’s a good thing.
But Ross, by virtue of the Raptors’ lack of shooting and depth at small forward, is still in position to significantly impact the Raptors’ short and long term outlook.
In the short run, the Raptors need Ross to be productive in order to stabilize the rotation. If Ross can adequately defend his position and serve as a 3-point spot-up threat, Dwane Casey can free up James Johnson to replace Tyler Hansbrough in the backcourt. A productive Ross can also give the Raptors the ability to play at least three shooters on the court at all times. Ross is also one of only two (along with DeRozan) reliable finishers on the fast-break and the Raptors’ only decent spot-up 3-point option. Plays like the one below are almost tailored exclusively for Ross. Without him on the court, such actions don’t exist.
In the long run, the Raptors need to make a decision as to whether or not to extend Ross. If Ross wets the bed for a second-consecutive playoff series, it will be a clear-cut indication to Masai Ujiri that a tangible upgrade on the wing is needed. However, if Ross can even manage to return to being a somewhat productive player, the Raptors’ need on the wing will be lessened, which might free up the Raptors to commit assets elsewhere this offseason.
Either way, Ross’s play over the final stretch and in the postseason will be tremendously important. He could be the answer, but right now, he’s a problem.
2. What’s the Raptors’ crunch-time unit?
Most playoff teams have a concrete idea of what they’ll do down the stretch. The Warriors will roll with Curry-Thompson-Barnes/Iguodala-Green-Bogut. The Grizzlies are trotting out Conley-Allen/Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol. The same applies for the Cavaliers, Hawks, Thunder. They have an identity, and when it comes down to crunch time, their best five-man unit is on the floor.
The Raptors don’t have an identity and they don’t have a closing unit. It’s a patchwork effort. They mostly play it by ear.
Lowry and DeRozan are crunch-time staples, but it’s all question marks from there. Usually, one of Vasquez or Lou Williams plays as the off-guard. But, if perimeter defense is an issue (and it usually is), James Johnson will play minutes at the three. But Johnson can’t shoot, so sometimes Ross plays as a compromise between reliable wing defense and floor-stretch. The frontcourt is anyone’s guess. Patterson is usually out there, but he’s played poorly for nearing a month. Amir Johnson usually flanks Patterson, but his rebounding is suspect for all the above reasons. Valanciunas is usually the odd man out, but he plays occasionally if defensive rebounding is a significant problem. Or, Casey goes small and only plays one big.
It’s never the same from game to game.
Part of that speaks to the Raptors’ strange and asymmetric roster. The Raptors’ top five players are, in no particular order, Lowry, DeRozan, James Johnson, Valanciunas and one of Patterson or Johnson. But such a lineup wouldn’t work because there isn’t enough spacing, especially with Lowry struggling to find his range with any kind of consistency.
Hopefully, Casey can find something that works before the season is over. With 18 games left to go, Casey is still shuffling lineups and rotations around, which, in all fairness, is tied to the Raptors losing nine of their last 10 games. But, with the schedule easing up over their final month of play, Casey can give whichever crunch-time lineup he settles on plenty of playing time to gel.
It would be nice to be the aggressor, rather than relying on counterpunching to get by in the postseason.
3. Can Amir Johnson stay healthy and produce when it counts?
The Raptors have moved from a top-10 defensive outfit to a bottom-10 club overnight, despite rolling over the same players, coach and system from last season.
A significant portion of their drop-off can be attributed to the rapidly decaying health of Amir Johnson.
Johnson’s decline is readily apparent by just watching him labor on the court. Johnson hits the deck on seemingly half of his possessions and wears a pained expression at all times. Perhaps the most telling sign: for a player who used to be characterized by his high activity level, Johnson’s movement is now careful and conservative, as if every step he takes subtracts from a finite allotment.
Defensive statistics, for all their supposed shortcomings, have picked up on Johnson’s decline. He ranks 24th among power forwards in defensive real plus-minus, down from 9th last season. His defensive rating rose from 104 to 107. Even the individual defensive statistical components are down. Johnson is rebounding and blocking shots at the lowest rate of his career.
And yet, the Raptors’ defense needs him to be productive (and therefore healthy) in order for Dwane Casey’s scramble scheme to have any shot of succeeding. So far, Johnson laboriously trudging across the court isn’t cutting it.
Occasionally, Johnson will still show flashes. Games where Johnson jumps and out-hustles his opponents are few and far between, but his effectiveness stands out. In those rare stretches in which Johnson is fully operational, he proves to be the Raptors’ missing piece.
That’s why Ujiri recently suggested the option of resting Johnson for a few games before the start of the playoffs. As currently constructed, the team needs Johnson at his best.
Masai also says they need Amir to be at best defensively. Might need rest like Lowry but got some at all-star break. Thinks he'll be fine
— Ryan Wolstat (@WolstatSun) March 10, 2015
More importantly, Johnson’s health holds ramifications for the Raptors’ offseason outlook. Valanciunas is not yet ready to be a defensive anchor (he’s a below-average defender, aside from guarding the basket at the moment) and Ujiri might have to ditch Johnson and find a more qualified (read: fully healthy) long-term replacement. The way things are going, a split seems inevitable, as written by Eric Koreen of the National Post.
In the meantime, the Raptors and Johnson are stuck trying to make it work. Will it? It’s unlikely. But a rested and healthy Johnson (if such a thing can exist) could have a significant say in the Raptors’ fortunes this postseason. And maybe, just maybe, if he plays well enough, the Raptors will feel compelled to re-sign their longest-tenured player.
