Last year the Raptors had the city abuzz as they roared into the playoffs for the first time in six seasons having nabbed the Atlantic Division Title. I’ve often referred to it as the magical season as seemingly nothing was impossible to the post Rudy Gay squad. Even down by double digits of that fateful game 7 with under 4 minutes remaining there was a belief the Raptors would mount another fourth quarter come back. We all know the story book ending didn’t prove to be happily ever after as Kyle Lowry‘s last second shot fell short ending the Raptors improbable year. And yet there was optimism for what lie ahead now that the young core had playoff experience and were hungry to taste more success.
Key free agent additions in the off season appeared to address at least two areas needing an upgrade: Lou Williams was a definite improvement over John Salmons and James Johnson was viewed to be a player who would address our defensive needs, specifically in guarding large shooting guards or small forwards. It was also believed there would be a natural progression from third year players Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross.
Lou Williams versus John Salmons Comparison:
(note: click charts for better view)
Although Ujiri hadn’t done much of anything to address our front court reserve needs optimism grew as the Raptors appeared to pick up right where they ended the 2013-14 season. Then November 28th, DeMar DeRozan got injured forcing Lowry to take on a heavier load. Initially the team continued their winning ways going 11-4. The shift in the season can almost be isolated to December 30th, in Portland when the pendulum swung in the opposite direction. Following that devastating loss Toronto went 1-5 (including the Portland loss) and then DeRozan returned.
They say it takes a player and the team approximately 5 games to get back in sync upon return so the 2-3 record justified that logic, especially when the team followed it up with a 6-game winning streak. Despite reckless losses to Milwaukee and Brooklyn the team appeared to be back on track entering the break with significant wins over the Clippers, Spurs and Wizards. Coming back from the break the Raptors looked like the November squad thrashing the Hawks in Atlanta, but followed it up with a 5-game losing streak to end the month.
Perhaps we can point to Lowry’s over use or Portland when he took some hard falls, however it was obvious he was worn out and could no longer pull the trigger to stop opposing teams’ runs with a critical field goal or by taking a momentum stopping charge. Comparing the captains there is a significant difference: without DeRozan the team went 12-9, but without Lowry the team is 2-6. While DeRozan has seen steady improvements in his production it isn’t translating into wins which highlights how important a healthy Lowry is to the team.
Since we have no idea how long Lowry will remain out (other than Masai Ujiri stating he would return) I decided to dive into the stats to see if I could pinpoint clues that could help direct their efforts in their final ten games of preparation.
Looking at the team by month the shifts aren’t huge other than February. What is interesting is the team actually improved in several categories during February except in the most important being point differential. During this time frame James Johnson was starting in place of Ross which improved our overall defense, but the team was scoring an average of ten points less and subsequently losing. March stands out because the Raptors are playing well offensively again but defensively have been at their worst. Obviously this points to the need for Casey to figure out a way to find a balance between the offense and defense.
Raptors Stats By Month:
Then I wondered if the shift had more to do with Casey’s reluctance to play James Johnson as it seems to many of us like he isn’t being utilized appropriately. Looking at his month by month production I was surprised he played in as many games as per the chart below.
James Johnson Monthly Production & Usage:
Review of Johnson’s numbers offers some interesting clues:
- When Johnson started in February the team weren’t scoring which is logical given DeRozan had returned and there was no floor spacing with only one (Lowry) 3-point shooter on the court.
- While the team was losing in February and had their worst plus/minus differential James Johnson was still performing on the plus side
- In March Johnson is playing less and is having his worst and only month registering a minus -3.2
- If I’d been asked to guess I would have sworn Johnson had missed 20 plus games given Casey’s inexplicable DNP CD, however the fact is he’s only missed 11 games and at least 2 or 3 of those were injury related.
Ross definitely serves the purpose of spacing the court and the team has seen an offensive surge since his return, but Casey needs to find the right balance of time for Johnson. It’s made no sense not to see him on the court more in specific games like the Milwaukee, Detroit or both Chicago losses. I’m not buying the “match-up” story Casey is trying to sell and while I recognize he might not be the right fit with the existing starters there is no reason not to be utilizing him more, especially in late game situations. Something around 20 to 23 minutes per game seems more realistic (especially heavier minutes in the fourth quarter).
Looking at the best lineups:
To get a better idea of the balancing act of players minutes and line-ups it should be noted the coaches have information at their disposal . Specifically the team can determine who provides their best offense, defense and combination via NBA.com (plus the Raptors would have people assigned to collect this data).
I decided to look at the most productive line-ups seeking any definitive resolution to the Raptors problems. The numbers are from nba.com and are based on points scored or allowed per 100 possessions. OR = Offensive Rating, DR= Defensive Rating and NR = Net Rating
Best Offensive Line-ups:
Lowry – DeRozan – Amir Johnson – Patrick Patterson – Ross: OR of 125.7, DR of 109.9 and NR of plus +15.8. (3rd best OR in NBA)
Greivis Vasquez – Williams – Ross – Tyler Hansbrough – Patterson: OR of 121.2, DR of 104.5 and NR of +16.8 (8th best OR in NBA)
Lowry – Vasquez – Ross – Amir Johnson – Valanciunas: OR of 117.7, DR of 120.4 and NR of -2.8 (19th best OR in NBA)
Note: Valanciunas only makes the third team and that line-up is the only one who posts a negative point differential
Worst Defensive Line-ups:
Lowry – DeRozan – Ross – Patterson – Valanciunas: OR of 100.9, DR of 129.8 and NR of minus -28.9 (2nd worst DR in NBA)
Lowry – Greivis – Ross – Amir Johnson – Valanciunas: OR of 117.7, DR of 120.4 and NR of minus -2.7 (9th worst DR in NBA)
Note: Lowry, Ross and Valanciunas are in both line-ups
Best Defensive Line-up:
Lowry – DeRozan – J Johnson – A Johnson – Valanciunas: OR of 96.5, DR of 85.6 and NR of plus +10.9 (9th best DR in NBA and only line-up in the top 50 of DR).
Analyzing the advanced stats by month also pinpoints some interesting trends:
- Toronto scored 100+ points in every month but February
- Notably the Raptors allowed the fewest points as well in February
- While everyone is thinking March is the worst month (albeit giving up 111.8 is far from ideal) their net rating isn’t as bad as February and this is mostly without Kyle Lowry
- Of the 8 losses the Raptors suffered this month, 6 were against quality teams, 4 against top 3 teams and 2 against teams most say have a chance to win the Championship: Spurs/OKC (assuming Durant returns).
- Notable in all the losses was at least one quarter where the team allowed a huge point differential
What can Raptors do to improve before playoffs:
The final ten games of the season will feature only one team above .500 (Houston), however six of the remaining opponents are still vying to capture a playoff seed or improve their rank (Boston x2, Charlotte x2, Miami and Brooklyn). Those 6 games versus desperate squads offers Toronto an opportunity to raise their defensive intensity versus less talented (but motivated teams) which in my opinion is better than playing them if they had no inspiration to win. It also offers the chance to build consistent habits and to gain some confidence and momentum heading into the post season.
We all long for the no quit, fourth quarter defensive monsters of last season and while it may be too late to plug all the holes there are some things that can be accomplished in the last 10 games of the regular season. Personally I’ve seen signs of last year’s squad in the second half versus Detroit, the first three quarters versus Chicago and for periods in each of the Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Cavaliers games. What appears to be the biggest issue is sustaining their effort for 48 minutes and doing that in consecutive games. This has to be a priority over the last ten games.
From my perspective it makes no sense that a squad could lose their ability to be a top ten defensive team when the only personnel changes actually improved the team. Rather, it seems the team isn’t doing the little things that made them successful. While we can argue the merits of coach Casey’s choices, the bottom line is he needs to improve his own performance, specifically in how he assigns minutes and his play calling. Terry Stotts may have been the offensive genius in Dallas prior to moving on to Portland, but didn’t Casey sit in on those meetings? Wasn’t he part of the Dallas team who beat Miami for the title?
There has to be a way to create specific plays for each of the core group and specifically for Valanciunas. We witnessed Terrence Ross utilizing screens in the past couple games akin to what DeRozan uses, so it can be done.
While many in the media as well as fans are calling for Casey’s head I’m beginning to wonder if this is some master plan by the powers that be to get the fourth seed. I recognize it would pit them against Washington who are built for the post season, but they is something to be said for match-ups. Look at Houston who’ve won 48 games yet they were swept by Golden State. By aligning themselves with the Wizards they may believe they have the best opportunity to extend their playoff run by avoiding Cleveland and Chicago. Watching the Hawks succumb to larger front courts tells me they aren’t a shoo-in for the Conference finals and perhaps the Raptors brass feel the same way.
Regardless, Casey is the one the heat is on and he needs to do several things if he wants to remain at the helm:
- Inspire the troops to play 48 minutes of defensive basketball
- Develop a variety of plays to end quarters and finish games
- Demand Lou Williams drives and or pass when closing quarters or game end
- Explain to DeMar DeRozan that forcing shots when a team expects it isn’t going to garner success
- Do a much better job of minute distribution including getting James Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas additional fourth quarter minutes
- Find a way to get the team to take early leads and remain focused, so the core group (read: Amir Johnson and Lowry should he return before season end) can be well rested heading to the post season.
Suffice to say, I’m not giving up on the Raptors or their ability to recapture their magic chemistry. I just wish the coach would stop making decisions which seems to be setting constant road blocks in their efforts to get there.
