There’s a couple things that are bugging me ahead of the playoffs, regardless of who the opponent is. Whether it be Milwaukee, Washington, Boston, or even Brooklyn. Each of these teams pose different challenges: Washington’s size, Milwaukee’s length, Boston’s sheer tenacity, and Brooklyn’s history. In the end, if I had to pick a team to play I’d select Milwaukee for no other reason than sheer lack of playoff experience, and nothing more.
The Raptors have a much larger margin of error when playing a team with no experience, rather than a team that knows how to prepare for the post-season. This can’t be understated because Dwane Casey, despite being a championship assistant coach, is quite green as a playoff head coach. If he’s able to get outwitted by a rookie head coach last season, there’s no telling what Brad Stevens might do to him in the vacuum of a playoff series. In the same vein, Randy Wittman (hated by 90% of Wizards fans) is probably a good matchup for Casey, not because of our 3-0 record against them (two of them were very tight games), but because Casey has a higher margin of error when it comes to in-game decision making.
Winners of 4 of 6, the Raptors have some momentum ahead of the playoffs. The main positive is that over the last 10 games, DeMar DeRozan is averaging 24 points, 6 rebounds, 4.6 assists on 45% shooting, while hitting 39% from three.
| Stat | Last 10 Games | Rest of Season |
|---|---|---|
| MIN | 38.5 | 34.2 |
| FG% | 45.1 | 39.9 |
| 3P% | 38.9 | 22.6 |
| FT% | 84.3 | 82.6 |
| REB | 6 | 4.3 |
| AST | 4.6 | 3.2 |
| PTS | 24 | 19 |
This is easily the most positive trend that’s happening right now, but despite DeRozan’s brilliance, in this stretch the Raptors clutch offense ranks in the bottom-third in most categories. This is what scares me. There’s a single point of failure in the Raptors offense right now and it’s DeMar DeRozan. We’re all hoping that Kyle Lowry comes back healthy and starts playing in his November-form, but that’s unrealistic. There needs to be some diversity in our offense, and the recent efforts of having Lou Williams man the point are steps in the right direction. I was thinking the Raptors might not have enough time to integrate Williams fully into that role, until I realized that having less time to prepare doesn’t really matter as Casey’s unlikely to effectively tweak any kind of setup. So it’s probably, as weird as it sounds, quicker to let Lou be Lou at the point, instead of actually coach Lou.
The Raptors, to their credit, have been trying to diversify their offense in baby steps. You’ve seen more of Terrence Ross handle the ball, but his passing is so poor, that relying on him to evaluate a shot decision against a pass one, and execute on it correctly is a low probability event. There’s been a slight more focus on James Johnson’s drives to the rim, and he’s been given a chance to use that crossover of his
The Raptors have also been running the pick ‘n roll more, but not nearly enough given that they have Amir Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas, and the underrated Tyler Hansbrough, all of whom are able to finish. They’re 26th in the league for running pick ‘n rolls where the roller gets a return, with the play featuring only on 5.5% of possessions. On the other hand, they’re ranked 6th in terms of running pick ‘n rolls (18% of plays) where the ball-handler retains the ball. Basically, either no-one is rolling or the ball-handler isn’t giving it up. I suspect what has happened is that the enthusiasm for big men to roll has diminished because our wings aren’t willing passers. This is a correctable problem which would give the offense a different look, and would allow the weak side to get weaker, as teams will help to protect the rim, in turn allowing guys like Terrence Ross (who have been starved for space), get more looks.
The defense remains a mess with it being unable to stop any kind of dribble penetration, and help schemes out of whack. There’s nothing you can do to fix that at this point, and any personnel tweaks and subs will have minimal ROI. That’s another reason facing Milwaukee (or even Boston) might be better because those teams, though they play hard, aren’t very disciplined offensively and are liable to take quick shots, and let the Raptors off the hook. Remember, Washington has experience winning playoff series and they’ve shown they can flip a switch for the post-season, something the Raptors, of any era, have not been able to do.
Other than minor tweaks, the larger integration here will be the return of Kyle Lowry. There hasn’t been a stretch this season where DeRozan and Lowry have both played their best basketball at the same time. They’ve taken turns being great when the other one is out, and now our hopes rely on them both being great together. There are no easy answers here. Nothing is given and every playoff opponent poses a unique matchup, but ultimately it’s up to the Raptors to tweak what’s under their control and hope that they run into either a distracted, or inexperienced team.
Stats courtesy NBA.com
