So we’ve previewed the roster top to bottom, and we have a basic idea of what the starting 5 is going to look like. Ahead of tonight’s first tilt, a lingering question in many of our minds remains though – how does Dwane Casey plan to use his bench pieces to supplement the starters? With only a few media interviews and 11 new faces in training camp, predicting the core bench rotation seems a bit murky at this stage– but we’ll try our best.
With a pledge to give Jonas more touches in the fourth quarter for his improved free throw shooting apparently, the starting 5 could likely be the finishing 5 on many nights. I’ll pencil in Patterson, given his recent open statement of wanting to start; something we’d only expect him to say if he knew he had it in the bag.
Projected Starters
PG – Kyle Lowry – Pilates god
SG – DeMar DeRozan – Contract king
SF – DeMarre Carroll – JYD shooting 3s
PF – Patrick Patterson – 3s, 3s, and possibly only 3s
C – Jonas Valanciunas – Fourth quarter beware
ICYMI: Patrick Patterson’s Media Day interview
Starting to hear DeMar and DeMarre’s names often and together every game this season might be a little much, but hopefully their impact on the court together will make up. DeMar finally gets to play alongside a solid rebounding defender at the wing, to compensate for some of his shortcomings in those areas. Terrence Ross was an occasionally versatile defender, but a clear regression in his third year exposed the fact that playing out of his natural position at the 3, and against opposing starters, was simply too overwhelming.
That leaves the following group as the likely rotation bench squad for the Raptors, in order of predicted usage, subject to matchup/foul-trouble/injury considerations. Mind you, this is very difficult to predict this early, but it’s probably our best guess given the history and style of these players.
– Cory Joseph – PG
– Terrence Ross – SG/SF
– James Johnson – SF
– Luis Scola – PF
– Bismack Biyombo – PF/C
– Delon Wright – PG
– Norman Powell – SG
– Anthony Bennett – PF
– Bruno Caboclo – SF
– Lucas Nogeuira – PF
Exactly what we’ll be getting out of this bench is completely unknown and quite possibly the biggest reason why predicting the Raptors chances in the east is so difficult. The starting lineup will likely have a similar or slightly higher net efficiency as last year, given a slight potential downgrade at the PF position (losing Amir), offset by an upgrade at the SF position (getting DeMarre). But Dwane Casey can only be an educated (let’s hope) guessing man in the science behind figuring out the dynamics of the bench rotation.
The Bench Last Year
Behind a shaky defense, the second unit for the Raps was heavily reliant on a steady diet of Lou Williams, Greivis Vasquez and Patrick Patterson 3-pointers in 2014/15. While James Johnson and Tyler Hansbrough provided added toughness and energy off of the bench, the skill level was simply not enough to keep up with opposing second units on most nights, and especially in the playoffs.
Here’s a breakdown of Dwane Casey’s bench last year:
| Raptors Bench Player Breakdown – 2014/15 | ||||||||||
| Players | GP | MIN | FG% | 3P% | FT% | REB | AST | TOV | PTS | +/- |
| Patrick Patterson | 81 | 26.6 | 44.9 | 37.1 | 78.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 8 | 3.1 |
| Lou Williams | 80 | 25.2 | 40.4 | 34 | 86.1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 15.5 | 3.7 |
| Greivis Vasquez | 82 | 24.3 | 40.8 | 37.9 | 75.8 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 9.5 | 0.9 |
| James Johnson | 70 | 19.6 | 58.9 | 21.6 | 65.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 7.9 | 2.1 |
| Tyler Hansbrough | 74 | 14.3 | 52.1 | 14.3 | 69.8 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 2.6 |
| Chuck Hayes | 29 | 8.8 | 47.8 | 0 | 54.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Landry Fields | 26 | 8.3 | 48.8 | 50 | 83.3 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.8 | -3.1 |
| Greg Stiemsma | 17 | 3.9 | 75 | 0 | 50 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | -1.6 |
| Lucas Nogueira | 6 | 3.8 | 25 | 0 | 50 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1 | -1.8 |
| Bruno Caboclo | 8 | 2.9 | 33.3 | 66.7 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.3 | -3.4 |
Contrary to common belief, it was actually Patrick Patterson that led the bench in minutes, and in some ways, Patman was another sixth man candidate for this team. Shooting over 37% from 3 and about 45% from the field, Patterson, while offensively more limited, was a more efficient and versatile option than Williams. He also proved himself to be a stronger on-the-ball and help defender. He was often part of the finishing lineup for Casey that featured Lou Williams, Amir Johnson, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan alongside.
The reality was that when Lou Williams was good, he was really good. Especially early in the season.
There was a period in November and early December where Lou could do no wrong. Dwane Casey’s heavy usage of Lou Williams both early in games, and late in the fourth quarter was a confident statement that most teams overlooked, and one that paid off early in the season. However, it was this early season success that seemingly made him lazy as an offensive coach, especially at end-of-quarter or end-of-game moments.
4th Quarters
No worries – we the fourth right? Not really.
| Raptors 4th quarter Bench Players Ratings and Usage (min 20 games) | ||||||
| Players | GP | MIN | OffRtg | DefRtg | NetRtg | USG% |
| Lou Williams | 80 | 8.6 | 112.2 | 106.2 | 6.1 | 26.3 |
| Greivis Vasquez | 81 | 7.6 | 105.5 | 105 | 0.5 | 19.9 |
| James Johnson | 57 | 7.7 | 112.3 | 102.5 | 9.8 | 16.7 |
| Landry Fields | 20 | 2.9 | 78.7 | 114.1 | -35.5 | 15.9 |
| Patrick Patterson | 80 | 8.6 | 111 | 104.4 | 6.5 | 13.1 |
| Chuck Hayes | 20 | 5.4 | 108.2 | 109.2 | -1 | 12.6 |
Casey used Lou Williams for the majority of fourth quarters (9 minutes/game), and Williams took over 26% of the shots available to the team during that frame. For a bench player, that’s a lot. Moreover, when he played that much and shot that much (primarily in isolation), teams started to easily pick it up and prepare defensive schemes accordingly. If bench reliance in the fourth quarter may not be as big of a factor this year (at least with Jonas’ sub it might not), it forces Casey’s hand in having to play his bench players efficiently from quarters 1-3. More importantly, it means that he will have to actively seek out bench players that are fit to play in the fourth quarter on that night, as opposed to defaulting to Lou or Patterson. In other words, he’ll be forced to think more long and hard about his bench rotations on a nightly basis. And with a team option on Casey’s contract looming, the interesting nature of our roster, is that it gives Masai Ujiri a great opportunity to see what Casey’s made of; and this time, with an assortment of defensive talent for him to work with.
The Bench This Year
It’s hard to predict where Coach Casey will go, but the first logical conclusion is to decrease Lowry and DeRozan’s minutes, coming off of a season where both played heavy minutes and suffered injuries majorly impacting the team. This means Joseph and Ross are the likely candidates to play heavy bench minutes, with Luis Scola or James Johnson to be the second or first off of the bench in the case that Jonas (more probable) or DeMarre get in foul trouble early. Norman Powell is unlikely to see regular time, unless Terrence Ross isn’t able to fill his bench role of scoring 8-15 efficient points a night, with solid defensive performances (something more likely than last year, given he’ll be playing his natural position more and facing second units as opposed to starting lineups). The same goes for Delon Wright – if Cory Joseph plays his role, hard to see the rook getting a solid rotation spot.
If defense at the 4/5 spots struggles (probably the only spots where we have a glaring deficiency with Amir gone and Jonas still unproven as a low-post defender and rim-protector), the likely candidates to see time are Luis Scola and Bismack Biyombo. With Bismack’s scoring and playmaking weaknesses, the more likely go-to for Casey will be Luis Scola on most nights.
Toronto Raptors – 2015/16 Projected Depth Chart and Rotation
Another interesting decision on Casey’s radar will be his usage of Anthony Bennett, Lucas Nogeuira and Bruno Caboclo, the fringe bench players each of whom could either be a reasonable rotation player in the regular season, or a D-League regular. One would imagine that with each having at least 2 years of experience at this stage, they are past the development phase, and into the experimental phase. Is it time to throw them in the fire? Yet another slate for Dwane Casey to leave his mark on.
The Raptors were good 2 years ago for their defense, and last year, with virtually the same roster plus Lou Williams, for their offense. This year, with defensive-minded bench players such as Cory Joseph, Bismack Biyombo, and Luis Scola, the decisions for Dwane Casey to make will be plenty. Plenty to talk about for the fans – let the games begin.
