It’s almost time for the regular season to get underway and, as with every year, there remain more questions than answers. That’s fine, because the league would be a boring one if the preseason answered everything. The questions surrounding the Toronto Raptors maybe are fairly micro – we know they’ll be good-ish in the macro – but they’re questions nonetheless.
To help answer the questions surrounding the Raptors, I called on our entire staff – as well as Jared Dubin of Hardwood Paroxysm (and much more) for an outsider’s perspective – to tackle the 10 most pressing questions about the 2015-16 Raptors. The first five can be found here, and the second five are below.
6. Will Dwane Casey finish the season as the Raptors’ head coach?
William Lou (yes, we got him for the roundtable; prayer-hands emoji): Finish the season? Yes, unless the whole thing goes up in flames. I really can’t see him being retained past this season. Generally speaking, coaches are hired to be fired. Casey is a good man, but he’s been here forever.
Tim Chisholm: Probably. It would have to be a pretty poor start to fire him mid-season, and given all the changes he’s had to make this season he needs to be afforded some time to fully integrate them. If the issues that have driven fans nuts were enough to get him fired then he’d have been fired after the end of the last season. Destabilizing the squad mid-season is highly unlikely.
Tamberlyn Richardson: Who knows! They did bring in assistants Andy Greer of Chicago’s Thibodeau defensive regime (and Rex Kalamian from Oklahoma’s offense) so a potential replacement is in place, but my gut says he stays. Caveat: If the Raptors stumble out of the gate in their horrid early schedule, all bets are off.
Zarar Siddiqi: Yes. But his contract will not be renewed. He’s not very good dealing with the younger players on the team, and Masai Ujiri can’t possibly be impressed with his tactical showings. This is a make-or-break year for Casey in Toronto, he’s gotten his wish of getting the types of players he wants, and now he has to make them produce. I don’t think his and Ujiri’s expectations will be aligned.
Michael Holian: This situation will get messy, as there promises to be plenty of times a change is clamored for, yet again. I wouldn’t put it past Masai to make a change even during a successful run, but if the end result is another high-seed playoff berth, look for extension talk to become a point of discussion. Prepare for more puzzling in-game adjustments and beating around the bush press conferences lasting the entire year. Jeff Van Gundy and Kevin Ollie are welcome thoughts, but the answer to the Casey question is Yes. Let’s see what he can do with “his kind of weapons” before the uproar heats up.
Blake Murphy: Yes. I don’t much see the point in axing a coach midway unless there’s a clear replacement, and while one of Greer, Nurse, Murmuys, or Kalamian may be Ujiri’s preferred succession plan, I doubt a change gets made mid-schedule, barring a catastrophic start. The roster is much more suited to Casey’s preferred style now, and it would have made far more sense to make a coaching change in the offseason, if one were imminent.
Matt Shantz: If the season is a nightmare after 30 games or so, then no one on the team is safe, and that includes Casey. That being said, I expect that Casey makes it through the season as head coach in Toronto, but this will be his last season behind the Raptors’ bench.
Jared Dubin: Yes.
Sam Holako: No.
7. What are your expectations for Jonas Valanciunas, statistical or otherwise?
Tim Chisholm: I don’t expect much of a statistical jump from Valanciunas this season. I think that we’ve got a pretty good sense of who he is as a player at this point, and he’s a fairly solid post scorer and rebounder that struggles with mobility, passing and defense. I think he’ll see a minutes bump this season and that could start to highlight the limitations of his game. He needs to take the next step as a passer if he wants to take the next step as an NBA player (yes, I think passing more so than defense).
Michael Holian: In order for my expectations to be met, JV has to receive the proper opportunity to shine. Just over 26 minutes per game simply won’t cut it anymore, nor will continuing to shelter him from fourth quarter situations. It’s time to take to the good with the bad and truly let him learn on the job. A thin frontline has now changed those thoughts into a set of expectations. Though when the Raps go small for extended stretches, JV will once again take a backseat, that’s just the nature of today’s NBA. And I think we can all live with that. What we can’t stand for is his Per-36 numbers continuing to be treated with ignorance. All of which should be expected to go up. But as always, his footwork, lack of an outside shot, along with his turtle-like vision will hinder any kind of giant leap.
William Lou: Let’s go 13 points, nine rebounds, and 1.5 blocks on 56-percent shooting in 29 minutes per game. I can see him ditching the face-up game and going back to his trusty pump fake + sweeping right hook combo. Not expecting much of an improvement on either end.
Blake Murphy: Jared and I discussed this in-depth after Valanciunas’ extension. My thoughts remain unchanged.
Tamberlyn Richardson: Was his stunted defensive growth his fault or Casey’s system? Rubbing the genie lamp my three wishes for JV are:
• Spends time on the floor at closing time helping build his confidence…
• Resulting in decisive versatile offense including 10-12-foot shots. Hey, he’s a solid 78% FT shooter…
• Leading to him averaging 17 ppg, 10 rpg and 1.8 bpg.
Sam Holako: I expect that if he gets the ball more, pump fakes less, that good things will happen. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be 15pts 10rebs this season with the hero’s having been shipped out.
Matt Shantz: My hope is that Jonas gets at least two-to-three more shots per game, while limiting his pump-fakes to two per-possession. I think the more conservative defense will allow Jonas to play in the fourth quarter and will increase his impact on that end of the floor. I think his extension has the chance to be an absolute steal, and this year he begins to show a more well-rounded game.
Zarar Siddiqi: 14 points, 10 rebounds, and 50-percent shooting. At the minimum. The guy has to finish his put backs and pick ‘n rolls. The time is now for this guy and if he can’t make the next step this season, I’d start doubting whether he’ll ever do it. I would like to see him become more confident and decisive, regardless of how his minutes are managed by the coach (which I know will be controversial again).
8. Are you ready for Norm?
William Lou: Norm f***s with Lil B, so I f***s with Norm.
Blake Murphy: I’m a UCLA fan who was solely responsible for RR’s summer league coverage. You could say I’m ready.
Zarar Siddiqi: Yup. Will crack the rotation before Christmas.
Matt Shantz: Norm!!!! I am thrilled with his selection in the draft and could see him working his way into a solid contributor. That being said, he will likely need some seasoning in Mississauga early in the year. The hope is that he can show enough of his natural ability (great potential on defense, incredible athleticism, and a good feel for the game), while also refining his jump shot (just 39 percent from the floor in preseason, zero percent from three). He could be a late season call-up and challenge Ross for minutes in the backcourt.
Tim Chisholm: Normal Powell is destined to be this year’s version of James Johnson. Everyone’s imaginary version of him is going to trump the actual version of Terrence Ross that the Raptors are going to trot out, and that is going to lead to a chorus of fans clamouring for him to unseat Ross, regardless of how prepared he is for regular NBA minutes. I am more excited for him next year, after a year of seasoning and working on his jumper.
Sam Holako: Groan…
Michael Holian: More than ready, I’m downright giddy. It’s just positive after positive when it comes to Stormin’ Norman, and a blast to watch his critics eat their negativity so far. It’s easy to root for a player who immediately after being drafted was pegged for D-League employment only to force his way into the rotation conversation. And let’s just say if DeRozan fails to evolve as we hope, an episode of Cheers is right around the corner. For you new schoolers, that reference simply takes Powell’s athletic (and poised) ability on offense, mixing it with his dirty-work mentality on defense, then eventually having it lead to him becoming a household name. At least around these parts.
Tamberlyn Richardson: Pow POW. I love his tenacity and those arms – – that reach. I worry a little his desire to score sometimes overtakes his I.Q. of when he should pass, but you have to love his compete level.
9. What is your biggest concern about the Raptors as currently constructed?
Matt Shantz: Every team is susceptible to injury, and any injury sustained to the Raptors could have a larger impact than it would on many other teams. The end of the bench is effectively a D-League team of Wright, Powell, Bruno, Bennett, and Bebe, with every player 23 or under. Any injury to a regular rotation player would mean minutes for young players that just aren’t ready yet.
Jared Dubin: A tie between “the front court” and “defense,” which are interconnected.
Blake Murphy: Bench scoring, and depth in general. The rotation is probably only nine-deep right now, the team doesn’t have a reliable power forward, and the second unit is going to be trusting a somewhat unproven Joseph (who I’m high on), an ineffective Ross, and a struggling, one-dimensional Patterson for offense. Casey’s long been a proponent of the “hockey change,” and I think that would be death this year.
Kiyan Sobhani: The bigs, and how they seemingly don’t complement each other – particularly in the second unit. The Biyombo – Scola pairing will be intriguing, and potentially painful offensively. Patterson looks rattled. That may have been a premature or unfair statement to make, but the fact that PatMan hasn’t taken this opportunity to cement his place as a starter and run away with it is worrisome. If he can’t do it in this situation – where basically the entire organization is giving him the keys to do so – will he ever be able to? Patterson needs to shed the idea of being an unselfish basketball player for some time and just dominate at hitting the long-range bomb. He has the shooting percentage to really thrive at that position alongside Valanciunas.
Sam Holako: The big fat hole at power forward.
William Lou: It’s still a team built entirely upon Lowry’s talents. DeRozan occasionally rises to the challenge, but otherwise, the team needs Lowry to play like a superstar to succeed. Granted, Lowry is capable of that, but how many teams built around a lone superstar point guard find success in the postseason?
Tim Chisholm: Well, let’s see: they have no starting power forward, no backup small forward and Terrence Ross is their only bench scorer. I think all of these issues are correctable by Masai Ujiri and are far from issues that will torpedo the season, but I think there are one too many issues for me to start penciling in a 50-win season or a trip to the second round.
Zarar Siddiqi: There’s not enough efficient scoring from SG and DeRozan takes a ton of shots. This needs to be resolved by either a) DeRozan improving, or b) DeRozan getting moved. We can’t have status-quo or we’ll always be pedestrian.
Tamberlyn Richardson: Perhaps DeMar DeRozan is simply allowing his team to gel, but watching him in preseason his iso-ball play doesn’t seem to fit the new scheme which presumably is increased ball/player movement to create shots. Then again they ranked seventh in differential and the offense should come. Who starts at power forward is the biggest concern as Scola is perfect in the bench role, but Patterson hasn’t looked to be the right fit or even like himself for that matter. Here’s hoping Cory Joe continues to build Anthony Bennett’s confidence and he surprises everyone by turning into the PF his top draft selection projected.
10. How many wins will the Raptors finish with? More importantly, will they win a playoff series?
Zarar Siddiqi: I’m hoping 50 and a two-seed. I’m fearing 44 and a five-seed. If they face any one of Cleveland, Chicago, Washington, or Miami, they’re toast. If they face someone like Milwaukee, they have a chance. I’m going to go with a first-round exit, just so I can temper my expectations.
Tim Chisholm: I’m going with 47 wins and a ‘no’ to a series win unless there are mid-season trades to ameliorate at least one of the aforementioned problems.
Jared Dubin: Somewhere between 43 and 48. I think they may have more talent than last season, but it might not fit together quite as well. I’m particularly worried about the front court defense without Amir Johnson on hand. Jonas really needs to take the next step for this team to have even an average defense, and I’m not sure he’s ready for that just yet. The offense, though, should be good enough to carry them to the completely irrelevant Atlantic Division crown.
Matt Shantz: Barring major injuries, I think the Raptors match last season’s 49 wins. We have the added benefit of division games against Philadelphia, New York (time to improve our draft pick!), Brooklyn, and an improved Boston team. We are no longer guaranteed home court, but I think Raptors finish fourth in the East, and win a seven-game series for the first time in franchise history.
Tamberlyn Richardson: Argh, I hate this question. I’m usually better at predicting after seeing a portion of games played to see how the Raps are gelling and how everyone else is playing. The fan in me wants to say they finally get 50, but I’ll say 45 with a caveat: If the Raptors reach their first six-game home stand (20 games in) and are at or above 500, they’ll win 50.
Michael Holian: 44 victories. Good enough for a sixth place conference finish, if we’re judging by last year. A partly selfish complaint of mine was the contingent of fans who held the record-setting number of 49 as some kind of notion that all of the noticeable weaknesses this team had should’ve been given a pass. Perhaps I should learn to enjoy the moment more, but I’m sticking to my guns of what the second part of the question tells us. The win column pales in comparison to progressing in the postseason. With so many new factors needing to come together, tough sledding should be expected early on, but that just means the Raps will be able to work their way to a second-half cohesiveness and this time be ready to participate in the playoffs. The last thing we want repeated is for this squad to get too comfortable with their status quo. Which WILL finally result in an opening round celebration. All being opposites of last season. They can attract, even in basketball.
Sam Holako: 50 wins; the benefits of living in the East! Depending on who they play, they should win a series against any of the Heat, Bucks, Pacers, Pistons.. easier to say anyone but the Bulls, Cavs, and potentially the Hawks.
William Lou: 48 wins. They beat the Washington Wizards in the first round before getting swept in the conference semifinals.
Blake Murphy: 44 wins, good for fifth in the East. Unfortunately, they bow out in the first round once again. This seems negative, and I do like this year’s team better than last year’s (especially in terms of how to push this group to the next level), but the middle of the East is better and it’s unclear if the Raptors are going to have any particular strength they can lean on. They’ll win the division again (is that why they’re using “Back to Back” as entrance music?) and put up more of a fight in the playoffs, but that’s it.
