It’s not quite a homecoming for Amir Johnson on Friday with the game in Boston, but it’s going to be incredibly weird to see the new Celtics’ big man in anything other than Toronto Raptors colors. Departed in free agency thanks to a two-year, $24-million deal that the Raptors couldn’t, in good conscience with the current direction, match, Johnson leaves not only questions at power forward but enormous holes in the hearts of Raptors fans.
This sounds like hyperbole, but tell me you won’t miss him the first time he crushes someone with a vicious screen, or when the Toronto Zombie Walk goes off without a Johnson appearance. It’s worth re-visiting William Lou’s goodbye to Johnson from July.
And while it’s only game two of 82, there are some minor stakes Friday, other than DeMar DeRozan holding bragging rights over his long-distance BFF. Head coach Dwane Casey can tie Sam Mitchell as the franchise’s all-time winningest coach with a victory over the Celtics, something he doesn’t seem to care much about but is also not a bad line item to have on the resume as a lame duck.
Casey’s record stands at 155-158 – sadly, that .495 mark is the best in franchise history – while Mitchell finished with a 156-189 record.
So, yeah, do it for the coach. Or do it to get one up on Amir. Or do it because it may actually matter for the division crown later in the season.
Raptors @ Celtics, 7:30 p.m., Sportsnet One
This is normally where we’d compare the teams to date, but it’s game two of the season. We still don’t know much of anything. It’s a pair of 1-0 clubs, with the Raptors coming off of an ugly but spirited victory over the Pacers and the Celtics having cruised to a 17-point win against the 76ers.
The Raptors’ game probably revealed more than the Celtics’ given the opponents, but we know a bit about Boston, at least stylistically. They were a top-five team in pace last season and played up-tempo once again in the preseason – a decent, if flawed harbinger of regular season pace – so despite their options down low, which also stands to make rebounding an area of strength, they’ll be on the hunt for early-clock looks.
Friday should be quite the diversion from Wednesday in terms of lineup usage, as the Celtics are likely to have two traditional bigs on the floor for most of the game. Jonas Jerebko and Jae Crowder can play a smallish-four, but with five mouths to feed in the frontcourt, it’s likely the Raptors will be the ones dictating smaller lineups, if they occur at all.
Celtics Rundown
Projections for the Celtics were all over the place in the preseason, and the reason why is an interesting basketball thought experiment. Boston employs almost no bad basketball players. They also lack a star, they have a leaky defensive frontcourt on paper, they’re young, and they (only?) won 40 games in a weak Eastern Conference a season ago. But over 82 games, not having bad players is pretty important, especially in the East.
How you value depth and a lack of holes will determine your mileage with this squad, but I saw projections ranging from 38 wins to 51, with pretty much every point hit in between. And yes, that included some nods for the Atlantic Division crown.
Brad Stevens is a terrific head coach who brings the level of the team’s defense up. They ranked 12th in defensive efficiency a season ago and should be even better this time around. Marcus Smart is a terror at multiple positions, Avery Bradley is a quality defender, Crowder is a DeMarre Carroll Lite of sorts, and Johnson adds some savvy quarterbacking to the interior. The aggression of the perimeter defenders can also help mask some of the defensive limitations of the bigs, not dissimilar to how improved perimeter defense is allowing the Raptors to get more conservative with Jonas Valanciunas’ defensive role.
Offensively, the Celtics will look to shoot early, and they’ll hoist up a fair number of threes. The latter isn’t an area they’re strong in, but Stevens seems to favor earlier, high-efficiency shots. Somewhat surprisingly, the Celtics got almost no scoring off of drives against a Sixers team with generally poor perimeter defense, with NBA.com data indicating the Celtics scored nine points and made just five passes off of 19 drives. That’s not something I expect to continue to such an extreme degree, especially with Thomas around and Smart looking more comfortable as a drive-and-kick distributor in the preseason.
Injury Report
Toronto: DeMarre Carroll “can’t let one little elbow keep me out”
Boston: R.J. Hunter (illness) probable
Relevant Quotes
DeRozan on missing Amir Johnson (from Monday): Oh yeah, that sucks.
Dwane Casey on nearing Raptors’ coaching record (Thursday): The only thing I’m worried about is the Boston Celtics and our offence running at a faster clip, a faster pace.
Patrick Patterson on shaking off preseason rust (Wednesday): Pre-season I was just too passive — just learning the new plays, new offence, my new teammates, just getting comfortable. Transition to the starting lineup and the next day I’m coming off the bench.
Amir Johnson on leaving (Thursday): They did talk to me, but they obviously chose a different route. I really had no idea with free agency what was going to happen. I just had no clue. But I like the situation I’m in now. It was just the best decision for me and my family, so that’s all that was in my head.
Evan Turner on birthdays (sorry Zubes):
Evan Turner doesn’t love birthdays: “Not to be too hipster about it, but if you’re going to be nice to me one day a year, my life sucks.”
— Jay King (@ByJayKing) October 27, 2015
Positional Breakdown
PG: Lowry, Joseph, Wright vs. Smart, Thomas, Rozier
This is kind of an awesome matchup at the point. Smart is a thrill to watch, and he’s a terrific defender who is going to give Lowry trouble. The Celtics can also trot out what’s essentially a three-guard lineup with Smart at the two and Bradley at the three, one the Raptors can match up with thanks to a Lowry-Joseph-DeRozan line. Both teams are likely to play two bigs the entire game, but there could still be some interesting lineup quirks one-through-three. Thomas is the toughest check on the Celtics, and the Raptors probably won’t ask their bigs to hedge out much on those tough Johnson screens. Instead, it’s going to be on Lowry and Joseph to force Thomas into mid-range attempts and keep him out of the paint. If Rozier plays, it could be a fun few minutes if only because he drew Lowry comparisons at Louisville.
SG: DeRozan, Ross, Powell vs. Bradley, Turner, Hunter
A small confession: I love Evan Turner. The Villain just kills me, and he’s a nice luxury as a multi-position reserve who can act as a lead ball-handler at times. Bradley, meanwhile, can be a menace on defense and has improved his outside shooting to the point where his four-year, $32-million deal looks like a bargain in the new cap environment. He’ll give DeRozan some trouble and is less likely to bite on the foul-drawing trickery, and the fact that the Celtics can switch most everything one-through-three could make it tough for DeRozan to get into the teeth of the defense. Functioning as a distributor, as he did when he struggled with his shot to start Wednesday, needs to be his response.
SF: Carroll, Johnson, Caboclo vs. Crowder, Jerebko, Young
I wouldn’t expect to see Carroll and Crowder matched up on each other exclusively. Both teams are probably going to experiment with cross-matching on the perimeter and will switch willingly, and it almost seems a waste to task two defense-first players with checking each other. Still, Carroll showed enough as a playmaker Wednesday and is a strong enough shooter that Boston can’t just hide someone on him, lest Carroll bleed them with sharp cuts and heady passes. Crowder, meanwhile, has flashed improved range and playmaking of his own.
PF: Patterson, Scola, Bennett vs. Lee, Olynyk, Sullinger, Mickey
It’s tough to group the Boston bigs into power forwards and centers, but this is a best guess at how they’ll play. Lee and Olynyk are both dangerous as mid-range shooters and as elbow facilitators, and the Raptors’ fours will have their hands full. Toronto not hedging as much on pick-and-rolls should prevent the four-on-three situations Boston is looking for off of high screens, but either big with the ball on the move is going to force Toronto into some tough decisions. Factor in some intelligent off-ball players on the perimeter, and Valanciunas is going to have to have his head on a swivel as the last line of defense.
C: Valanciunas, Biyombo, Nogueira vs. Zeller, Johnson
This should be a good test for Valanciunas’ progress as a defensive decision maker. There’s going to be a lot going on around him, and while the Raptors won’t ask him to venture from the rim to help on guards, most of the Boston bigs can shoot enough to draw him out of the paint. Johnson also knows Valanaciunas well enough to make turnovers a concern, as it’s not as if the book on the Lithuanian’s offensive game is all that complicated. Another strong two-way showing from Valanciunas would be encouraging, and he should be able to make hay with his post offense when Johnson’s not on the floor.
Outsider’s Edge
Normally, this is where we’ll go back and forth with a blogger from the opposing side. It won’t always happen, like today.
The Line
The Raptors are 2.5-point underdogs with a 203 over-under. I expected a slower pace in the opener but thanks to a barrage of free throws on both sides, the game was played at a very fast (or rather, high-possession) pace. Hearing Casey talk about pushing the tempo is more about getting quality shots earlier in the clock rather than grinding out possessions for fouls, and so I’d lean slightly to the over here. The Raptors want to play a bit faster, the Celtics should be a top-five team for pace at season’s end, and Toronto should be able to live at the free-throw line and lengthen the game against these bigs.
It’s homerism to predict a victory on another team’s court for their home opener, but the Raptors are 1-0. Optimism abounds until it doesn’t. Raptors win, 107-102.
