The Toronto Raptors will look to extend the best start in franchise history on Friday when they visit the Orlando Magic. At 5-0 and coming off of a gutty win against the Thunder, the Raptors should be riding high. A visit to a 1-4 team following a major win with the Miami Heat on the horizon would normally be cause to circle this as a potential trap game, but taking an opponent lightly or not showing up for a game doesn’t seem to be in the genetic makeup of this team.
It’s hard not to be optimistic right now with how well the Raptors have started, especially on the defensive end. The Magic should prove challenging, but they struggle on offense and their spacing can be choked in certain lineups. The absence of Nikola Vucevic, who suffered a bone bruise in his knee Wednesday, complicates matters further for the Magic, taking away perhaps their most reliable offensive weapon – the team was 2.5 points per-100 possessions better on offense with Vucci Mane last season, a number that’s bumped to 3.4 through five games this year.
The Magic have to hope Dewayne Dedmon is ready to contribute, as he likely stands to start in Vucevic’s absence. Dedmon is a terrific rebounder and a solid rim protector, but he’s found wanting on the offensive end of the floor. He’ll present a challenge for Jonas Valanciunas, but the Raptors can get pretty aggressive helping off of him on defense, affording Valanciunas the opportunity to freelance near the rim. The more concerning counter to Vucevic’s absence may be if the Magic opt to go spacey with Channing Frye at the five, which would pull Valanciunas or Bismack Biyombo out of the paint, making things easier on the Magic guards.
Raptors @ Magic, 7 p.m., Sportsnet One
It’s another night where the Raptors may be best served going small, this time to match their opponent. The Magic employ a pair of feisty two-way guards who should put the pressure on Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan defensively. With a strong backup one and a handful of wings who can shift between two-three-four depending on the opponent, the Magic aren’t an easy team to contain, even though they rank 19th in offensive efficiency so far.
The Raptors have a few significant advantages. Even with Vucevic, the Magic are a below-average rebounding team. Toronto ranks second in total rebound percentage so far, and the Magic are one of the league’s worst defensive rebounding outfits. Whether the Raptors crash the offensive glass to take advantage or get back in transition is an interesting choice facing head coach Dwane Casey. Offensive rebounds often lead to easy points, but the Magic are a dangerous team in the open court and the Raptors have been ineffective with their own transition defense.
That’s in part due to an uncharacteristically high turnover rate for Toronto so far, an issue that’s exploitable for an aggressive Magic defense. Orlando’s aggression has them in the top 10 for opponent turnover percentage early on, but that same aggression also has them sending opponents to the line at a top-10 rate. That’s not going to fly against the Raptors, who have gone to the line more than all but one other team in the league and absolutely live off of late-clock bailouts.
There are a lot of potentially fun lineups and counters in this game. The absence of Vucevic could force the Magic to go smaller, something the Raptors have been not only willing but effective in doing themselves so far. Expect the “closing unit” – the starters with Cory Joseph in place of Luis Scola – to see another long look against springier Magic lineups. That lineup for Toronto has outscored opponents by 22 points in 15 minutes so far this year.
Magic Rundown
The Magic have played much better than their 1-4 record would indicate. They’ve been underdogs in all five of their games and have beat the spread on every occasion, putting up impressive fights against Washington (lost by one), Oklahoma City (lost by three in double overtime), Chicago (lost by five on the road), and Houston (lost by five in overtime on the road). They also beat Anthony Davis and the Pelicans, although that team is a flaming tire fire right now, so the victory doesn’t mean quite as much as it may otherwise.
The Magic also have the potential to be a lot of fun. Aaron Gordon and Tobias Harris are an intriguing pair of combo-forwards who can change positions seamlessly. Harris is the better offensive player, but Gordon is a ton of fun and is basically a defensive amoeba. They’ve only played six minutes together on the season, but I think there’s a lot of potential for the pairing, particularly when C.J. Watson is in at point and/or Channing Frye masquerades as a small center, thereby limiting some of the spacing issues that may come up.
They’re also fun at guard, where Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo make up one of the most annoying defensive backcourts going. Oladipo took major strides moving to shooting guard last season, and he complements his tenacious defense with great secondary play-making, aggressive forays to the rim, and strong rebounding from the guard spot. The jury is still out on his jumper, which needs to be a league-average weapon to make this backcourt sustainable in the long-run, as Payton doesn’t have much semblance of an outside shot. Payton does, however, create for teammates well and is can be very creative finding seams in the defense. His real value comes in his ability to lock up opposing guards.
With those two pairings, Nikola Vucevic (injured), the Swag God Mario Hezonja, and an emerging Evan Fournier (get that money, Don’t Google), the Magic are going to be a tough kill most nights. They’re probably a year away from a playoff spot unless new head coach Scott Skiles works his turnaround magic in short order, but the future could be bright here.
Injury Report
Toronto: All clear
Orlando: Nikola Vucevic (knee) will not play
Positional Breakdown
PG: Lowry, Joseph, Wright vs. Payton, Watson, Napier
Payton is going to make Lowry work for his offense, that much is for sure. The Louisiana-Lafayette product is a pest on defense, getting up in jerseys, poking balls loose, and effectively angling off attacks with his length. He’s also an aggressive driver, but one who isn’t a strong finisher at the rim. The Raptors can safely go under any Payton screens, daring him to take mid-range jumpers. Watson is a bigger threat from outside, particularly in the corners, but he’s not nearly the creator for others that Payton or Oladipo (who can run point in a pinch) are. He’s a quality defender, too, and there aren’t many lineup iterations that will have Raptors guards scoring easily. Still, the Raptors have the edge here.
SG: DeRozan, Ross, Powell vs. Oladipo, Marble
I’m a pretty big Oladipo fan, even if his defensive metrics haven’t quite caught up with what the eye test shows. He’s not going to lose DeRozan around screens and he’s not prone to sending his check to the line, having cut his foul rate last year and again so far this season. DeRozan can get his shot off over Oladipo, but he’ll need to be wary of getting stripped on his more elaborate fakes to draw fouls, as Oladipo has quick hands. Oladipo functions as a secondary ball-handler alongside Payton, so DeRozan will be working at that end of the floor, too. Marble’s listed as the backup here, but the Magic are more likely to use Watson, Fournier, and Hezonja, as this is a team that isn’t bound much by traditional positions.
SF: Carroll, Johnson, Caboclo vs. Fournier, Hezonja
Fournier’s off to a terrific start on the season, averaging 20.6 points on 56.3-percent true shooting. I’m not sure that’s entirely sustainable, as he’s hitting 2-point field goals at a rate far above his established standard. Getting to the line a bit more needs to be a real change, and he’s a quality, high-volume 3-point shooter. It will be interesting to see if the Raptors opt to have Carroll check Fournier and chase him around the perimeter or task DeRozan with that – Fournier isn’t a willing passer off the bounce, so defending him is a little more straight-forward than an Oladipo or Harris. At the other end, Fournier is fairly exploitable, susceptible to getting lost on cuts and being shot over (he blocked two shots all of last season). I wish we were going to see 48 minutes of Hezonja, but he’s played pretty sparingly so far. Dude will shoot and talk trash.
PF: Patterson, Scola, Bennett vs. Harris, Gordon, Nicholson
I’m a big Aaron Gordon fan and think he has the potential to be a major difference-maker defensively. He can probably guard three positions effectively, which opens up a lot of cross-matching opportunities for Orlando. Gordon needs to eventually start knocking down mid-range shots more reliably, lest he get pigeonholed as a defender who can only score in the open court. Harris is far more polished offensively and is a major threat from the corners. He can create for himself, too, and he’ll find easy baskets in the flow of the offense. He’s less of a defender than Gordon and not always the most aware, so it may be worth trying to put him in some pick-and-pop situations with Patterson and Scola, forcing him to make choices.
C: Valanciunas, Biyombo, Nogueira vs. Dedmon, Frye, Smith
Here’s your major edge for the game, now that Vucevic is out. Dedmon protects the rim and rebounds the hell out of the ball, but he’s a career reserve who probably won’t play more than 25 minutes. Frye and Smith are tough options because they’ll pull Valanciunas away from the rim, but Valanciunas will be able to go to work on the block against either. The Lithuanian has struggled against the Magic in the past, but I’d expect a pretty big game out of him Friday.
The Line
The Raptors opened as 5.5-point favorites this morning but the line quickly bumped to six, with 58 percent of the public action still falling Toronto’s way. That’s a lot of confidence in a team playing their third road game in four nights and probably speaks to the Vucevic absence, too. Interestingly, both teams are 5-0 against the spread this season, so something has to give. I’m taking the under at 198 and giving the Magic the benefit of the doubt with a cover – but a loss – at home.
Raptors 99, Magic 96.
