I was reading Kirk Goldsberry’s excellent piece yesterday on the decline of Kobe Bryant and there was a quote from Chris Paul about the Mamba that stood out to me.
“It’s like he was getting to a spot. Looking at that play, it’s like there was an ‘X’ somewhere on the court and Kobe was like, ‘Once I get to it, I’m like, boom.’ ”
Paul was talking about a particular Kobe shot from the 2006 playoffs, but it just as well could have been a quote describing the design of the Raptors offense last season, where everything was designed to try and get particular player’s their most comfortable shots from very particular spots on the floor. While some of that approach has stayed the same for player’s like DeRozan, it’s changed for Lowry, and gone are the high users of Vasquez and Williams, replaced instead with Joseph and Carroll. Let’s take a 538 inspired deep look at how the numbers are telling us that this year’s offense is different from a season ago.
The first place to look is at shooting. The Raptors are shooting less pull up jumpers and more catch and shoot, according to the player tracking numbers at NBA.com’s stats database. The Raps are also shooting a little more frequently from inside 10ft. Both of those things are good signs. Carrying with that positive trend, the Raptors are shooting 3s better by and large. They’re shooting much better on their open 3s, and worse on their tightly covered 3s, which could be because Lou Will hit a preposterous number of poorly selected shots last season, but they’re also shooting much less of those well covered 3s for the same reason. The Raptors are getting less open shots on average by a few percentage points this season than last, missing the effective screens of Amir Johnson and too often having possessions that drag into the final moments of the shot clock when choice is taken away from whether or not to shoot.
DeMar DeRozan is shooting a disappointing but unsurprising 22% from deep. More of a let down has been the 34% from Patterson and the 28% from Ross. Corey Joseph shooting 36% and Scola hitting a ridiculous 50% from deep have been huge wins, as has been the even better than assumed 42% and 38% from Lowry and Carroll. Scola has already hit more 3s this season than the rest of his career combined. For his part, Joseph’s improved 3 point shooting fits in along his career long trend of improved shooting, mirroring his career best numbers from a season ago. If both or even one of Ross and Patterson can rediscover their stroke, the Raptors could be a very good shooting team. Which is why it’s a little surprising that the team is shooting less of them. 3-point shots are down, from 30% of the teams field goal attempts last year to 27% of them this season. However, despite the distance shooting struggles of Patterson, Ross and DeRozan, the team is shooting an improved 36% from 3 as opposed to 35% a year ago. Not a huge increase, but it helps. More importantly though, the Raptors are up to 11th in the league from an embarrassing 28th a season ago in terms of % of their 3s that are assisted. The Raptors are also getting more of their attempts from the corner so far this season. Together, this is reason to trust in the increased shooting%, and even expect it to continue to rise slightly as catch and shoot and open 3s are much more likely to go in over a large sample size.
Surprisingly, given the departure of Lou Will, the Raptors have actually played even more iso this year than last. The 2015-16 Raps are getting about 15% of their shots out of possessions where the shooter has had the ball for 6 seconds or more before releasing. On those opportunities, the Raps are shooting 40% from the floor and 16% from 3. Yes, they’re running a top 10 offense, but you also aren’t crazy to think that things look really bad when they get bogged down.
Perhaps the most important element of the Raptor’s offense has been the carry over of the team’s ability to continually get to the line, lead by DeMar DeRozan. The Raps are tied for the lead league in free throw attempts per field goal attempt, up from 4th a year ago. Free throws have accounted for about a fifth of Toronto’s points this year, a huge number. They’ve also jumped 4 spots from 11th to 7th in offensive rebounding. The second chance points created off of fouls drawn and offensive rebounds are buoying an otherwise average or worse offense. But when you can rebound and get to the line like they have, that’s ok. Just remember how much harder it is to do those things once it comes time for playoffs.
One of the few bad changes from last season to this one has been turnovers. A season ago the Raptors were one of the best teams in the league in terms of protecting the ball, and they spent a good portion of the season leading the league in turnover%. That isn’t the case this year, as their sloppiness has resulted in a turnover% that falls in with the bottom third of the league. Turbo Kyle Lowry is great, but one downside has been an increase in turnovers. DeRozan has also seen an increase in his turnovers.
Ball movement, despite some games where it’s looked much improved, has continued to be a fault. Overall, the Raptors are just as bad and maybe even worse at generating shots that are assisted. While they’ve greatly improved at moving the ball around the wing for better 3 point looks, they’ve gotten even worse at passing to generate good shot attempts from within 3 point range, which accounts for the much higher volume of their shots (74% of them!).
A year ago, the Raptors had dunks on just 4% of their shots and were nearly the league worst at generating layups. While dunks have fallen off, the Raptors have made up that ground and a little bit more by getting a much-improved number of their shots as layups. This year’s Raptors team is a bad mid range shooting team. They’re well below NBA averages, which aren’t good to begin with, between 10 feet and 3-point range. That’s not a damning number, really it’s just a continued argument for why the Raptors should take less of those shots, particularly DeMar DeRozan, whose insistence on isolation mid range jumpers over ball movement is the biggest hurdle holding him back from being a deadly efficient offensive player given his ability to draw free throws.
That’s the breakdown moving from last season to this one. The team is good but not great from 3, excellent from within 3 feet and good from the free throw line. In a league where you should be striving for the Moreyball 3s, layups and free throws, their talents lie in the right areas for efficiency. Better ball movement, less isolation and continuing to get to the line could make the Raptors a dangerous offense to contend with.
