Eventually, the Golden State Warriors are going to lose. It might not be Saturday when they tip off against the Toronto Raptors at 5 p.m. on TSN4, but it’s going to happen at some point.
They’re not infallible, and even The Undertaker eventually lost at Wrestlemania. The Raptors are hardly Brock Lesnar, coming off of jobbing to the Zack Ryder Denver Nuggets. The Warriors are the league’s most lethal offense and a top-five defense, but there are tiny areas that may prove exploitable.
Here are a few areas to focus on when trying to break the streak.
Harrison Barnes is out
OK, this isn’t really something the Raptors did or can do, but it’s worth noting that Barnes will miss the game with an ankle sprain. The Warriors are so deep that it probably doesn’t matter a ton; they start Brandon Rush in his place and lean more heavily on Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston off the bench.
His absence does serve to take away the Warriors’ best lineup, which is when Iguodala joins the starters in place of Andrew Bogut. Not dissimilar to the Raptors’ own preferred closing group, that lineup has eviscerated teams. They still have options – Saturday’s starters have also crushed teams together, and Festus Ezeli joining Iguodala with Steph Curry-Klay Thompson-Draymond Green has been really effective – but it’s one less option for Luke Walton, and one less 3-point threat to worry about.
Defending the Curry-Green pick-and-roll
This is an unstoppable play. You hedge and double Curry high, he slips a pocket pass to Green to lead a resultant four-on-three. Green’s too damn good a passer and playmaker to survive doing that, but the other option is to not double Curry, so what are you going to do?
I think if I’m the Raptors, I task Cory Joseph with fighting over Curry screens and opt not to double hard. It may seem crazy, but Joseph is one of the best in the league at fighting through and around screens, and even though Bismack Biyombo would be an effective weapon hedging, the Green-led attack was killer last time out.
I wouldn’t do this with Kyle Lowry, however, because…
Lowry needs to go off
Curry is an adequate defender but nothing great, and most close Warriors games have involved the opposing point guard going off. It’s a tough thing to ask considering the defensive toll guarding Curry takes (hence helping Lowry in high screen situations), but Lowry had a strong outing last time around and was playing his best ball up until Thursday.
If Curry’s going off, and he probably is, Lowry has to get some of that back. Putting Curry in foul trouble would be great, too, since the Raptors don’t have an option that can put the slightly foul-prone Green in foul trouble.
Turnovers and transition threes
The Warriors turn the ball over a lot. It’s not really a flaw in their offense, because there aren’t any, but they’re in the top ten for total turnovers and live-ball turnovers. The Raptors do well to force these, too, but they’re not particularly effective making opponents pay. They simply have to take advantage of these miscues and can some threes in transition. Failing to do so leaves too many points on the table in the one area the Warriors are willing to give you some.
Get weird
Get funky with the rotations. I’d be using James Johnson as a center, perhaps even Patrick Patterson as a center, and ditching Biyombo or Lucas Nogueira at the first sign of trouble on the defensive end. If you were ever going to try something out of the box, the Warriors when Green slides to center present a reasonable time to do so.
The Line
The Raptors are 7.5-point underdogs at home. They had Friday off, but the Warriors have had two days off. Barnes’ absence looms, but the Warriors are so deep and so talented it doesn’t change things a ton. The Raptors are probably going to lose, because everyone loses to the Warriors. Literally.
But maybe, just maybe, this will be me on Sunday morning:
For more analysis, everything from the game preview from two weeks ago still holds.
