Fresh off of another loss to the Chicago Bulls, the Toronto Raptors kick off a five-game road trip with a quick turnaround in Ohio, visiting the Cleveland Cavaliers at 7 p.m. on Sportsnet (it’s on most Sportsnet channels). In the interest of full disclosure, I’m filling in for the pre-game on short notice, so we’re going to do this rapid fire style.
What happened last time?
Last time out, the Raptors played really well at home against the Cavs, taking a 103-99 decision to stay undefeated on Drake Night. Kevin Love was hot from outside and LeBron James lived at the free-throw line but Kyle Lowry was at his very best and the Raptors got solid contributions from all nine players who played.
What’s different this time?
The key difference in that game compared to Monday is that the Raptors were without Jonas Valanciunas. So things should be even better, right? Well, the Cavs were also without Kyrie Irving, Matthew Dellavedova, and Timofey Mozgov, so not really. With four key rotation players back between the two teams, this game should look a lot different.
Obviously those returns favor Cleveland. Irving brings an additional scoring punch that will make it a tough night at the office for Lowry, and Dellavedova brings a frustrating presence to throw at both Lowry and DeRozan for stretches. Mozgov hasn’t been nearly as good this season as last, but he handles the pick-and-roll well on defense and gives the Cavs enough capable bigs – Tristan Thompson has been great of late alongside Love – that they’ll almost always have a rebounding edge. That could make it tough for the Raptors to play their preferred four-out-and-a-center lineups late, though head coach Dwane Casey could also accept the rebounding loss to help goose the offense in that way.
In any case, the Cavs were dangerous before and they’re even more dangerous now.
Is this a schedule loss?
The second night of a back-to-back, having hosted the second-best team in the East and now visiting the best team in the East, one that’s been off since Saturday, it certainly seems like a schedule loss. These Raptors, as a reminder, don’t have such things – they play better than expected all the time, choosing to save their poor outings for against lesser competition, save for a few instances.
OK, but is it a loss?
The oddsmakers have the Raptors as eight-point underdogs, a line not really befitting the records of the two teams (22-9, 21-14). THe Raptors have been a little better on offense (fifth vs. seventh) but worse on defense (11th vs. third) and the Cavs are firing on all cylinders right now, winning three in a row and nine of 11. The Cavs are really, really good.
So, yeah, it’s probably a loss. Depending on this next subheading, at least.
What’s the biggest storyline here?
Despite the great Lowry-Irving matchup being a must-see one every time out and a battle for the starting point guard spot in the East for the All-Star Game, the biggest story to me is DeMarre Carroll. He’s been painfully open that he’s not 100 percent, and guarding James at anything less than 100 percent is a terrifying thought. Carroll did a fine job back in November and looked like he had found his footing earlier this week, but if he can’t do the things he wants to do on defense, it might be worth considering sitting him down again.
I know, I’m not a doctor. Maybe he’s fine playing through it and there isn’t risk of further injury. We can never really assume to know the best course of action for a player’s health. But in Carroll’s case, with the amount of time he’s had off, to still not be at 100 percent…he’s too important to what this team hopes to do in April to force him to fight through this now. After Saturday, the Raptors play just once in eight days, so he’s set for a bit of (physical) rest anyway, but on the second night of a back-to-back, going Butler-to-James, I’d consider maybe sitting him down Monday.
It’s probably a loss, anyway, so it’s not a bad night for it. Then again, this Raptors team is so weird they might come out and stomp the Cavs with or without Carroll and definitely without explanation.
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I joined the Fear the Sword podcast yesterday to help tee up the game. Check it out.
