Last week we had to take a brief hiatus from the weekly column, so today’s 3 In The Kiy is somewhat overdue. There was plenty to cover in the past couple weeks, but the most recurring subject has been the small drop-off in form the Raptors have put forth since the all-star break. It’s a drop-off, in all fairness, that has been grossly exaggerated. The Raptors are still clicking overall and have won 70% of their games since the all-star break, yet are still getting grilled by some fans.
The criticism is somewhat understandable given the Raptors completely disintegrated last season after all-star weekend, and Raptor fans are terrified of revisiting the nightmare of an iso-heavy offense cooling off, coinciding with a defensive scheme that’s been figured out.
Post all-star funk
There is an idea floating around that the drop in defensive astuteness after the all-star break is a recurring phenomenon on its own – that an inevitable collapse is coming, and the Raptors will leave the first round of the playoffs (again) with their tails between their legs. Is there anything to that, though? Sure, the debacle the Raptors went through after New York 2015 has become notorious, and the Raptors’ defensive drop since the all-star break has struck fear into some fans, but the entire idea is also incredibly premature.
The defensive issues the team currently suffers from is a hot subject, and has drawn attention from everyone in the organization, most importantly at the heart of it, with both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan acknowledging something needs to be fixed – particularly on the perimeter.
Any noise from outside – from media and fans alike – may exaggerate the ‘crisis’. The Raptors have won 7-of-10 since the break, dropping just three games despite struggling to stop the defensive bleeding entirely. They are actually one of the average defensive teams in the league since the all-star break within the arc – hovering around Golden State territory. The fact that the Warriors haven’t been much better themselves defending two-pointers could point to a small sample size alert, and besides, to reiterate, the Raptors are 7-3 despite their defensive struggles defending the three.
Within the paint, the Raptors are a top-5 defensive team post all-star break.
Their transition defense since the all-star break is even better actually the best.
The struggles defensively ultimately come down to how the Raptors manage to defend the three. That’s not necessarily a revelation, though, and it remains to be seen if the Raptors can tighten the lid on the perimeter come playoff time. Opposing wing players tend to turn on their kryptonite playing against Dwane Casey’s defensive scheme – averaging well above their season averages. The most recent cases were Damian Lillard and James Harden who not only got their own, but their spacing made it laborious for the Raptors to chase people off the three-point line.
The team as a whole is 2nd-worst in the league when it comes to allowing an opponent to shoot better than his season-average from beyond the arc, per NBA.com stats.
Defending Houston was difficult when James Harden had the ball in his hands, with the nearest defensive man caught in a pretty hard hedge towards the ball-handler – taking chances leaving a player like Cory Brewer (who shoots 29% from deep) open. Brewer uncharacteristically went off for 23 points, and big games like that from otherwise tame offensive players has been something the Raptors have had to deal with often.
Casey not messing around this morning, suggests he may start sitting guys who “aren’t getting it done” on defence.
— Josh Lewenberg (@JLew1050) March 8, 2016
Holding someone accountable in Dwane Casey’s world could really mean anything and the degree of accountability held typically varies from player to player. But it’ll be interesting to revisit this comment as the season progresses to see just how sincere Casey’s comment was. Last night Casey opted to rest Luis Scola while inserting the newly acquired Jason Thompson. While admittedly I missed last night’s match-up due to some deadlines I was slammed with, and won’t be the best person to evaluate how Thompson fared defending the perimeter, I’ve been chirping around with the idea of demoting Scola for a while now.
Of the top three rotational fours on the team, Scola is the worst when it comes to defending stretch bigs – an area typically where the Raptors get roasted. There was always a concern that a Patterson / Scola swap in the rotation would weaken the second unit, but that concern might be lessened now that Thompson – a younger and energetic two-way player – has arrived.
Those jumping the gun and pointing to the ‘recurring theme’ that the Raptors are collapsing just like last season should hold their judgement for the time being. All across the board, the post all-star ’16 Raptors are significantly better than post all-star ’15 Raptors. Their winning percentage is dramatically higher, as is their +/-, 3P%, FG%, and turnover rate.
Is James Harden a top-10 player?
Who knows. It’s so subjective, and the way the Rockets’ season has unfolded, you probably wouldn’t be held accountable for your words if you opted not to include him. Some people grilled me when I proclaimed him to still be a top-10 nominee in Sunday’s Gameday – but I still stand by it. The Rockets’ depth chart has been weak all season, and it’s tough to blame it all on Harden, given he’s also surrounded by complete turmoil. Harden is not a two-way beast, but his offense is still completely prolific, and he’s certainly among the leagues top game-changing players.
So I’m going to just leave this list here – with no intention of attaching an opinion to it – and see what unfolds in the comments section.
Based on a combination of this season’s performance and overall talent:
Steph Curry
LeBron James
Kawhi Leonard
Draymond Green
Anthony Davis
Kevin Durant
Russel Westbrook
Kyle Lowry
Paul George
DeMarcus Cousins
Keeping an eye
Hey, the Nuggets and Knicks are both spiraling, and it’s fantastic. Unfortunately one of them had to win last night (given they faced each other), but the Raptors will still reap the benefits of Masai’s ingenious draft pick acquisitions. Here’s the latest:
