Oh boy, here we go.
Let;s start here: The Toronto Raptors have dropped eight consecutive meetings against the Chicago Bulls. There is a non-zero chance the Raptors will also draw the Bulls in the playoffs. To say that Monday represents a major game for the Raptors may or may not be accurate, we can’t really be sure. To say it’s a pivotal game for a fan base that is still hesitant to buy in completely after what happened in the playoffs the last two years, a segment of which thinks this team isn’t actually any better than prior editions of the squad, and who may feel a bit of an inferiority compared to an admittedly good Eastern Conference foe that may not even make the playoffs, well, yeah. It’s probably huge.
Here’s the biggest reason it’s important for fans worried about the Bulls, even if they don’t realize it: Beating the Bulls would push Chicago 2.5 games back of Indiana for the No. 7 spot in the East, Toronto’s likely opponent.
The Raptors can still catch Cleveland for the No. 1 seed, which complicates that some, but given the Raptors’ stated desire to get key players additional rest down the stretch, and given how little time is left to make up 2.5 games of their own, it seems unlikely. And so beating the Bulls likely decreases the chances the Raptors draw the Bulls in the playoffs. Ironically, losing to the Bulls would increase the psychological hurdle while making the matchup more likely, while beating the Bulls and getting the monkey off their back would render the potential relevance of said monkey almost null.
And, because the Raptors and Bulls share this kind of strange history together, and nothing can ever be simple, Monday isn’t straightforward. Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah are out, Jimmy Butler and Cameron Bairstow are questionable, and Derrick Rose is doubtful – even if the Raptors finally land a victory against Chicago, many will throw it out as meaningless.
So, as with all things in life, I ask, what’s the point? The game tips off at 7:30 on Sportsnet One if you’re down for embracing the negative capability.
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To help set the stage for the game, we reached out to Chicago-via-Portland friend of the site Sean Highkin of Bleacher Report and Pro Basketball Talk, who kindly helped us out.
Blake Murphy: Raptors fans are generally pretty terrified of drawing Chicago in the first-round of the playoffs. It’s essentially a worst-case scenario, to produce a franchise-best season yet again, only to (potentially) lose in the first round for a third consecutive season to a team that’s had them snakebitten since they upset the 72-10 Bulls. The Raptors have dropped eight in a row and 17 of 21 against Chicago, dating back to the end of 2009-10, and while there’s been a ton of roster turnover and all-time head-to-head records generally tell you nothing, it’s a psychological hurdle for Raptors fans, and maybe the Raptors themselves. Run-on sentences also remain a problem in Toronto, apparently.
But…Chicago may not even make the playoffs. They’re one game out and, more notably for Toronto, two back of the No. 7 seed, Toronto’s likely opponent. With Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose (and now Pau Gasol) in and out of the lineup and Joakim Noah long gone, are the Bulls even going to make the playoffs? Can they grab the seven-seed?
Sean Highkin: I’ve been a Bulls playoff optimist over the last month, but this coming week is going to be make-or-break. Reading the tea leaves, Butler seems ready to return, but Rose might not be, and Gasol is out at least the next two games with swelling in his knee. The Bulls have four games this week, including the Raptors and Wizards. If they can go 2-2 or 3-1, their playoff chances look much better. But if they lose three or four of these games, things look dicier, especially with the Hawks, Grizzles, Heat and Cavs still to come.
Blake Murphy: OK, so the Bulls get in and draw the Raptors. Assuming Butler and Rose at 80 percent each, but present for each game, who wins and in how many games?
Sean Highkin: If DeMarre Carroll is healthy, Raptors in seven. If not, Bulls in six.
Blake Murphy: This is a terrible question for a quick Q&A format, but in broad terms, how has Fred Hoiberg performed in terms of in-game tactics in his first year with the team? Raptors fans fear Dwane Casey getting out-coached in most first-round hypotheticals, but Hoiberg hasn’t exactly gotten a reputation as a chess-master.
Sean Highkin: As far as college coaches making the jump to the pros, Hoiberg hasn’t been a complete disaster, but he certainly hasn’t earned the type of reputation Brad Stevens has as a master in-game adjuster. He’s certainly been more flexible with his rotations than Tom Thibodeau ever was, for better and for worse. I’d say the coaching matchup between him and Dwane Casey is a wash, with the slight edge going to Casey.
Blake Murphy: Bobby Portis remains “the one they let get away” for some fans who see a need at power forward and the superfluous Delon Wright and wonder what gives. Portis came on really strong when initially given a chance, fought through what appeared to be a rookie wall for a strong February, but now appears to be back on the fringes of playing time, or at least effectiveness. Is he still someone the Bulls are really excited about, and how much would he be trusted in a playoff series?
Sean Highkin: With Gasol in and out of the lineup and Noah done for the year, Portis is going to have to play whether he’s ready or not. The organization is still very high on him despite his recent struggles, and most of his flaws at this point are decision-making and positioning on defense, which seem like rookie stuff that’s not going to be a problem in the long term. He’s going to be very good, just not immediately.
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The rotations are going to look something like this, depending on who actually ends up in or out. The guess here is that James Johnson gets the start if Butler plays, and if Butler sits, Norman Powell gets another look in the starting lineup.
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, Wright vs. Rose, Aaron Brooks
SG: DeMar DeRozan, T.J. Ross, Powell vs. Butler, E’Twaun Moore, Justin Holiday
SF: Johnson vs. Mike Dunleavy, Doug McDermott, Tony Snell
PF: Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson, Jason Thompson vs. Nikola Mirotic, Portis, Cristiano Felicio
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Bismack Biyombo, Lucas Nogueira vs.Taj Gibson, Bairstow
As of midnight Sunday, the game was off the board.
