Game 7 preview roundtable

The Toronto Raptors will host the Indiana Pacers for a Game 7 on Sunday.

This, despite the Raptors playing 18 good minutes out of the last 144, despite having coughed up home-court advantage in Game 1, and despite abysmal shooting from their All-Star backcourt. Through those lenses, it’s a minor miracle the Raptors have a chance to close out at the Air Canada Centre. At the same time, the Raptors also played great in Games 2 and 3, lost the plot and have played poorly, and entered as heavy favorites in the series, believed to be a superior team. Through those lenses, the necessity of a Game 7 is frustrating.

To make matters more maddening, or at least less clear, nearly every game in the series has been a blowout, determined as much by factors like energy, intensity, and toughness as pick-and-roll coverage, spacing, and crunch-time execution. It makes it quite hard to figure Game 7 out, because we don’t even know which team(s) might show up.

So as we’ve done at several key junctures in the series, we reached out to others to try to help color the picture in more brightly. We reached out to Ian Levy of FanSided/HP and Jared Wade of 8 Points, 9 Seconds, who I owe multiple beverages to for their assistance in helping cover this series, and we brought our own alum William Lou into the mix, too. Here we go, trying to get a handle on things once again.

1. So, uhh, Game 6 happened. That’s maybe two good quarters the Raptors have played in the last three games. Does that create a sense of confidence for Indiana heading into Game 7?

Ian Levy: I’m a Pacers fan, we’re not confident about anything. Ever. I wrote about this earlier in the series for FanSided, but I feel like one of the fundamental experiences of being a Pacers fan is watching your team inexplicably fall apart when it matters most. It would not surprise me if Paul George had a great game and the Pacers grabbed a win. It would also not surprise me if he shot 2-12 on mid-range jumpers, and everyone else just completely fell apart. Everything in between feels like it’s in play.

William Lou (substitute “Toronto” for “Indiana in the question): No. This is what I’m most worried about. Dwane Casey and the coaching staff won’t be able to point to any sustained stretch as an example of what the Raptors need to do, or how they need to play, so they’re heading into the game blind. The frantic fourth quarter in Game 5 was mostly panic-induced scrambling, and there’s no way the Raptors can break their own style of play and maintain that energy for 48 minutes.

Jared Wade: I would think so. The Pacers can be a bit front-runner-y. When they play well, they can feed off that. We’ve clearly seen a lot of it lately, with Indiana really dominating 7 of the past 8 quarters. I think everyone in the organization feels like this series should be over already, but they let the fourth quarter get away in Game 5. There are two ways that can go: Indiana coming out all business and executing in Game 7, or having the early minutes go poorly and curling up into a fetal position. I don’t think anyone alive really has any read on how this team will respond. They’ve been unpredictable all season.

Blake Murphy: I’d lean yes in most circumstances, but the ebbs and flows of this series haven’t really followed convention much. I thought the Raptors had control after Game 3. I thought the Pacers had it after three quarters of Game 5. I would have bet the Game 5 collapse was the end of the Pacers, especially when Toronto got out to a hot start in Game 6. In other words – yes, they’re probably confident, but this series has taught us that momentum swings quickly.

2. As much as we’ve talked about adjustments, scheme tweaks, rotations, and so on – and those have been important – there’s a palpable sense that the series keeps swinging on intangibles. Hunger, physicality, desperation. All of those words keep coming up, and for me, it’s frustrating as all get out, because that stuff is inexplicable and unpredictable. With both teams’ backs firmly against the wall in a Game 7 scenario, is that wavering intensity edge going to be mitigated?

Ian Levy: I think it’s come back to things like intangibles and shot-making because both teams have struggled to execute. Valanciunas physical dominance looked so important in the first two games because nothing was going right for Lowry and DeRozan. George’s exerting his will seems so important because no one else can seem to put the ball in the basket consistently. I think it’s still probably going to come down to getting points on messy plays and disjointed basketball.

William Lou: Who knows? The Raptors promised to treat Game 6 like an elimination game, then completely rolled over. They lost their cool in the second half, their offense completely unravelled and spoiled floor balance for the defense, and save for some hustle plays by Kyle Lowry, the team didn’t show any fight. It’s also not a good look when DeMar DeRozan is wearing the body language of a ghost. I’d almost want him to pick up a tech just to show his team that their supposed star player is engaged in the series.

Jared Wade: In the sense that such things can be measured, the Raptors still have an edge in offensive rebounding. Even while getting roasted in Game 6, they out-scored the Pacers 24-8 in second-chance points. Lately, Jonas Valanciunas hasn’t made the same impact that he did in Games 2 and 3, but he has still been tough for Indiana to keep off the glass.

Otherwise, the Pacers clearly are forcing Toronto in bad spots through defensive intensity and execution. Paul George is dialed in and, for whatever reason, Kyle Lowry just can’t get comfortable shooting-wise. Some of this is indeed the desperation and physicality you mention, but part of it is simply a focused, dialed-in Pacers approach. I can’t see that sliding in Game 7. As we saw early in Game 6, the Raptors can still score and get good looks at times. But they will have to maintain that a lot longer than they did to avoid another first-round exit.

Blake Murphy: I think it will be insomuch as both teams are going to show up. No matter the flow of the series, I have a hard time believing that either team will stay home for a Game 7. That means that the onus shifts back to actual basketball, which the Pacers have been playing better. The Raptors can’t seem to keep control of the ball, thanks in large part to Indiana’s defense, and that’s feeding Indiana’s non-Paul George offense. That’s troubling, but a root cause has been Toronto playing so listlessly for stretches. They won’t do that Sunday, and I still maintain that a here-to-play Raptors team is better. Essentially, “The Raptors are better, but they have to play like it for that to matter,” as I wrote after Game 1.

3. What’s the one primary adjustment you’d make if you were Dwane Casey?

Ian Levy: I’d roll with Biyombo-Patterson-Lowry-Joseph a lot. Split minutes for DeRozan, Carroll and Powell as the fifth with that group.

William Lou: Less DeRozan, more Cory Joseph. I’d try to play every card I have to make it a slow, defense-first game. If they can’t find Jonas Valanciunas on offense (the Pacers have swarmed him like crazy), then take the hit and play Bismack Biyombo. I’m playing the ground game, cherishing possessions, playing pressuring defense, and hoping for an ugly halfcourt game. The Raptors haven’t shown a consistent ability to generate quality offense, so I’d try to shore up the defense at all costs.

Jared Wade: It seemed like Patrick Patterson wasn’t used that well. The reason to have him out there is to pull one of Indiana’s rim protectors away, but it seems like he didn’t spend enough time out on the perimeter. Now that Frank Vogel has dusted off Solomon Hill, that potential advantage may be mitigated anyway, but it seemed like he wasn’t making life hard enough for Myles Turner, whose defensive impact is lessened when he’s outside of the paint.

Blake Murphy: I’d lean more heavily on Cory Joseph. He’s been one of the team’s best players, and with Lowry struggling from outside, additional ball-handling could be a way to get Lowry a few more catch-and-shoot looks instead of off-dribble ones, and it should help the flow of the offense (while also helping the defense…Joseph’s such a luxury). Some of those minutes should come at the expense of DeRozan, some with DeRozan sliding to the three, and even the four. Joseph and DeRozan really haven’t gotten it going together, mind you, so maybe it’s not all that workable.

The dual point-guard look has been particularly effective with Biyombo in at center, too, so if the Pacers continue to snuff out the Lowry-Valanciunas pick-and-roll with hard hedging like in the second half of Game 6, I have no problem leaning on the rangy, switchable, defense-first big despite Valanciunas’ edge inside (if Valanciunas is feasting again, it’s tough to go away from him, and it’s a little tougher to go small with him at the pivot, though it’s been moderately successful for short stretches thanks to Valanciunas’ improved play dropping back against guards).

4. What’s the one primary adjustment you’d make if you were Frank Vogel?

Ian Levy: Trim Ellis’ minutes and give George Hill a lot more responsibility for ball-handling and shot creation. I think he has a much higher ceiling in that role than Ellis does and they just need to get him more involved offensively. His usage rate for the series is 15.3. That’s laughable.

William Lou: Vogel has done a masterful job in this series. Only adjustment I’d make is to line up Solomon Hill’s minutes with Patrick Patterson’s, while also doing the same for Myles Turner/Biyombo and Ian Mahinmi/Valanciunas. Otherwise they have solutions for all three of the Raptors’ top scorers.

Jared Wade: Null set. Aside from a horror-show fourth quarter in Game 5, he’s been pushing most of the right buttons. I personally wouldn’t give Ty Lawson even one minute and call on Paul George to go 45 minutes again — while bumping up Monta, George Hill, and Rodney Stuckey as well — but I find it unlikely that Game 7 will really hinge on whether Lawson plays 5 minutes or 0 minutes.

Blake Murphy: I’d probably bench Paul George and George Hill, play Ty Lawson 48 minutes, give the keys to the offense to Jordan Hill, and see what Rakeem Christmas can offer off the bench. (They’ve kind of figured it out, to be honest. They’ve adjusted their rotations, they’ve adjusted their pick-and-roll coverage…they could probably stand to go small when the Raptors are big to really make Toronto uncomfortable, but Vogel’s stuck to his guns for the most part, to good effect. I don’t think much changes Sunday.)