So, about that rumored pursuit of Pau Gasol: We need to talk.
The Toronto Raptors are said to be among the teams chasing the veteran Spaniard, but the potential contract terms are going to raise some eyebrows. When the Raptors were initially linked to Gasol yesterday, we discussed the potential for Gasol to take a ring-chasing discount, signing for an amount that wouldn’t require the Raptors to unload too many assets to acquire him (something in, say, the $5-8-million range). That was a stretch, as I pointed out, because there was no indication Gasol would take such a steep discount relative to the market, and because if he did, the Raptors probably wouldn’t be at the top of the contenders list (although the fact that they could make a case for Gasol’s top three says worlds about how far the organization has come).
Anyway, we can probably throw the talk of such discounts out.
That’s because the excellent Ramona Shelburne of ESPN reports that the Raptors are in the mix with Minnesota, Chicago, Portland, and San Antonio, and that his market is around $18-22 million per-season. Her colleague Marc Stein follows up by adding that Portland may lay out a two-year, $40-million offer, and Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated adds that the Wolves have made an “aggressive” two-year offer.
Gasol may not make a decision until Kevin Durant makes his – expected Sunday or Monday – as that could have a domino-effect on the league. I’d guess the biggest reason is that Durant’s decision may shape what the Spurs do and what they could offer, but it could also help Gasol determine which team provides the best combination of salary and title opportunity. The Raptors can’t match the Spurs on the latter or likely the Blazers and Wolves on the former, so the Raptors will have to hope a blend of the two, plus an international-friendly market and the salesmanship of general manager Masai Ujiri, can help swing things.
That is, if the Raptors are still interested at the reported price. In order to offer Gasol $18 million, Toronto would have to shed not only Terrence Ross but a second piece, likely Lucas Nogueira, and take back no salary in return. They could acquire draft pick equity in doing so, but in dipping below the salary cap, they’d also lose any trade exception created, as well as their mid-level and bi-annual exceptions.
Essentially, the Raptors would have this net transaction if they dealt Ross and Nogueira to give Gasol $18 million.
BEFORE
Ross
Nogueira
$5.76M cap space and $2.9M room exception OR $5.63M mid-level exception and $2.2M bi-annual exception
13 players, hole at PF1/2, SF2
AFTER
Gasol
$2.9M room exception
12 players, hold at SG2/3, SF2, C3
Picks
That’s an oversimplification, but given how tough the market appears to be on teams looking for low-salary plug-ins at the end of the roster, moving Ross (and maybe Nogueira) to land Gasol appears to be shifting weaknesses and leaving them with less recourse to fill them (which is why a straight trade for a power forward was always more likely than creating the room to sign one). And while everyone seems to want to unload Ross for nothing in a heartbeat, his contract looks more than reasonable in the new cap economy, and the team needs his shooting to help the drive-oriented offense breathe (you move him for the right player, of course, but it seems he’s become a little underrated by the fan base, frustrating as he is).
So, yeah, at that price, landing Gasol is tough, especially since the fit isn’t clean. As I wrote yesterday:
From a fit perspective, adding someone of Gasol’s offensive skill level at a below-market rate is tough to argue with. He’s no longer a defensive deterrent and would be a tough defensive pairing with Jonas Valanciunas, but the Raptors got by with Luis Scola starting alongside him, and they could always start Patrick Patterson and deploy Gasol as the offensive fulcrum of second units. Gasol will turn 36 next week, but last season for the Bulls he still averaged 16.5 points, 11 rebounds, 4.1 assists and two blocks while shooting 46.9 percent from the floor and 24-of-69 on threes (something the Raptors would ask him to take a lot more of, if Scola is any indication).
He can still offer a lot on the offensive end, more than anyone else who will seemingly be available with the Raptors’ available money. The market appears to be dictating that you’re only going to get flawed players in the Raptors’ range, and players who are largely one-way contributors may be the type you’re dealing with in this price range. There are no even remotely perfect options for the Raptors in their situation, and so it comes down to a decision as to which strengths are most desired and which weaknesses or fit issues are most tolerable. My guess is that people’s mileage on Gasol will vary a fair amount when it comes to the fit with Toronto.
Further to that, in a scenario where Nogueira is sent out to clear space, Gasol would perhaps wind up playing more center in second units, which is probably the role he’s best suited to on a team like Toronto. The team loves Jakob Poeltl but it’s tough to expect a ton from a 20-year-old center, and Gasol’s ability to play either spot on offense could give the team more room to bring Poeltl along at a methodical pace. Gasol would also stand to be quite a mentor to Poeltl and Valanciunas, and could fill the #VeteranPresents role Luis Scola would probably vacate in this scenario (or any scenario).
All told, count me out on Gasol at this price. I get everyone’s desire to do something, but trading pieces for a future return and limiting your ability to add depth from there, all to land a player who is only effective at one end of the floor at this point and who turns 36 in a few days, seems too short-sighted and reactionary. I’d sell myself on it if it happened, because few humans are as likeable as Gasol and he still offers some nice offensive punch, but the current numbers being tossed around and the requisite cap gymnastics to get to it are too much for me.
